Seeking Alpha

Precious metals off to big start in 2014

Comments (94)
  • BTFD
    2 Jan, 03:19 PM Reply Like
  • Gold could rise faster if India got off the huge gold tax that cuts deep into legitimate purchases.
    2 Jan, 06:45 PM Reply Like
  • 12/30 - Gold and Dollar Down but Both Will Rise Next Year


    Still see one more dip to the lows at some point but I did call for an up January in my Dec. 21st article on Seeking Alpha.
    2 Jan, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • so what Doug,
    Do you want a ballon?
    2 Jan, 04:05 PM Reply Like
  • user878,


    What's a ballon?
    2 Jan, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry, it's typo.
    I meant balloon!!
    2 Jan, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • I know.


    Too easy.


    Yes, I'll take a balloon I guess.


    If you are "sick from losing money" as your profile states, Keep reading and figuring it out. I don't believe it to be rocket science, but I do have almost 30 years of trying to figure it out.


    Good luck.
    2 Jan, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Isn't it amazing how a one day gain brings out the trumpets for Gold ?


    Hmm, now I thought Gold is supposed to be a small percentage
    holding in one's portfolio.. Yet the emotion that comes out when gold
    is questioned as an investment would make one believe that MANY
    have over sized positions in the metal and are now "stuck" ..


    If an equity owner has one stock that is a small percentage of
    their holdings and its up or down i doubt there would be much
    fanfare on a daily basis , yet the Gold fanciers with the emotion
    i have seen displayed here on SA & elsewhere is curious
    to say the least.. In fact the equity holder would more
    than likely jettison that position from their portfolio,,
    something I never hear from a Pm enthusiast..
    Hence the conclusion that many are in way to deep
    with their Gold holdings.. ..


    Food for thought in 2014 ....


    The equity bull rolls on in '14 and gold languishes with
    another year of underperformance ..
    Many ideas to increase your portfolio here :


    Enjoy ...
    2 Jan, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Doug, I see most gold bulls are sick of losing money and most of them consider 2013 is a terrible year for PM.


    But I just realized that speculating in the PM is way to lose my shirt and the best way is to hold tight and ride it up and down (with no matter if holding physical or ETFs (GLD or SLV).


    My point, it is not a magic to expect another drop in the near future and ypou don't have to remind us about what you expected!
    It is not against you or to insult your experience, but I believe it is not worth to trace the bottom to make extra bucks here and there.
    In other words, if gold will hit $3000 or $5000 in the future, I don't care about the extra pennies Iam making by selling now and buying in a month or so.


    Hope that clarifies my point.
    2 Jan, 06:11 PM Reply Like
  • User,,


    3,000, 5000, ? IMHO it will be years before gold hits 1900 gain,, &
    i've been around the block a few times in the markets . Gold fanciers
    will realize that their precious metal is not immune to the laws
    of the markets..


    ignore the "fear' hype , its intended to defend a position that is indefensible ..


    best of luck to you
    2 Jan, 06:36 PM Reply Like
  • fear&greedtrader,
    check what happened in 1976 with the gold market and then tell me why you think 3000 or 5000 is difficult to reach in few years!
    2 Jan, 07:10 PM Reply Like
  • Fear&Greedtrader - Just curious...but since you've "been around the block a few times" please let us know if you saw the upswing in Gold over the last 12 years and that you made money on that foresight... My bet is no.
    2 Jan, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • user,


    in your view what is a few years , 5 10 15 20 .. please elaborate


    gold is not immune to the laws of markets,, gold was most assuredly in a bubble, that has now changed, once gold finds its level, it will under perform for years (possibly a decade) as is the case with every commodity,, stock ,etc, bubble that has burst.
    2 Jan, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • Losers come out when it's down winners when it's up Steve! So what's it to you?
    2 Jan, 08:22 PM Reply Like
  • At F&G
    2 Jan, 08:23 PM Reply Like
  • JT,


    no i didn't see the upturn in gold, and if i memory serves
    me correctly - i never said that i did... But i did see the
    downturn and subsequent bear market in '13 and my
    commentary and my blog here on SA are there for all
    to see.. How about u ?


    as for me Gold represents no investment value , it trades on
    emotion of those who hold it and therefore I cant put a
    price on it,, if u can tell me or the rest of us here on SA
    what gold should be worth today please do so ,
    , but refrain from using the words fear, fed, fiat money ,
    crisis ,et al and all the other nonsense that gold enthusiasts
    throw around to make a case for a "price"


    When one buys gold today they simply hope that the
    next person has more "fear " than they do..
    Hardly an investment strategy ...
    Did u notice that during the worst financial crisis in history
    gold did not act as insurance ? So Why do u think it will
    help anyone in the next crisis ? a quick answer to that -- It won't..


