Responsys (MKTG +40.4%) closed today at $27.40, $0.40 above Oracle's (ORCL -0.6%) $27/share acquisition price. Meanwhile, fellow cloud marketing automation software firms Marketo (MKTO +11.3%) and Constant Contact (CTCT +6.8%) closed up sharply.
Sources tell the WSJ SAP (SAP +0.8%) was "among the final bidders" for Responsys before Responsys decided to sell to Oracle. An analyst talking to the paper thinks Responsys' trading price suggests investors are betting on an SAP counteroffer arriving.
FBR, on the other hand, thinks Oracle's deal could lead either SAP or NetSuite (N +2.2%) to acquire Marketo. Both SAP (courtesy of the hybris acquisition) and NetSuite (via its SuiteCommerce platform) are major players in e-commerce infrastructure software, but neither have leading positions in online marketing automation.
Forrester argues Oracle's move will improve the company's "capable but otherwise moribund" marketing software lineup. Goldman notes Oracle is paying 8x Responsys' recurring annual revenue - a steep multiple, but less than the 11x it paid for Eloqua.