Seeking Alpha

Payrolls add 74K in December; UE rate down to 6.7%

  • December Nonfarm Payrolls: +74K vs. consensus +196K, +241K previous (revised from 203K).
  • Unemployment rate 6.7% vs. 7.0% consensus, 7.0% previous.
Comments (108)
  • AZ Desert Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (232) | Send Message
     
    Something is wrong with these numbers. need to look into the details.
    10 Jan, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (413) | Send Message
     
    Curious why despite the huge miss in payrolls the unemployment rate tumbled from 7.0% to 6.7%? The reason is because in December the civilian labor force did what it usually does in the New Normal: it dropped from 155.3 million to 154.9 million, which means the labor participation rate just dropped to a fresh 35 year low, hitting levels not seen since 1978, at 62.8% down from 63.0%. And the piece de resistance: Americans not in the labor force exploded higher by 535,000 to a new all time high 91.8 million. The jobless, laborless recovery continues to steam on.
    http://bit.ly/KINyB4
    10 Jan, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • 1GreatCFA
    , contributor
    Comments (825) | Send Message
     
    C'mon mrdirt...quite giving the US Feds/Congresses secrets away. They're doing a "great" job. Lol. Noticed that Kocherlakota was on sounding awfully Dovish this morning. Note: he's a Hawk...not a Richard Fisher Hawk...but he is a Hawk. And in other news Gold add $14.
    10 Jan, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • yliu54
    , contributor
    Comments (170) | Send Message
     
    What??? Is it even possible?
    10 Jan, 08:32 AM Reply Like
  • DeepValueLover
    , contributor
    Comments (8139) | Send Message
     
    Remember...the taper has been ANNOUNCED but has not actually STARTED.
    10 Jan, 01:46 PM Reply Like
  • Larry Smith
    , contributor
    Comments (2481) | Send Message
     
    Only 74K jobs added, yet the unemployment rate drops 3/10ths. I guess a lot of folks gave up.
    10 Jan, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (413) | Send Message
     
    The drop came mostly from the decline in the Labor Participation Rate (Lowest in 36yrs).
    U6 rate unchanged 13.1%. a better indicator.
    10 Jan, 08:52 AM Reply Like
  • Paul Wagner
    , contributor
    Comments (1794) | Send Message
     
    Ironically, "unemployment rate" is not the reciprocal of "employment rate". The talking heads tell us to focus on one, not the other. We live in a world where semantics trumps substance.
    10 Jan, 09:07 AM Reply Like
  • patmann03
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    It's because unemployment benefits ran out. The people that were receiving them more than likely already gave up on looking for work so when they stop receiving it and they aren't actively applying for "jobs" they aren't considered part of the working class even if they are at working age.
    10 Jan, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Joseph Poma
    , contributor
    Comments (437) | Send Message
     
    Being a math teacher I have to correct your terms. Employment and unemployment are never reciprocals, but rather complement values.
    10 Jan, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Paul Wagner
    , contributor
    Comments (1794) | Send Message
     
    I knew that, Joseph Poma...(but I forgot it about 10th grade)..thanks for the correction. :=)>
    10 Jan, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (2493) | Send Message
     
    A big miss
    10 Jan, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9309) | Send Message
     
    The 4 leading indicators inside the payroll numbers indicate no recession on the horizon....
    10 Jan, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (413) | Send Message
     
    Which indicators? Avg hrs and wages declined, Lowest Labor Participation rate in 36 yrs.
    Since we are a consumer nation with 10.4 million unemployed, where does the growth come from? But I look on the bright side after all this is Seeking Alpha, QE will continue, and the market will increase.
    10 Jan, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • wigit5
    , contributor
    Comments (3928) | Send Message
     
    mrdirt,

     

    bbro is the type of guy who if he was homeless would tell you hes the richest (meaning money) person in the world...

     

    hes the eternal optimist on the SA boards.
    10 Jan, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Rope a Dope
    , contributor
    Comments (531) | Send Message
     
    mrdirt, you are forgetting Pelosi’s assertion that unemployment benefits create jobs. I’ll go out on a limb and assume getting more people on SSDI would help too.