    So my friend what should gold be priced at today ?
    I'm curious is it 10% 20% undervalued here ,, ?
    Is it a raging buy? I have stated my case .. it underperforms
    for a very long time.. Your turn ..
    2 Jan, 08:25 PM Reply Like
  • Nope he 's just perfect starting last year predicting Gold.In December when he started telling everyone it was going down for the year LOL. All the noise from fear & greedy papermeisters. .Just because 2014 isn't going their way.Nothing but wasted noise.
    Las Vegas is calling ,please share your predictions where you can make a buck at it.
    2 Jan, 08:28 PM Reply Like
  • Coins
    think again , my friend,, the commentary is here for all to see.


    why not take a look before u embarrass yourself again ..


    Move on !
    2 Jan, 08:31 PM Reply Like
  • You are the expert right? So if you won't stand up for your this world you don't count. Why don' you drink some more of the Obama koolaid and tell us to send ALL our money in. What a joke. I dealt with pious "know it alls" in basic ,you ain't near as smart as you are pretending to be. Bullies are a dime a dozen ,especially on the "interweb" Here's a Stock tip for you. $ 1.00 and your advice will get someone a cup of coffee in this world (At Mc Donalds). Plus TAX. We have all heard your advice ,so it means nothing at this point. Even if per chance you are right once in a while.Fools won't heed it .Wise men don't need it.
    2 Jan, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the kind words,, u r right fools wont heed it ,, hmm i wonder ,
    how about trolls ? nah never mind --


    have a joyous 2014 .. I' ve been to the mountain and now I have seen it all ...
    2 Jan, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • F&G said; "Isn't it amazing how a one day gain brings out the trumpets for Gold?"


    As you know, I have called the gold market quite well, and I wrote that article in December that user878 wanted to give me a balloon for, saying we would have a bounce in January. But I also followed that up by writing in the same article that we would break to new lows again.


    So tell me, how is that one you describe as bringing out "the trumpets for Gold?"


    User878 said, "most gold bulls are sick of losing money." As I have mentioned before, they haven't lost if they haven't sold, so it does fit in with your explanation of speculation vs. holding.


    I also wrote an article in 2010 when the HUI was at 512 to take profits in the paper and buy gold when it was at $1314. Down around 8% overall (before today's run up), but not a bad call considering the HUI is down 60%.


    Thanks for your explanation.
    2 Jan, 09:03 PM Reply Like
  • What would you pay for gold jewelry? Therein lies the price discovery.
    2 Jan, 09:19 PM Reply Like
  • 80 % of Spot . 10% Profit margin for the smelter and 10% for buying it fro the public.
    2 Jan, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • I KNOW RIGHT!? it's just dumbfounding! Suffering for over 2 years, with lower lows, and crashes every few months.... and a small pop takes place, and the goldbugs shout victory!
    2 Jan, 09:23 PM Reply Like
  • .
    2 Jan, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • Why would someone devote SO much time ranting against an asset class that they clearly hate on an Internet board?




    Does anyone know the psychology behind this?
    2 Jan, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • F&G - My bet was apparently correct - you missed the boat on Gold last time... I do agree that Gold is valued at what people are willing to pay for it...but isn't that just like most if not all commodities?
    I do not know where Gold will go and I don't pretend to know. No disrespect intended, but my point is that you have no idea either..and your view is especially called into question given the fact that although you claim to have "been around the block a few times in the markets" you still admittedly failed to see the rise in Gold prices last time ... and presumably were blind/refused to see it during the past 10+ years it kept rising. So why should anyone give credence to your forecasting prowess on Gold and where it's headed now?
    2 Jan, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • @Fear&Greed, I'm one of those that thinks manipulation goes both ways and it's more about trading plan than long or short. Recently overnight the manipulation looks to be on the buy side (short squeeze) manipulation (in the evening/overnight eastern time) in gold but again we agreed that we disagree about gold. Happy New Years.
    3 Jan, 12:59 AM Reply Like
  • "Worst financial crisis in history" And what would that have been, in your opinion? I might guess that you meant 2009, but gold held up well during that crisis.


    Show me one financial crisis in history where gold truly was worthless, please.
    3 Jan, 07:07 AM Reply Like
  • Well, "the laws of the markets", at least for commodities, is that what goes up must come down, and what goes down must come up. Right now gold is at or near the price to produce. When it falls below the price to produce, producers will be forced to stop producing. What will that do to the price of gold? It will skyrocket, of course! Supply meets demand. Demand meets supply.


    Don't tell me that there is no intrinsic value for gold. There is no intrinsic value in stocks, bonds, or currency either. Those are just pieces of paper. And sometimes they pay off... in more paper. At least when you hold gold you can fashion it into a necklace and please your wife with it. Now that's intrinsic value!
    3 Jan, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • It's the twitchy corpse syndrome. People are standing around in morbid fascination to finally declare gold to be dead so they can bury it. It ain't going to happen. In case you haven't noticed, there's tons and tons of the stuff sitting in central banks. As long as central banks hold gold, it's currency, and not just any currency, but the ultimate currency of last resort.
    3 Jan, 07:23 AM Reply Like
  • DVL


    I try to present the facts as i see them and then wonder why i get so much push back from those who supposedly have a SMALL position in a commodity,,


    As stated I believe they have an oversized position and are now stuck ,


    Enjoy your day !
    3 Jan, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • 6151621


    The same to you ... Best of luck in '14
    3 Jan, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • Gold actually went sideways to slightly down during the financial crisis of -08-09..


