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10-year Treasury yield touches 3%

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Comments (10)
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10003) | Send Message
     
    Nominal GDP growth is 3.4%...the 10 year has been below the nominal GDP growth rate since May 2010.....
    26 Dec 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Brian Bobbitt
    , contributor
    Comments (1912) | Send Message
     
    Interest rate(s) is/are [a] strange animal(s). Be sure you are talking apples and apples. I'm not going to list all of them but they are many and varied. I think, to me, the most important one is the prime rate. That is the rate banks are charged to borrow money over short terms. For the most part, unless written different, ARMs (Adjustable Rate Mortgages) are pegged to the prime rate. So, for the most part, that is what most people rely on when deciding if rates are moving up or down. Now you are barraged with ads promoting facts about Obama raising rates and you need (or have to refinance) These ads are carnival barkers trying to lure you in to their web of fees and refinancing circus ways.
    Don't sell of buy stocks when you hear 'rates are rising' ( or falling ) because 'they' are always rising and falling. The big deal is the cost of businesses doing business and that is usually the prime rate.
    Rates must not rise substantially for a while as the NGM's control our economy, play with rates of inflation and so on.
    The 'recovery', if you want to call it that, is a lot of hot air being fed by the FED stoking the fires of industry by buying their own debt. I feel a lot of the figures you see are fluff and designed to make good window dressing, and I include employment numbers, inflation rates and so on.
    Be sure your investments are liquid and easily able to move in and out of as the NGM's play with our economic numbers.
    Remember, it is the debt monster lurking outside our doors which are attempting to devour our meager savings and earnings. Continue to paint your door frame with proper investments, and be very wary of governmental changes.
    This Obamascare thing is by no means over, and could redraw the lines of sanity for American Business. It will come to pass that many people owning small businesses will be forced out of business, or forced to open a totally different business to keep numbers of employees below the maximum number of people so as to avoid the mess of the medical insurance debacle forming.
    Go forth with your wary boots on.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator.
    26 Dec 2013, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10003) | Send Message
     
    First.... have a successful cruise business....then you can say conspiracies are real and that everything should be in cash or gold coins....
    26 Dec 2013, 12:59 PM Reply Like
  • Gary Jakacky
    , contributor
    Comments (2703) | Send Message
     
    Et Tu, Brute! DEATH TO TREASURIES!
    26 Dec 2013, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • notta lackey
    , contributor
    Comments (131) | Send Message
     
    You don't have to wish them ill. At 3% they'll die on their own.
    26 Dec 2013, 04:58 PM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (11408) | Send Message
     
    The taper was all because the Federal Reserve has lost control of the US Treasury market. Cutting QE temporarily stalls the rise but in the end less QE means no one to fill the hole and more QE means no real demand because frankly who wants to buy a bond at artificially low rates.

     

    If you want lower yields tell the federal government to stop running massive deficits. That's not going to happen and that's why rates will rise even in a zombie economy.
    26 Dec 2013, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • divinecomedy
    , contributor
    Comments (466) | Send Message
     
    A crisis in two emerging market countries like say Indonesia and Turkey and we should see negative rates. Let's do it people!!!!
    26 Dec 2013, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • notta lackey
    , contributor
    Comments (131) | Send Message
     
    Please explain your reasoning.
    27 Dec 2013, 11:34 AM Reply Like
  • Mark Humphrey
    , contributor
    Comments (764) | Send Message
     
    Yields are bound to rise from here, uintil we tip over into the next recession. The reason is nominal profit margins are at historic records, while long rates today are still extraordarily low. So firms can profitably issue new debt at low rates against high average rates of profit.

     

    The more the Fed prints money to buy government bonds, the more the government spends. Big government spending temporarily (and unsustainably) lifts profit margins. The more the Fed prints new money, the more company revuenues tend to rise ahead of historically lagged costs--so margins remain elevated.

     

    So the Fed can't hold long rates down by printing new money as investors hope. That's why rates are headed up up and up. Until the economy and housing roll over. The rollover will follow in the wake of a prolonged slowdown in the rate of money printing, which slows revenue growth compared to costs. Costs rise faster, as has been the case for the last two years, because higher production costs take time to show up in cost accounting for inventories and depreciation.

     

    We've just started the big march north in long term rates. The only question is: at what point will housing tip the scale to recession?
    26 Dec 2013, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • Peregrinus
    , contributor
    Comments (124) | Send Message
     
    What does this do to the value of the Fed's portfolio?
    27 Dec 2013, 12:08 AM Reply Like
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