     

    This actually should work out really well, right up until the time the dwindling number of taxpayers run out of money.
    10 Jan, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9309) | Send Message
     
    Oh we will have a recession just not now...I let the data tell me when not some preordained bias
    backed by some dudes who might have the names of Mish or Zero.
    10 Jan, 09:17 AM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (413) | Send Message
     
    What else could she say to defend the Administration, where are all those "shovel ready jobs" promised way back in 2009 (after the stimulus bill was passed). The War on Poverty began 50yrs
    ago, and we have more people living in Poverty today than ever before. Problem is Current Admin and Dems know how to manage poverty but knows nothing on getting people off the government dole. Now let's pass a Immigration law that gives Amnesty to all ILLEGALS, the Admin and Dems say that will increase employment (maybe for them by keeping their jobs in Washington DC
    10 Jan, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9309) | Send Message
     
    I think you need to read some independent research on why the Labor force participation rate is down,,,stress the independent part....
    10 Jan, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (413) | Send Message
     
    or bbro.
    10 Jan, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • quabbin
    , contributor
    Comments (118) | Send Message
     
    Bbro could you answer the question from mrdirt?
    I'd like to keep an eye on these indicators.
    Tired of being blindsided.
    I looked for mish and zero in the author list but could not find them.
    Are these bad guys?
    10 Jan, 09:27 AM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (413) | Send Message
     
    google, zero hedge, and Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.
    10 Jan, 09:38 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9309) | Send Message
     
    In 1955 the Labor Force Participation Rate was 60.2%,,,,Real GDP growth for the U.S. economy
    was 6.6%
    10 Jan, 09:41 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9309) | Send Message
     
    Sorry guys people pay me to give their updates but a little homework and you could figure out
    a lot of them...or something close
    10 Jan, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • Captain Pike
    , contributor
    Comments (505) | Send Message
     
    different economy, different world for this topic. Most families were 1 job households where the men made enough to furnish a very decent standard of living. The erosion in standard of living caused energy inflation and world labor competition now requires much higher participation rates. Good news is energy inflation will not be a problem going forward.
    10 Jan, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (413) | Send Message
     
    Can't compare 1955 to 2014, Totally different Economic Conditions. Back then we were a Industrial Powerhouse where workers made and sold products in the USA. Today we import most of our manufactured goods and we transitioned from manufacturing to service type jobs and have become a consumer nation not a producer nation.
    10 Jan, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • Fracjob
    , contributor
    Comments (1138) | Send Message
     
    What in the H E double hockey stick does that have to with the price of tea in China?
    10 Jan, 11:07 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2178) | Send Message
     
    such as what? it isn't due to retirees..they are the only demographic that is increasing participation rate. The meat of the workforce 25-54 yr olds have been declining for a long time. Gallup shows a decline to 42.9% (for 30hrs a week or more workers). This doesn't bode well in a consumer based economy. Eventually, this decline will crush the economy. Considering all the extraordinary measures still propping up the economy and we still see such degradation, I'm not sure we ever actually left the recession...just poured a can of paint over it and hoped it would stay glossy.
    10 Jan, 11:37 AM Reply Like
  • Lakeaffect
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    bbro, so your comments are actually nothing more than trolling for clients? That works for you?

     

    Cheers.
    10 Jan, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Lakeaffect
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    One wage earner families were commonplace back then. It is next to impossible for a one wage earner family to survive these days. Totally different set of circumstances.
    10 Jan, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • Lakeaffect
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    Quabbin - Bbro doesn't have any. As he discloses in his next comment, he's just trollin' for new customers to pay him to find out what are his secret indicators.
    10 Jan, 01:44 PM Reply Like
  • Rope a Dope
    , contributor
    Comments (531) | Send Message
     
    People pay you for information? Really?
    10 Jan, 01:58 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9309) | Send Message
     
    Not enough...considering it would warn you about a recession....
    10 Jan, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2178) | Send Message
     
    LFPR was also rising and had not been in a 15 yr decline as is the case now. US GDP growth then was due to all the other major manufacturer countries were in ruins from WW2 and hadn't rebuilt yet. The US was unopposed manufacturing wise. The picture now is so massively different I can't believe you made the comparison.
    10 Jan, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9309) | Send Message
     
    You forgot the concept of value for an intellectual property (software etc) was barely on the radar too...I submit that we have become a knowledge nation which has great value but how do you
    employ people (especially people with the incorrect education) off of that?
    10 Jan, 03:39 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12716) | Send Message
     
    bbro:

     

    We don't even try. The politicians would rather pander for their votes by paying them to stay home, no participation, contribution or personal improvement required.
    10 Jan, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9309) | Send Message
     
    Tack...I believe the business cycle will sort it out (the sorting can get pretty ugly) despite the screwups from Politicians and zealots on both sides...it always has....Changes in Momentum precede Changes in direction...it is the momentum I track....sometimes with a helmet on...
    10 Jan, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2178) | Send Message
     
    We have squandered most of our IP via trade deals (production in countries with less than diligent enforcement of IP violations) and ignorant regulation that supports patent trolls. There is very little software that isn't pirated.