    Now would u have me believe that all of the gold buffs moved all of their assets at precisely the right time to protect all of their portfolio.. ? So going by the gold mantra , one protected 5-10 % of their holdings.. please tell me how that saved anyone.. the only way to "Save" and protect your assets is to practice risk management ... Something the gold folks seem to know nothing about as from what i see & hear here on SA, they buy at all prices and never sell.. .


    Point was it didn't perform and act as any type of insurance ( DVL -these are facts that most wish to ignore Sorry I'm sorry if that offends you or u call that a rant )
    3 Jan, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Doug,


    I never questioned your "calls",, in fact i have stated here on SA that u have demonstrated integrity and have been upfront on your commentary , although i disagree with most of your economic & global views.


    BUT , please show me where u told someone to "sell" when gold entered into a bear market,, please show us where u or any other gold afficianado practiced risk management .. Its a simple fact that i never see or hear from anyone defending the ownership of gold ..


    Have a good day !
    3 Jan, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • David,
    "As long as central banks hold gold, it's currency"
    I disagree. Even after central banks will have sold every single oz of gold out of necessity to raise liquidity, gold will still be considered solid currency all over the planet.
    3 Jan, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • F&G,


    Does one sell their cash value life insurance policy and collect on the accumulated value?


    I told people to sell paper assets in gold when the HUI was at 512 and to buy physical gold in 2010 when the price of gold was $1,314 an ounce.


    I have said to dollar cost average into an allocation to gold for the 10% of one's portfolio I recommend and I have said continually to expect the Market Makers to push the price below the 200 day moving average, which they did in April and I had many clients buy gold and silver then at lower prices than today. We went up and I went negative again and in December when we had our last smack down, I had many call again and buy. Some buy every month no matter what price does. They are fulfilling their allocation.


    I don't know how anyone can call that bad advice.


    Your assumption when you say, "show me where u told someone to "sell" when gold entered into a bear market" would presume that you called the bear market back then but I don't think you did. I at least did write articles that were dollar bullish (no one else has done this in my industry) and that "there would be pressure on gold and silver prices."


    Practicing "risk management" is not needed when you have a proper allocated portfolio. You practice risk management in a way that many cannot comprehend who work in your field. It may work for you, and if it does, write a book about it or post your articles on SA rather than an instablog to get more clients. I'm with you if it works. I have nothing against what works. But you seem to want to harp on the gold bugs a bit and I think with me, undeservedly so.


    3 Jan, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • I disagree and respectfully do call it bad advice when anyone
    sits on ANY position and suffers outsized losses, when
    defensive action, at the very least can be taken.. Trimming the
    position when it signaled and dropped into "bear market
    was easy to do & It's not 20-20 hindsight..


    It was done with equities in the last 2 downturns and i
    would be remiss if i didnt advise clients to lighten up.
    A view on my practices that i shared on risk risk
    management deployed in the last two downturns.



    So we disagree again , my view is that if u want to
    own gold as a part of your asset allocation its takes
    on the same properties as a stock that has entered
    into a bear market , it's trimmed or jettisoned.. and the
    money is put to work elsewhere or sits in cash..


    Those that sit on losses, waiting for a turn and buying
    on the way down , well it's a recipe for disaster..
    & unlike those that wish do that with equities there
    are no dividends to make up the slack , while u wait..
    I find it ironic that the gold folks harp on the dangers
    of the equity market because of all the perceived risks
    in our world , yet will sit thru a 35-40% correction and
    tell us all is ok.. and for those that all bought lower..
    (it seems everyone has - LOL ) well ,maybe a little risk
    management could have pocketed some cash and put
    to work elsewhere , so at the end of the day they are
    losing with a non performing asset that produces no income..
    3 Jan, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Fear&Greedtrader:


    Look...if you want to build your own fantasy about what any Seeking Alpha member has in his or her portfolio then fine, be my guest.


    I can't have an intelligent debate with someone who literally is making up their own reality to fit their beliefs.


    Gold is a SMALL part of my total net worth. Most of my thousands of posts here are about stocks as they represent the majority of my holdings.


    If you don't want to believe that then what can I do about it?


    But let's say that I am lying and ALL of my net worth is tied up in gold:


    How the heck could I be "stuck"?


    Is gold going bankrupt?


    Would I be unable to take my gold to a coin shop and exchange it for dollars?


    Did I have nothing until 2011, come into (for example) $100,000 then, suddenly, buy gold at the top?


    Seriously, you don't make a lot of sense even when other anti-gold posters here on SA make very valid arguments against gold as an investment.
    3 Jan, 01:06 PM Reply Like
  • DVL,


    I was speaking to doug.. and didnt mention your name,,
    why the rant ?


    HMM , maybe u are in fact one of the many that are
    in fact "stuck"


    methinks he doth protest too much


    Hmm food for thought...


