PC shipment declines narrow further in Q4; Lenovo and Dell take share


IDC and Gartner respectively estimate PC shipments fell 5.6% and 6.9% Y/Y in Q4. Those numbers represent improvements from estimated Q3 declines of 7.6% and 8.6%. For the full year, both firms think shipments dropped 10% (to 315M and 316M, respectively).

Gartner thinks U.S. PC sales (outperformed in Q3) have bottomed, but nonetheless estimates they fell 7.5%, and states "consumer spending during the holidays did not come back to PCs as tablets were one of the hottest holiday items."

IDC thinks U.S. shipments only fell 1.6%, thanks to healthy enterprise demand. EMEA and much of Asia-Pac remained weak, but Japan delivered positive growth. The U.S. and Japan have higher ASPs and lower piracy rates than many emerging markets.

Lenovo (LNVGY) added to its market lead in Q4: IDC assigns the company an 18.6% share (+250 bps Y/Y). #2 H-P, which performed well in its October quarter, is given a 16.8% share (-50 bps); both IDC and Gartner think H-P's U.S. sales were weak. #3 Dell, which has been cutting prices to gain share, is given a 12.2% share (+130 bps).

H-P and Lenovo have each rolled out a slew of new Windows and Android notebooks, tablets, and convertibles at CES. Lenovo's pricing has arguably been more aggressive than H-P's.

Other PC industry names: MSFT, INTC, AMD, NVDA, MU, STX, WDC.

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Comments (32)
  • Justin Jaynes
    , contributor
    Comments (3154) | Send Message
     
    here are specific numbers for Q3 and Q4:
    http://engt.co/HcdCm9
    http://engt.co/1bWsg9o
    9 Jan 2014, 06:02 PM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (19256) | Send Message
     
    A decline, of course. Therefore, AMD can be suppressed at earnings as usual. Tablets and smartphones surged in holiday quarter. Hey, let's suppress ARMH. So, what is going on here?
    9 Jan 2014, 06:06 PM Reply Like
  • 3D Investing
    , contributor
    Comments (1552) | Send Message
     
    Now there's even less reasons for analysts to have bashing AMD. The good news seem to outweigh the bad quite a bit lately.
    10 Jan 2014, 07:25 AM Reply Like
  • kjurden
    , contributor
    Comments (1917) | Send Message
     
    @Andreas..."declines narrow"..."Those numbers represent improvements from estimated Q3 declines of 7.6% and 8.6%". This is not negative for AMD...It's positive!
    10 Jan 2014, 05:49 PM Reply Like
  • Stephen Aniston
    , contributor
    Comments (3476) | Send Message
     
    Only 1% decline in the US is good... I think.
    9 Jan 2014, 06:18 PM Reply Like
  • pg4u
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
     
    Good for Intel, not and. Amd make very less in USA. Amd makes more than 50% in China, emerging markets... Feeling not good about amd... Only concern going into ER..
    9 Jan 2014, 07:59 PM Reply Like
  • Istii
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    AMD's CPU/APU/GPU market share growed in Q4. It's good for AMD.
    10 Jan 2014, 01:07 AM Reply Like
  • 3D Investing
    , contributor
    Comments (1552) | Send Message
     
    Where did you get this info?
    10 Jan 2014, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • kjurden
    , contributor
    Comments (1917) | Send Message
     
    @pg4u...did one of us not read the report correctly? As I read it, it says "Those numbers represent improvements from estimated Q3 declines of 7.6% and 8.6%. For the full year, both firms think shipments dropped 10% (to 315M and 316M, respectively)." No matter how you look at this (US/ASIA). It still means that y/y PC shipment declines narrowed (were less than expected)...that will still help AMD's bottom line. Add to that all of the positive developments in Q4...there should be no reason to be concerned going into ER.
    10 Jan 2014, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • pg4u
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
     