     

    Technology is a positive and negative bedfellow. It has probably replaced more jobs than one can count. What took 1000 people 20 yrs ago can be done by 10.

     

    Plain and simple the US has a population problem. But in a consumer based economy, the US has failed to evolve the workforce with technology. Thus as fewer are working, poverty increases, heavy strain on social services and debt increases. Eventually this smothers the economy.
    I know you follow Gallup, they picked up on the participation rate drop. They show a level not seen in almost 3 yrs using their matrix (P2P). Only 42.9% in the 30 hr or more work week. Stagnation. And that is with years of QE, forced low interest rates and massive government backing of consumer loans. It just isn't working. Maneuvers can be made only so long before this imbalance causes nothing short of collapse.
    10 Jan, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • justaminute
    , contributor
    Comments (581) | Send Message
     
    Excellent observations, Papaswamp.

     

    I'd suggest that the US has succumbed to the complacency that tends to infect mature, successful civilizations\economies. Generations that grow up during the accent of the civilization become accustomed to the lifestyle they lead, often with little understanding of the effort it takes to attain that lifestyle or to sustain the trajectory. It could be summed up as resting on your laurels.
    11 Jan, 02:08 PM Reply Like
  • kcr357
    , contributor
    Comments (557) | Send Message
     
    Bbro may a bit annoying with his optimism and ability to ignore what's happening in the real world vs gov numbers, but the guy's been correct pretty much the entire time Ive been on SA. Thought he was a lunatic being bullish a few years ago, and lost out on a LOT of money. Even if the numbers are complete bullshit and have no basis in reality, the market follows them more than our perceptions of what they should be.
    11 Jan, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • dagar burma
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    Right, it's because everyone is retiring. I guess soon everyone in America will be "retired". I'm 30 and been working too hard for too long. Think I'm about ready to retire as well. Florida, here I come.
    12 Jan, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • WMARKW
    , contributor
    Comments (10241) | Send Message
     
    Well....don't plan, DAGAR on collecting your Social Security checks for another 35 years.
    13 Jan, 05:30 AM Reply Like
  • JT4041
    , contributor
    Comments (97) | Send Message
     
    The jobs added number is so low b/c there are no more low level jobs available to fill.
    10 Jan, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12716) | Send Message
     
    JT: A report some months back indicated that over 3 million posted jobs remain unfilled due to lack of qualified applicants, yet we pay workers to sit home and do nothing, rather than require that they get better educated and/or trained.
    10 Jan, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2178) | Send Message
     
    The problem really is that there are over 45 million workage not in the labor force. filling the 3 million jobs might buy a bit of time, but the system is going to eat what is left of the economy.
    10 Jan, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Deja Vu
    , contributor
    Comments (1151) | Send Message
     
    Is bad news good news still or now is bad news really bad news?
    10 Jan, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • tomlos
    , contributor
    Comments (1098) | Send Message
     
    300k decided to leave the labor force.. this is the winter of recovery, which followed the summer of recovery.
    10 Jan, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10128) | Send Message
     
    EASY...How many dropped out of the workforce??? There is your answer...No recession coming?? Humm.. UE is now 6.7%
    10 Jan, 08:36 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9309) | Send Message
     
    Are you predicting a recession off of these numbers? ...2.2 million private sector jobs created over the last year,,,
    10 Jan, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (413) | Send Message
     
    Growth in the past year was mainly due to Temporary Help Services and retail jobs.
    10 Jan, 09:10 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9309) | Send Message
     
    Really??? data please....Temporary help has increased by 247,000 jobs Retail trade 380,000 jobs
    over the past year...
    10 Jan, 09:21 AM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (413) | Send Message
     
    2.2 million jobs created, bbro, name the companies that hired those 2.2 million jobs I'm sure you have a breakdown to backup your claim.
    10 Jan, 09:28 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9309) | Send Message
     