    Oh & gold doesnt have to go bankrupt for one to lose money,
    sometimes all it takes is sitting on a position (commodity or equity)
    that doesn't throw off income or appreciate for a very long
    time to 'Lose"


    Or didn't u read that the first time i mentioned it ..
    3 Jan, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • F&G, who has the losses? You think everyone bought at $1,900? Come on now. You discount the previous 12 years of gold going higher in price!


    You clearly don't understand asset allocation the way I do because you are saying to discard a beaten down asset (gold) instead of allocating to it from what is breaking highs (stocks in this case).


    You said, "Those that sit on losses, waiting for a turn and buying
    on the way down , well it's a recipe for disaster..
    & unlike those that wish do that with equities there
    are no dividends to make up the slack , while u wait..
    I find it ironic that the gold folks harp on the dangers
    of the equity market because of all the perceived risks
    in our world , yet will sit thru a 35-40% correction"


    Again, what about those who bought the last 10 years before 2011 where we had nothing but gains? They aren't sitting on losses. But many who are buying now by dollar cost averaging in obviously see different economic data and understand debt differently than you do. Lastly, you think with your last statement above that it's an either or situation, gold or stocks, and that people "sit thru a 35% - 40% correction. This does not fit your average investor. Perhaps some, but in my almost 30 years of working with clients, I have never seen it.


    As far as gold not producing income, sure. Are CD's producing much income? The 5 year average on a CD right now is .78%. Is it really a stretch to allocate some of that cash to gold that doesn't pay an income? The average dividend rate on the DOW at 2.72% isn't much better after tax.


    Being a Monday morning quarterback is easy.


    3 Jan, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • Doug,


    hardly "monday morning quarterbacking" with the commentary
    i have presented here on SA


    I didn't say its "either or" ,, I'll cut & paste my earlier comments
    So Please read again
    "I disagree and respectfully do call it bad advice when anyone
    sits on ANY position and suffers outsized losses, when
    defensive action, at the very least can be taken.. Trimming the
    position when it signaled and dropped into "bear market
    was easy to do & It's not 20-20 hindsight"


    So we disagree again , my view is that if u want to
    own gold as a part of your asset allocation its takes
    on the same properties as a stock that has entered
    into a bear market , it's trimmed or jettisoned.. and the
    money is put to work elsewhere or sits in cash..


    That commentary simply stated that
    Its not "either or", its an asset that is non performing and
    takes on the same rues as any other asset does.
    In my view its not part of a religion that is immune from sale ..


    U keep reminding us all that people are dollar cost
    averaging , fine,, how long does it take to make it a
    small part on of one's portfolio? My guess is that the majority
    of folks that are so vehement in their defense of gold have
    outsized positions as they continue to buy , but never sell..
    The protestations are loud and clear and seem to solidify my point..
    Believe what u wish ------
    I try to present the "other side" and simply say if its a non performing
    asset & in a bear market u trim or jettison it ... period
    ..stock, bond, or commodity.. Gold is no exception ...


    A concept that doesn't seem to resonate with the gold crowd..


    Enjoy your day !
    3 Jan, 02:35 PM Reply Like
  • F&G, the Monday morning quarterback was in reference to your advice now after the fact from the link you provided.


    You keep calling gold a "non-performing" asset. Well, it performed well for 12 years straight and last year was the first under performance.


    IBM and Caterpillar lost money last year. Should investors sell?


    Lastly, with asset allocation you don't sell an asset class to invest in another asset class. I've been consistent in my rebuttals to you on asset allocation. I just think we view it differently or you don't believe in it, not sure. I know you have your own strategies writing covered calls etc. This is not what the mainstream investor does nor the believe in what gold represents in one's portfolio.


    12 out of 13 years up in gold does not a bear market make. 34 years straight up in the National Debt is a bull market. Some insurance is prudent investing.


    Thanks for the discussion.
    3 Jan, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • IBM & CAT pay dividends and neither stock is presently in
    a bear market ,, - apples and oranges when trying to compare
    to Gold .


    Finally, gold doesn't provide insurance .. I have shown that ..


    But Believe what u wish


    Thanks for your time & good luck with the books
    3 Jan, 02:52 PM Reply Like
  • IBM and CAT both lost money for investors last year even with their 2.5% dividends. Doesn't mean one should sell them, but the "Dogs of the Dow" theory hasn't been a bad one and I am simply saying that as an asset class, you buy what's been beaten down; gold and silver.


    Not sure what you have shown on gold as insurance. You buy insurance for "future" possibilities of need. You buy it and forget about it.


    Thanks for the wishes. My debates with you help, and in some way you'll see your thinking in my book, good or bad, haha.


    3 Jan, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Doug,


    I guess i get the 'villan" role-- LOL


    Good Luck !
    3 Jan, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • Actually F&G, I want to discuss with you more privately about your experience with covered calls. If you have something you can email me, please do so (my email is in my profile). I can give you credit in the book. Specifically, I want to know your strategy for downside protection, no matter what the asset. Thanks.
    3 Jan, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • Doug,


    will do , give me a couple of days to get some
    stuff together for you


    Thank You !
    3 Jan, 03:32 PM Reply Like
  • Do you call Doug "DVL"?


