Athersys rises, article projects big upside


Shares of Athersys (ATHX +6.6%) are trading notably higher on heavy volume.

Perhaps helping to tip sentiment is SA contributor U.S. Biotech Investor, who highlights results from preclinical studies of MultiStem and says "investors are beginning to recognize and appreciate the potential value of the [company's] portfolio."

The author (who penned a bullish post on the shares back in November) says reforms in Japanese pharmaceutical legislation and new information gleaned from Piper Jaffray's healthcare conference have created even more upside for the stock, which, according to the article, could go to $15.

Comments (10)
  • toosmarttofail
    , contributor
    Comments (686) | Send Message
     
    ATHX has had runups like this before, almost always followed by a nasty retracement.

     

    They hated it at $1.00, love it at $3.06. Welcome to 1999.

     

    Adult stemcells are cheap imitations of embryonic. This company could easily get crushed in Phase II/III. Look up IMUC for the dangers. Also this info was known at $1.54. Many in the stock now could be taking profits.

     

    Charts don't lie; people do.
    6 Jan 2014, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • DWD Investing
    , contributor
    Comments (12052) | Send Message
     
    Too

     

    Thanks for that information. So they aren't even done with phase II?
    6 Jan 2014, 04:32 PM Reply Like
  • U.S. Biotech Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (113) | Send Message
     
    toosmarttofail,

     

    IMUC is nothing like ATHX. IMUC's lead product candidate, ICT-107, is a dendritic cell-based vaccine targeting multiple tumor-associated antigens for glioblastoma multiforme and it had poor data. After that the pipeline was bare (nothing past phase I). Not the case with Athersys.

     

    Athersys uses multipotent adult progenitor cells (MAPCs) and they are safer than the embryonic cells you keep touting on any message board that will take a post. Using embryonic stem cells can produce tumors from rapid growth when injected into adult patients.

     

    Embryonic stem cells have too many limitations, including immune rejection and the potential to form tumors, to ever achieve acceptance in our lifetime.

     

    There are still many hurdles to clear before embryonic stem cells can be used therapeutically. For example, because undifferentiated embryonic stem cells can form tumors after transplantation in histocompatible animals, it is important to determine an appropriate state of differentiation before transplantation. Differentiation protocols for many cell types have yet to be established. Targeting the differentiated cells to the appropriate organ and the appropriate part of the organ is also a challenge.

     

    Here's a link so everyone can see the spamming you did on the last Athersys article in the comments section and the true penny stock ACTC you tout: http://bit.ly/19Ofq2z

     

    Regards,
    U.S. Biotech Investor
    6 Jan 2014, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • Mike Lad
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    toosmart, all due respect, but you always ride the coattails of ATHX articles to pump ACTC. however your argument against ATHX is based on nothing more than an overexuberance for ACTC and blind faith in embryonic being the answer. I remember first looking into ACTC many months back after you did this same thing on another ATHX article. ACTC has dropped nearly 30% since you started pumping it. ATHX is a true winner and anybody doing their DD should see that. I'd recommend that anybody looking at ACTC read this SA article by Josh Ginsberg: http://seekingalpha.co...
    7 Jan 2014, 01:07 AM Reply Like
  • toosmarttofail
    , contributor
    Comments (686) | Send Message
     
    I'm not a pumper for ACTC. I don't hide my long sentiment at all. Just like yuo guys, I'm stating my opinion, except I'm not making personal attacks.

     

    ATHX did pretty well after its "30 percent drop" now didn't it? That's like saying a futures bet on the Kentucky Derby is bad because a horse lost the Florida Derby and is now 15-1 in Pool 2 instead of 6-1 in pool 1.

     

    Yes, I have the same blnid faith in embryonic as Dr. Robert Lanza...and GOD. Adult cells are like trying to straighten out metal that's already been bent. You can never return it to its "embryonic" state. And yes, adult cells HAVE been genetically altered, by nature. They are *not* the pure form of the cell; they are an *aged* form. it's why I don't have faith that they will work. Even if you're right, there are Pluripotent, Multipotent, and about ten other potents that will enter this space.

     

    Now for the TENTH time: if you like ATHX, why buy the stock and not options? Derivatives pay much better. It's on the NASDAQ, so wouldn't there be options available? If not, you can get PSTIw (PSTIw, which I also like), that have DOUBLED in the past eight months, and which will go up 3x or more faster than the stock.
    7 Jan 2014, 03:39 AM Reply Like
  • toosmarttofail
    , contributor
    Comments (686) | Send Message
     
    PStiw are up 25 percent today, to $0.45, a new 52-week high. I picked those at $0.18, for a 250 percent gain, even more than ATHX has gone up. Every time I mention derivatives for these companies, I hear crickets and nothing else.

     

    At $0.45, the PSTIw costs $1.125 for the right to buy a share at $8.00 through 2017, which means they break even at $9.12 a share, but with a huge multiplier for every cent it moves above that (something like 3-5x), PLUS the time vazlue of the warrants. PSTI is in the same space as ATHX, and that's why I gave up on ATHX. It's essentially the same bet without the risk. Also, the South Korean government has partnered with PSTI (if I'm wrong check the company, I believe it was them), and they hvae a ton of other positives.

     

    When an SA article is cited as "news" and the reason for a rise in a stock, that's a big red flag. ATHX is sitting at $3.02. Anyone who listened to me yesterday on PSTIw is up 25 percent today, while your pick is flat.