    It is fine with me if you think I am lying...always need somebody on the other side of the trade....
    10 Jan, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (413) | Send Message
     
    I didn't say you are lying, don't get so defensive, All I asked for was what companies did all the hiring, I'm sure you must have the info that 2.2 million jobs were added or else you wouldn't have made the statement as being factual. P.S. I am doing better than most in this economy.
    10 Jan, 10:15 AM Reply Like
  • MLP Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (873) | Send Message
     
    "2.2 million private sector jobs created over the last year"

     

    Yes. You repeat that ad nauseam. But you conveniently ignore the fact that the civilian institutional population grew by 2.4 million and the number of people "not in the labor force" grew by almost 3 million. More mouths to feed. Fewer people feeding them.
    10 Jan, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (820) | Send Message
     
    >Are you predicting a recession off of these numbers?

     

    The doomers don't predict; they just "strongly imply". That way they're never wrong.

     

    The same way they say to buy gold under all circumstances, at any price, but never seem to lose money.
    10 Jan, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9309) | Send Message
     
    I don't know the individual companies (actually don't really don't want to do the research) but there are currently 2.4 million quiting their jobs every month up from the recession low of 1.6 million a month..and it has been growing at a steady pace...heading towards the 3 million level before the
    recession started...
    10 Jan, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2178) | Send Message
     
    What is the quality of those jobs? Which demographic is filling them? How much has the size of the potential labor force increased vs number of jobs created?
    2.2 million sounds nice, but if retirees are taking a large chunk of jobs and the number of those work age but not in the labor force are far outstripping job creation, not only is no improvement occurring, but the consumer based economy will collapse. Considering participation rate for the 25-54 group has been in long term decline it seems as if things are falling apart.
    There are 45.4 million NILF 16-64 (no disability).
    Extraordinary government and Fed programs are still in place years after the recession supposedly ended. I suspect, it never did end, but merely covered up.
    10 Jan, 12:50 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12716) | Send Message
     
    papa:

     

    Question:

     

    If the recession never ended, who's buying all those autos, retail goods, houses, airline flights, restaurant meals, vacations, etc.?
    10 Jan, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • quabbin
    , contributor
    Comments (118) | Send Message
     
    Tack....can you answer papa's questions or is this also a paid for service?
    10 Jan, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12716) | Send Message
     
    q:

     

    Stop with the silliness. I'm a private investor, not selling anything, as anybody could determine in my bio.

     

    There's no real question to answer because an economy is the aggregation of all inputs, so terms like "quality of jobs" are meaningless because the total statistics either indicate success or failure. presently, the fact that corporate revenues and profits are at all-time records, and many sectors are making healthy reports should be indicative for investors. However, if one chooses to believe it's all a mirage, wants to focus on arcane demographic arguments or "job quality," and wishes to believe it "will end badly" and avoid investment, then one is certainly free to do so.
    10 Jan, 01:59 PM Reply Like
  • quabbin
    , contributor
    Comments (118) | Send Message
     
    I don't read bio's.
    Papa's question is indeed real your just incapable of answering it.
    You choose, instead, to tacktfully evade the question and launch into a diatribe of mirages that end badly.
    G'day sunshine.
    10 Jan, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12716) | Send Message
     
    Q:

     

    Given your post, it's not clear you read much of anything. But, I disgress.
    10 Jan, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (413) | Send Message
     
    bbro. Maybe you should read Mish you might learn something.
    Additional Notes About the Unemployment Rate

     

    The unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey, not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
    In the past year the population rose by 2,395,000.
    In the last year the labor force fell by 547,000.
    In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 2,943,000
    Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by a mere 1,374,000 (an average of 114,500 a month)

     

    Read more at http://bit.ly/1a7i9lj
    10 Jan, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9309) | Send Message
     
    I do read Mish...not a lot of predictive value...shouldn't even use the word predictive and Mish in the same sentence...
    10 Jan, 03:13 PM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2178) | Send Message
     
    Good portion of housing is purchased by investors...there are actually a few articles here on SA recently warning about the looming slowdown in housing. Regular home buyers (that can qualify) are getting government backed loans. Rental properties are the big winner at the moment. Autos...now I know you know this one.... 95% of all non-revolving consumer loans in 2013 were government backed student and auto loans. Retail sales are dismal as numerous reports are coming out.
    On the flip side high end auto sales, Bentley etc. are doing well. The income gap is getting wider and the worker is getting poorer. 70% live paycheck to paycheck, 80% have been in or are impoverished or near poverty (numerous articles on this).
    ex:
    http://cbsn.ws/1a7pbqm