    This is what you wrote:


    ::: DVL


    I try to present the facts as i see them and then wonder why i get so much push back from those who supposedly have a SMALL position in a commodity,,


    As stated I believe they have an oversized position and are now stuck ,


    Enjoy your day !:::


    Please define "stuck" because I honestly don't know what you are talking about when you use that word in this context.


    And if you can provide ANY proof that I or anyone else here has "lost money on gold" then please prove it if you are going to keep saying that.


    For perhaps the ninth time I ask...why do gold bears assume gold bulls ONLY purchased gold at or near the peak?


    It completely defies logic.


    Gold spent nearly two DECADES below $1000 (nominally)!!
    3 Jan, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • DVL wrote: "Please define "stuck" because I honestly don't know what you are talking about when you use that word in this context.


    And if you can provide ANY proof that I or anyone else here has "lost money on gold" then please prove it if you are going to keep saying that.


    For perhaps the ninth time I ask...why do gold bears assume gold bulls ONLY purchased gold at or near the peak?


    It completely defies logic. "


    Good luck with that ,He believes he is able to divine everyone's financial position apparently. Even when I sold Gold in December at $1300.00 and have bought it back at $1203 per Oz. I am supposedly dealing with a "non-performing asset" . I guess it's the old adage ,to those who don't understand no explanation will suffice,to those who can understand ,no explanation is necessary.
    3 Jan, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • DVL
    "Gold spent nearly two DECADES below $1000 (nominally)!!"


    & I'm told every day here on SA that gold bulls bought at MUCH lower prices
    NO ONE bought at the high .. EVERYONE has a profit ! ---


    it's like reading a script to a sitcom ---- absurd nonsense


    and i may add Gold will likely spend two decade at these levels , get the point now ??
    u made my day !


    move on , your point is noted, whatever it is ..
    3 Jan, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • Risk mgt. Is that buying on a trend when the commodity is headed up day by day on average and holding back until a trend is apparent?
    3 Jan, 08:14 PM Reply Like
  • If the point of investing is to increase your holdings in value then you engage in those actions that accomplish that. Timing is everything so it is said. All a person can do is study hard and act according to the best intelligence available. The challenge is always the decision you make on the information you have. Thanks to all who engage in these exchanges as they certainly add to our need for information. Buy and the price goes up, sell and the price goes down. He who wins is he who determines the trend, and some look at trends long term and some short term. Best of luck to both Traders and Investors.
    3 Jan, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • Kudos to both of you, your comments though differing are both knowledgeable as well as entertaining and shows how that can benefit us all. Good luck with your book and may it convey much knowledge to investors and traders.
    3 Jan, 08:47 PM Reply Like
  • My point, and I can't believe I have to spell this out for you, is that most of us wacko, nut-job gold bugs were buying gold LONG before people like you felt the need to remind us that gold has lost a third of its (*snicker*) "value".


    The idea that $1,200 is BELOW the average cost of gold for people who were buying anytime between 1980-something and 2010 is just plain bizarre.
    3 Jan, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • @ Doug, great reply, risk management is about having a regular, reasonable process that gives room for errors and unknown extreme events (i.e., don't be too levered). However, everyone should decide for themselves time frames and risk levels and possible returns. As long as your plan avoids the risk of ruin losing 30% isn't unacceptable, especially if it could make 300%. Markets are great. People can have totally different views and time frames. Disagree and both come out ahead in $$$.
    4 Jan, 02:53 AM Reply Like
  • IBM and Caterpillar lost money last year. Should investors sell?


    I'd sell IBM and keep CAT if you forced me to choose. As CAT looks it may have finished basing while IBM still needs more time.
    4 Jan, 03:02 AM Reply Like
  • One day means nothing.


    But that $1,150 level has been tough to break under.


    I wonder what that means?
    2 Jan, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • It means nothing until JP Morgan tells us what it means.
    2 Jan, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • LOL
    2 Jan, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • @ DVL ,and according to some,Stocks never go from $19 dollars a share to $12 because if they did all the people that own them would need to sell that stock LOL. Such logic
    Meanwhile no one was involved in making any profit for the last 2 years while the "Stock" changed prices multiple times. When prices change ,even if it retraces ,it's not possible (In the alternate universe of Steveo ),to make money by selling it when it spikes ,and buying it when it dips.It's just not done on the planet of "Nogoldevera". It's going to be a new sitcom with the old cast from 3 rd Rock from the son 20 years(Two Decades) later on their new mission. The mission ? To make sure that everyone that trades in PM's loses money .It's almost like defying gravity ,but not as realistic because every trade has a buyer also has a seller. You would think one of them would make money,but not if the "Nogoldevereans" can change basic algebra ,and accounting laws .Next weeks episode they will explain how string theory works for trading derivatives ,and selling naked shorts to people who are aspiring to be emperors without clothes on.
    3 Jan, 07:30 PM Reply Like
  • @ DVL On an alternative planet called "Nogoldevera".
    3 Jan, 07:40 PM Reply Like
  • Hmmm