    @kjurden, I really hope amd does well on PC side. We will see next week when Intel release earnings.
    I concern because I show what wall st did after q3. I know this time amd have very good sales in GPU side. I don't even fear if amd goes 20% down after ER. I am very long amd, I see hsa will get lot of attention in next two years. Hope HSA will get succes, not only as I have amd but because that will take PC indestry in new age.
    Long amd...
    12 Jan 2014, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • Justin Jaynes
    , contributor
    Comments (3154) | Send Message
     
    @pg4u - I think PC sales may be a little tricky to navigate too - simply because notebook APU sales fell so sharpy *and* desktop chip sales rose just as sharp last quarter so the net effect was only a $50M decline in CS revenues - despite two pretty big swings in processor chip shipments. There is a lot of volatility in CS, so it'll be a bumpy ride up or down is my guess.

     

    If AMD posts static CS revenues during Q4 I'll be quite happy, as Kaveri + socketed Kabini chips coming up early in the year *could* help maintain/grow CPU sales

     

    OpenCL benchmarks for Kaveri compared against Trinity show a *huge* improvement for Kaveri.
    http://bit.ly/1ah8CoY

     

    iGPU performance is up substantially, and OpenCL stuff is pretty phenomenal. Keep in mind this compares Trinity vs Kaveri, not Richland Vs Kaveri, but if you're tech savvy it's easy enough to draw some conclusion. Note the results don't come from a review site, just a blogger that managed to wrangle in a Kaveri, but my guess is that they look pretty close to legit (I could be wrong though).
    12 Jan 2014, 11:51 PM Reply Like
  • pg4u
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
     
    @ JJ, agree with you, if amd CS segment post same sells as q3, than it will in $5+... I am more optimistic for next quarter. I think they will have guidance for +3-4 cents (that will be conservative for Rory).
    Agree with you that openCL looks good. Hope that OpenCL will help amd to get another apple win. I was only hoping that Kaveri CPU will beat i5, it is very close though.
    13 Jan 2014, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • Transcripts&10-K's
    , contributor
    Comments (1215) | Send Message
     
    So shipments for the year equaled 315M, for a drop of ~35M units since the iPad was revealed three and a half years ago; the "death of the PC" really just meant a 10% decline in annual units sold a few years down the road?

     

    Looks like Microsoft, with $80 billion in cash and ~$29 billion in cash flow from operations in the most recent fiscal year, just might not be dead after all...
    9 Jan 2014, 06:40 PM Reply Like
  • Nettligent
    , contributor
    Comments (1346) | Send Message
     
    PC shipment declines are obvious. The Intel computers are too expensive, boring, and dragging down for Microsoft's dependent. AMD has done an awesome job to price its products with high performance processors. The next 3 years are tangible for AMD and ARMH with next generation products with beautiful design and high performance graphic at competitive pricing from Chromebook, Game and Media Players, microservers, etc.
    Support Android and Linux Operating Systems with new product lines.
    Look for ARM and AMD when you purchase.
    9 Jan 2014, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (19256) | Send Message
     
    Still - why the ARMH slaughter today?
    9 Jan 2014, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • Istii
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    ARM Holdings PLC (NASDAQ: ARMH) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank, yesterday was a red day.
    10 Jan 2014, 01:04 AM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (19256) | Send Message
     
    Yes, but... why?
    10 Jan 2014, 01:08 AM Reply Like
  • Istii
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    Andreas Hopf: Deutsche Bank has lowered its recommendation for chip designer ARM Holdings from ‘buy’ to ‘hold’, saying that consensus forecasts for 2014 look too high.
    Research analysts Johannes Schaller and Kai Korschelt still believe that ARM remains ‘one of the best secular growth stories in the sector’. However, after a strong finish to 2013 they said that the share price is now ignoring ‘several risks’.
    These include: downside risk to earnings due to an ongoing mobile semi-conductor inventory correction; US rival Intel increasing its market share in tablets and potential announcing further smartphone design wins in the first quarter; a price/earnings-to-growth multiple (PEG) less than two, which is ‘a level where it has historically peaked’.
    Following 10% outperformance against the sector over the last four month, the analysts said that now see only ‘limited upside’ to their new target price for ARM given that the risk-reward balance is ‘less favourable’.
    ‘With the stock trading on 39 times 2015 earnings per share and less than two times PEG, we believe negative consensus royalty revenue and earnings momentum is unlikely to drive share-price outperformance.
    ‘We retain our long-term positive view on the company but prefer to wait for better entry points.’
    10 Jan 2014, 06:21 AM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (19256) | Send Message
     