     

    I do think ATHX will go up, just not as fasat as the rest of the sector, and you seem to take offense to that. And yes, I still think ACTC will blow them out of the water. Just like you feel it's your duty to notfiy investors of your vvision of the future, I believe the same. I'd be remise not to tout ACTC as I do. I do nkow that the tumor risks have not materialized for ACTC's RPE program, and that market is $30b a year, as large a the ischemic stroke market, and ACTC has no competitors.

     

    If PSTI hits $8.00 say this year, what are the PSTIw going to hit? The moon. Warrants are nothing new, but the way they work is perfect for all-or-nothing stem companies.
    7 Jan 2014, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • joshsorensen
    , contributor
    Comments (66) | Send Message
     
    "GOD" now that must be great investment advice. I have never heard of you prior to this post but if you get stock tips from GOD, then you must be right!!!
    8 Jan 2014, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • toosmarttofail
    , contributor
    Comments (686) | Send Message
     
    I'd be cautious to listen to anyone who makes personal attacks in the face of people disagreeing with them the way you have.

     

    You're effectively insulting Dr. Robert Lanza, probably the most brilliant mind of our time, and a man who hhas expressed similar doubts about adult cells. ACTC has progenitor cells as well, nad a very successful Phase I result about to drop for its RPE program. If there were any safety issues with their RPE trial, the FDA would *have* to shut the trial down, yet they are not.

     

    What IMUC and ATHX have in common is they are using alternative approaches to embryonic cells. "Adult" cells can be "safer" because they are "ineffective," i.e., don't do enough to fix an underlying condition. ATHX has run up over 100 percent in the last month and a half; the odds it will keep doubling, let alone gain another 500 percent, are slim.

     

    I figured ATHX was due for a runup right before it did, and had no interest in passing up ACTC for a simple double. If ACTC's program succeeds, they will put REGN's Eylea out of business. REGN is a $28b company, which even with ACTC's 3b shares, would make it a $9.33 stock, or 15,000 percent above its current valuation. There hasn't been a hint of a safety problem at all, and the Phase I study was designed to test for this. ACTC's technology has already worked in animals and mice; for it not to work in humans would be quite odd, especially since it treats the eye, rather than something affected by the entire nervious system.

     

    Now let's get to the point you have yet to address, or if you have, I missed it: why not buy OPTIONS in ATHX (or LEAPs)? Why settle for the gains in the stock if the same bet in options will make 3-5x as much money? We both agree the stock will not remain flat; hack, I agree it might even go up another double, but compared to ACTC's potential, that's not very much money. Adult cells have been shown not to work too well with the eyes, whichleaves ACTC without competition in its niche. ATHX has lots of competitors in its.

     

    You seem to dislike that people who disagree with you post their opinions. The chart for ATHX speaks for itself: its past runups have been followed by some very nasty cratering. $2.42 down to $1.54 was the latest. Before that was like $5.00 down to $0.95. The company also has its own history of dilution which could resurface at any time.

     

    The history for non-embryonic cell-based thearpies so far has been strong results in Phase I/II, followed by disaster in Phase III. In fact, the company that has the most promise in the adult cell arena is OSIR, since its recent pullback was the result of a nasty short attack, and roadblocks from the FDA that should not exist. There's absolutely nothing wrong with OSIR, which has a history of huge runups right after quarterly earnings are announced. Rigtht now if I didn't recommend ACTC I'd say OSIR is the one about to go up. Most of these stem companies don't go up after a big rally, but after a big slide. ATHX has had its runup; now it's OSIR's and ACTC's turn.

     

    I type 100+ wpm so all the noise you make, I can easily counter. Good luck trying to monopolize this media. It'll never happen.
    6 Jan 2014, 10:17 PM Reply Like
  • toosmarttofail
    , contributor
    Comments (686) | Send Message
     
    The fact is that treating stroke and IBD involves dealing with much more complex biological systems than dealing with the eye. it's why ACTC chose the retina first among its many programs. So far their studies have shown absolutely no tumor growth, and one patient went from 20/400 vision to 20/40 vision in three weeks. ACTC is about to release its top-line data fro mPhase I, they are presenting next week at the conferences, they just settled lawsuits with the SEC, they plan to reverse-split and uplist to the NASDAQ, and they could enter into a JV at any time. That's an awful lot of upside to ignore.

     

    In the autologous sector, NWBO has attempted to correct the mistakes made by IMUC, and they show a lot of promise, but again derivatives are the way to go, with NWBOw. Same with PSTI, who could be a huge competitor with ATHX. Once you get away from embryonic cells, you're talking about numerous alternative approaches that ATHX cannot monopolize the way ACTC can. Even if synthetic cells work, there's going to be many companies in that space. If embryonic turns out to be the only true winner, ACTC stands alone as the world's first trillion-dollar company.

     

    I'll drink all the ACTC Kool-Aid they want to give me at $0.06 a cup. I just see too many probloems with the synthetic companies, and no need to take the risk, but obviously others see things differently.
    6 Jan 2014, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • U.S. Biotech Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (113) | Send Message
     
    Personal attacks... One of your posts was removed by SA because of the language. It's you who came to my article and you who came to this SA post referring to my article. Why not right your own?

     

    Regards,
    U.S. Biotech Investor
    6 Jan 2014, 10:27 PM Reply Like
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