    Unbelievable! Asia demand has been going full bore for YEARS now. Between China withholding virtually all of its internal production ( a big chunk of yearly global production) and Chinese consumers insatiable appetite for gold there has been record demand for years. And yet Alfa makes out like the huge global demand for physical gold is not only new, but treats it as an after thought. Good grief.
    2 Jan, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • The bets of yearend2013 are closed now. It's only normal that prices go up with betting pressure gone for the time being.
    2 Jan, 05:27 PM Reply Like
  • Gold looks like a good hedge at these levels.
    2 Jan, 05:59 PM Reply Like
  • Hey SA, nevermind as 3.6 tonnes exit GLD today. That's big supply and yet price is up?
    2 Jan, 06:09 PM Reply Like
  • merely short covering until proven otherwise.
    2 Jan, 06:13 PM Reply Like
  • People dumped going into the end of the year for write-offs. It is natural this part of the trade will unwind in January. It doesn't imply long term bullishness.
    2 Jan, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • Exactly Moon...not a hard one to call or trade. I was long NUGT as I posted here on SA (see my comments for those who care to) but out now. Will keep an eye and possibly enter DUST again although I could still go long NUGT a few more times if we keep breaking higher. Days like today are one's I live for.
    2 Jan, 09:21 PM Reply Like
  • Moon, do you have any resistance price point in mind where the next short
    attack effort might start?


    That down trend channel is pretty easy to see.
    3 Jan, 12:39 AM Reply Like
  • Doug,
    I'm your witness.
    You're doing great. I'd wait till gold hits $1,400/oz before selling NUGT.
    3 Jan, 03:57 AM Reply Like
  • Thanks filipo...Will wait for dips filipo...they always come!


    I also appreciate your European point of view in your comments. Everything is not just U.S. economy, although we have been in the driver's seat for some time, at least from a consumption point of view, haha (and military).
    3 Jan, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Doug,
    Europe is slowly recovering from a hard hangover.
    Spanish debt yield is at record low and even Greece (!) plans to return to the obligatory markets. The latter might be somewhat overstretched though.
    The problem with the US is that they were at such an astonishingly high level already, that adding still more GDP or productivity at some point becomes a challenge.
    On the other hand if you consider Europe with all its states (Poland, Rumania, Bulgaria, Greece, Portugal, Letonia, Estonia, Lituania, Slovenia, Tsjechia, Hungary... ) not so long ago these populations lived in an economic wasteland dominated by communism. One can't expect miracles to happen in one generation. These economies will slowly grow up to the level of the core of the EU et alii but it will take time.
    I have absolutely no problem with the US in the military driver's seat, on the contrary. Since the military power of the EU is almost non-existent, the alternative would be Putin or the Chinese, God forbid. I'm an extremist when it comes to Atlanticism.


    BTW, it seems you chose your moment wel to buy NUGT.
    3 Jan, 12:14 PM Reply Like
  • I sold the NUGT a little early and today bought DUST, lol...


    Thanks for your insight again to Europe. If you guys over there like our Military so much, how about chipping in? haha
    3 Jan, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • Doug,
    "If you guys over there like our Military so much, how about chipping in? haha "
    Well, that's precisely the point: we like you guys to do the jobs.
    4 Jan, 07:04 AM Reply Like
  • And so does everyone else!


    (and that's why you can't discount, partially, what really backs the dollar)...
    4 Jan, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Doug,
    "I sold the NUGT a little early and today bought DUST, lol..."
    Well, that's early ! I think NUGT might easily progress some more.
    But then I suppose one doesn't get poorer from taking his profits.


    "(and that's why you can't discount, partially, what really backs the dollar)..."
    You know all that chatter about NSA spying on everyone and his stepmother, I think it is greatly overdone. When I was young in every pub there was a warning sign: "don't swear; God sees you". Hence we did not only not swear, but we behaved.
    Then came the sixties, seventies, eighties, nineties with endless freedom and people took advantage. Terrorism raged (I was in London when a IRA-attack took place) and the Western societies seemed helpless. The Palestinians and later on Alqaeda terrorized the Western civilization. And when finally thanks to i-technology we could stop terrorist attacks and hence the athmosphere of fear, I felt kind of releived. So why would one not protect oneself by all means, including spying on people ?
    If that backs the USD, OK with me, even if it means I have to pay for that. At least we're safer. In 2014 the US have taken over the function of God and I don't object.


    We have more or less the same discussion in Belgium over ICT-cameras: some people, mainly socialists and even liberals, are vehemently opposed, saying they are an invasion of people's privacy. IMO that's BLS: if one has a clear conscience what is there to fear ? Besides, they're a helpful tool in helping solve criminal offences.
    4 Jan, 02:22 PM Reply Like
  • filipo...I try to profit from both up and down as I see it. These move quickly enough to do so. But I don't buy and hold at all the ETF's, only physical.


