Imbruvica Q4 sales to beat consensus, says Deutsche

IMS data for week 7 scripts for Imbruvica "and our own calculations" indicate about $6.5M in Q4 sales vs. consensus $2.6M, says analyst Robyn Karnauskas, reiterating a Buy and $170 price target on Pharmacyclics (PCYC -2.3%).

"We note that Imbruvica is being sold in two forms 1) a 120 cap bottle and 2) a 90 cap bottle. While the 120 cap bottle is the standard 1 month dose for MCL, the 90 cap bottle could be used as 1 month supply of the commonly used dose for CLL or to dose titrate down for intolerant MCL patients. However, in our opinion, it may be too early to dose titrate MCL patients during the launch phase. If we assume all the patients getting 90 cap prescription are CLL patients, we calculate ~42% of the Imbruvica use in week 7 was in CLL."

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