    Yes, but... there is no substance there, don't you see? As in the case of ALU. This Deutsche Bank analyst, well known in Germany, is constantly off, yet whatever he puts forward, is slavishly followed. I don't get it, I really don't.
    10 Jan 2014, 06:32 AM Reply Like
  • 3D Investing
    , contributor
    Comments (1552) | Send Message
     
    Because to people that don't do actual DD and listens to "analysts", Deutsche Bank is way more credible than Andreas Hopf. Not only that, they have more influence over big funds that create big movements.
    10 Jan 2014, 07:33 AM Reply Like
  • RLLH
    , contributor
    Comments (609) | Send Message
     
    Could that be why you are not a stock analyst?
    10 Jan 2014, 11:40 AM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (19256) | Send Message
     
    So, you experts: please show me the evidence behind Kai Korschelt's mumbo jumbo. I'm all ears...
    10 Jan 2014, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (19256) | Send Message
     
    Still waiting for that expert explanation...
    13 Jan 2014, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Wilsonjd
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Check out apples #s for the 4th quarter, looks good for mac pro!!

     

    http://appleinsider.com
    9 Jan 2014, 07:58 PM Reply Like
  • Wilsonjd
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Apple sold 2.2 million up 28%. the biggest percentage coming in Dec.

     

    http://appleinsider.com
    9 Jan 2014, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • Kala_Pathar
    , contributor
    Comments (48) | Send Message
     
    So what was the projected decline?
    9 Jan 2014, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • redarrow5150
    , contributor
    Comments (1375) | Send Message
     
    Ordered two Lenovo's on December 26th and got an e-mail today indicating they won't be arriving on the schedule date of 30 days. Plan on calling tomorrow to see WTF not and when they would be sent out.
    9 Jan 2014, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • 3D Investing
    , contributor
    Comments (1552) | Send Message
     
    shouldn't it be obvious there's a lot of demand for Lenovo. they are priced the same or lower than HP/Dell but built with higher quality.
    10 Jan 2014, 07:31 AM Reply Like
  • redarrow5150
    , contributor
    Comments (1375) | Send Message
     
    Obvious? No.... since it's after the holiday season it's quite surprising it takes over a month with a company this big?
    10 Jan 2014, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • 3D Investing
    , contributor
    Comments (1552) | Send Message
     
    It is probably because their US inventory is dried up over the holiday seasons due to higher than expected demand. Increasing production and shipping to the US takes approximately 1 month. Their 30 days estimate is worst case scenario. The last thing they want to do is overpromise and underdeliver. Something that HP/Dell constantly do.

     

    I'm more than willing to bet that you will get your laptop before the 30 days. I can't believe you also complain about a laptop purchase on an investment forum.
    10 Jan 2014, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • redarrow5150
    , contributor
    Comments (1375) | Send Message
     
    Read the Headline ok and then you will understand why I wrote in this thread. Did you even take time to read the headline and where I purchased by laptop? They also don't make the laptops here in the U.S.
    10 Jan 2014, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • Ruffdog
    , contributor
    Comments (3540) | Send Message
     
    PC sales are down, you think part of the reason is that better pc's are being made and some companies are upgrading PC rather than buying a new PC. When is the last time you heard of a hard drive crashing? Crashed hard drives was the major reason people bough new computers.

     

    Also, with cloud storage, you do not have to worry about loosing files weather it is from a hard drive failure or operator error. I have not worked since 2007, but before that I deleted files, called IT and had the last one I saved sent to me within 1 hour.
    10 Jan 2014, 02:34 PM Reply Like
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