    Regarding the rest of what you say, I address it in another book I have been working on for 8 years called, "We the Serfs!" I won't go into it here as I am too busy writing the other book. Another time my friend!
    4 Jan, 07:16 PM Reply Like
  • Doug,
    "I try to profit from both up and down as I see it. These move quickly enough to do so. But I don't buy and hold at all the ETF's, only physical."
    Can't blame you therefore. It's exactly what I do with ordinary shares: trading, sometimes even daytrading. In times when reality has changed (constant high volatility instead of steady goldilocks scenarios), one has to adapt his strategy.
    With gold trackers though I find it a bit too stressy (or myself not too confident in my own predicting capacities as to where gold is heading). You made a $1,000 in one day and I congrat you therefore, but are you sure you can repeat the move again ? The $1,000 no one can take them away from you, that's for sure, but heading along with DUST could be a bit premature, no ? By doing so, you might lose the $1,000 again. After all, gold at $1,230/oz isn't that expensive. The chance it might still go north IMO is bigger than that it goes south again. But to be honest, I have no clue.
    5 Jan, 04:10 AM Reply Like
  • filipo, because of my longer term beliefs in gold (and medium term too), I am quicker to pull the trigger on DUST. I always keep stops either way. I also play smaller shares on DUST.


    On NUGT I played 500 shares and got 2 points quickly. I wait for the right set up and trade accordingly. Could I have got more out of the trade? Sure. Can I get back in? Sure.


    My entry on DUST was $38.20. It closed at $39.43. I will probably sell early Monday (possibly pre-market if it goes against me) or at a higher price if it goes in my favor.


    It is impossible to lose $1,000 on the trade because I trade smaller shares and keep stops.


    Either way, patience is needed for the right setup. I regret on Dec. 31st on that dip I didn't buy NUGT earlier when I saw it staying strong despite the pullback in gold to $1,981 (It didn't dip below $25. It was trading just north of $25 and I got in late at $27.28 which is why I only made $1,000. Sold at $29.27 and went on to a high of $31.24 that day and $31.80 the next and presently at $30.12, not too far from where I originally sold. I'm good with that. My dad, who was a Commodities broker at the CBOT told me the number one reason people lose is "greed."


    My goal is to simply have more winning trades than losing trades.


    I admit it was much easier to profit day trading back in the days of scalping 1/6, 1/8 and 1/4's but I would spend all day making $1,000 and then give it back on one other trade because I thought I was right and the market was wrong. Haha! We all learn. I just try to fine tune.


    In my book I will expose something that will shock a few people. Haven't told a soul in 15 years. I just happened to catch on to what someone else was doing and haven't heard anyone discuss it anywhere since. Don't you just love secrets?


    Physical gold is what most older people do. They remember the stories of their grandparents of the Great Depression. They don't care about this type of conversation we are having and they have some insurance from what they perceive to be looming. This gives them diversification and some peace of mind.
    5 Jan, 11:45 AM Reply Like
  • If I have learned one thing(Like Curly) ,it's to always "Take some and leave some" . Simply put ,no matter what you invest in it's always wise to take some profits when it's appropriate. Just a confidence builder if nothing else. Asan old friend quoted to me once"No one ever went broke taking a profit"
    5 Jan, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • "No one ever went broke taking a profit"


    Wasn't that me?


    If not, I say it all the time. haha
    5 Jan, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • Doug,
    Appreciate you give me some insight in your strategies.
    You seem to be an astute fellow and with experience from your dad moreover. Can't go bad that way, I'd say.
    Talking of greed, you are right. That's why I generally take profit when I see a 10% gain, sometimes even 9.5% since I reckon the others too are selling at the 10% margin and I might be too late cashing in. This strategy has made me miss some opportunities that were the result of insiders pushing up the price: (CFE)
    As I saw the price rising in a week from €38 to €45 without any apparent news, I sold at €45. Later on, it went to €73 on the news that Ackermans has takeover plans. I had bought at €36. It made my week, but still, if I hadn't sold early, it would have made my year.


    "Don't you just love secrets?"
    I love secrets when it's me who keeps them. Otherwise I hate secrets, to be frank with you.


    "This gives them diversification and some peace of mind."
    That is quite true: keeping Au in one's safe is Zen in the highest degree.
    5 Jan, 01:21 PM Reply Like
  • filipo, saw gold was down $2 this morning and DUST was down as well so I got out @ $39.11. It didn't make sense both were down so I bailed.


    Did not go long NUGT though. Perhaps I should have, but waiting for better setups as I said.
    6 Jan, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • Doug,
    Gold again went berserk today, a new flash crash happening:


    This is what I really would like to be explained in the course of 2014: who's behind these sudden price drops.
    Snowden better had that revealed.


    I'm afraid, my friend, I can't be of any help to you regarding the gold price ST. There are fundamental reasons to beleive the price should go up (and I'm sure you know them better than I do), but there's the reality that tells us the price goes south instead.
    So, NUGT or DUST, I really can't give you a sound advice.


    Tao Jaxx (hat tip) once made a good point when he stated that the Armageddon premium had to get out of the price, but that was at $1,500/oz.
    So apart from the poetic merit that this argument bears, the question remains: has the Armageddon premium already been paid off now, or is there more way to go south ? Who will tell ?
    6 Jan, 04:09 PM Reply Like
  • Because smart business people (Dealers) have to sell Gold to someone Antonio. Now why should we hate the "Goldbugs" ? Do Stock sheisters hate their customers?
    2 Jan, 09:30 PM Reply Like
  • Why would you get out of nugt now ? It's going up to 40's a easy call on volume @ the low. Short term trade is up it's not a hard one to call !
    2 Jan, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • Johnny, I hit "like" instead of reply, lol.


    Because when I make $1,000 in a day, I call it a good day.


    I can always get back in or play DUST depending on what I see. I look for good risk vs. reward plays. Do I leave some on the table? Sure. Do I care? No.
    3 Jan, 12:33 AM Reply Like
  • Why would yuoget out of nugt now ? It's going up to 40's a easy call on volume @ the low. Short term trade is up it's not a hard one to call !
    2 Jan, 10:31 PM Reply Like
  • Antonio,


    I became dollar bullish in 2011 when it bottomed out. Am I perfect on my calls, no. No one is. But yes, I have encouraged people to "dollar cost average" into a position and I constantly tell them it's the "tortoise (gold) vs. the hare (debt)." I also consistently say that this is the 2nd and longest stage of the gold bull market and the professionals will try and buck you off it. My clients aren't traders. They haven't sold. They are in position for the 3rd "euphoria" stage. I also view gold as "insurance" first and foremost. Lastly, I have over 1900 comments on Seeking Alpha here where you can dig into me some more if you'd like. In the meantime, I'll keep writing the way I see things thank you. I do see from your comments you continually try to hammer on the gold bulls. Are you paid to do this? I mean really...almost every comment!


    Here is the body of evidence from my articles:


    I called the $10 token taper;
    Fed Quantitative Easing Coming to an End Sooner than Expected?


    November 2013 - Gold and Silver Are Insurance against $17 Trillion of National Debt and More


    I called the Fed Taper bluff Sept 2013;
    Calling the Fed Taper Bluff and What Gold Might Do Next


    I called in August 2013 when gold was $1,420 for weaker gold till year end
    Sticking With Stronger Dollar and Weaker Gold Through End of Year


    In July 2013 I called the pullback about perfectly
    Nice Run Up In Gold and Silver Prices – Expect a Pullback


    In June 2013 when gold was $1,223.40 and silver was $18.36, I said there is an 80% probability of prices moving higher. They did!
    Is This the Bottom for Gold and Silver?


    In April 2013 I called the Dead Cat bounce reversal perfectly and gold fell $100
    Gold and Silver Dead Cat Bounce and More Carnage to Come or All In?


    In February 2013 I said that I fully expect over the next few months the Market Makers to test and break the 200 day moving averages lower on both gold and silver. It did!


    Will the Price of Gold and Silver Keep Falling?


    I also wrote an exclusive article for Seeking Alpha during the month of February where you criticized what I wrote above (nitpiking) as I wrote the following;


    "This will still pressure gold and silver prices. We are seeing the beginning of that bounce this week."
    Exclusive Seeking Alpha Article – Hey Gold Bugs! The Dollar Still Matters!


    Following are excerpts from 2012 articles:


    Sept. 2012
    We will bottom out in gold and silver. Are we there now? I just don’t know. In 2008 when our economy headed south, gold and silver fell with it. It all depends on what comes from Bernanke’s mouth and the last think I think he wants is for gold and silver to go to the moon quickly. It would reveal just how weak the Fed is. While I believe the Fed is weak, it is still relevant in the minds of investors…..for now.


    Aug. 2012
    Something’s got to give and the U.S. dollar, being the lesser of two evils and with better data at present, should benefit from this, possibly putting some pressure on gold and silver prices.


    July 2012
    I feel we will be somewhat status quo with gold and silver for the time being, and I think we need to look for that one burst down for the final opportunity to catch the bottom. My advice is still to dollar cost average into a position and this will give you a better overall price.


    May 2012
    Gold is still in its second and longest phase. The professionals will still try and buck you off the gold and silver bull. The dips will come.


    January 2012
    I have been saying that while the U.S. dollar gains strength, primarily against the Euro, it could have some pressure on gold and silver.


    Sept. 2010 (when HUI was $512.56 I made a call to sell gold mining stocks and buy gold. Gold was $1,314.10 then. Gold today is $1,205 about an 8% loss. HUI is 197.70, about a 60% decline.
    I’m Calling a Top On Gold and Silver Trades
    3 Jan, 12:31 AM Reply Like
  • Resistance is 37.89..... good luck on the shorting it here !
    3 Jan, 01:07 AM Reply Like
  • I believe these swings will continue through the year, I'm interested in folks thoughts on how a mild global recovery will increase demand for silver for manufacturing purposes and if that can translate into better spot prices for individual holdings in physical silver?


    As I read about silver as an investment, I always see the claim that silver is a key industrial commodity, but do not see much on how that helps improve the value of individual investments.
    5 Jan, 01:43 AM Reply Like
  • I'd be playing the short side for the miners through earnings and asset restatements although nice to see gold stabalize finally about 1200. I still see drift down after the first of year buying. Happy investing
    5 Jan, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • Very positive For gold and silver stocks .....Moving up on low volume , shorts better cover !
    6 Jan, 12:15 PM Reply Like
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