     

    http://reut.rs/15B7QUQ
    "(Reuters) - The number of U.S. residents living in poverty edged up to 46.5 million last year, the latest sign that an economic recovery marked by a stock market boom has not trickled down to ordinary Americans."
    "While the Standard & Poor's 500 index gained 16 percent on a total return basis last year, including reinvested dividends, the Census Bureau report showed median household income slipped to $51,017 from of $51,100 in 2011.
    The economy has struggled to sustain growth rates of more than 2.5 percent since the recession ended.
    Although the bulk of the more than 8 million jobs lost during the downturn have been recouped, many of the jobs have been in services industries such as retail and restaurants that typically do not pay well."

     

    The evidence is there. No one wants to look.
    10 Jan, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2178) | Send Message
     
    I don't think you should sell anything. Present situation is very positive for the stock market. It is heavily backed by government and Fed actions. Since this article has to do with employment, I thought that is the situation we were addressing. Participation rate has been degrading for some 15yrs. Eventually this imbalance will catch up with a consumer based economy. Corporate ( now almost $10 T) and government (now at $17.3 T) liabilities are at record highs. As long as indebtedness keeps being extended, things will function, but it will be ever diminishing returns. Interest rates have had to be forced down, and now the Fed is having difficulty sitting on them. I suspect they may be forced to hold off on the next taper move to keep things under control. The 10yr is trying very hard to break free of 3%. If it does the Fed may be forced to chase rates quickly.
    http://on.mktw.net/1kt...
    This is a big gorilla in the room no one wants to see wake up.
    10 Jan, 03:41 PM Reply Like
  • dagar burma
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    If you're not aware of the sub-prime auto lending that is going on. You may be too far behind to catch up. More than 90% of the credit created in the last year is attributable to student loans and car loans.
    12 Jan, 09:27 PM Reply Like
  • quabbin
    , contributor
    Comments (118) | Send Message
     
    This proves that workers are becoming more productive.
    DB predicted 250K increase. No faith in the american labor force.
    10 Jan, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Tricky
    , contributor
    Comments (1583) | Send Message
     
    Just in time for the debate over extending unemployment benefits again (no, I'm not putting forth a conspiracy theory, merely an observation).
    10 Jan, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • AZ Desert Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (232) | Send Message
     
    Only 0.2% away from the magic 6.5% level.
    10 Jan, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Rope a Dope
    , contributor
    Comments (531) | Send Message
     
    All we need is for a few more people to give up hope of ever finding a job and we'll be there.
    10 Jan, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • AZ Desert Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (232) | Send Message
     
    precisely
    10 Jan, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • dagar burma
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    We'll be there by next week.
    12 Jan, 09:28 PM Reply Like
  • wiredless
    , contributor
    Comments (54) | Send Message
     
    People aren't giving up hope. They're grabbing government incentives that pay them marginally worse for no work versus marginally bad pay if they work. Risk/reward at the employment office. Reward, no risk for Uncle Sam.
    10 Jan, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • Tricky
    , contributor
    Comments (1583) | Send Message
     
    Now that you mention it, my back has been hurting a lot more lately. Anyone know a good disability lawyer? ;-)
    10 Jan, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • CautiousInvestor
    , contributor
    Comments (3016) | Send Message
     
    May ADP rest in peace, worthless. Over 300K leave the labor force, UE drops while those among those among growing ranks receiving entitlements rises. Two parallel universes.
    10 Jan, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9309) | Send Message
     
    ADP payrolls by itself (ignore the monthly differences) has very good predictiveness...
    10 Jan, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2178) | Send Message
     
    C,
    I think ADP on it's face was probably close. I can't stand the way BLS does their survey. Gallup does a better job IMHO. ADP doesn't really look at who takes the jobs (demographics) or can tell the quality of jobs. Even with +200,000 jobs it wasn't enough to offset those leaving. Next month will be very interesting with some 1 million+ having come off EUC. Either they will disappear from the count, or the number of job openings will drop since so many will be forced to find something.
    10 Jan, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • teejii
    , contributor
    Comments (58) | Send Message
     
    All hail Yellenomics. This just has to prove QE is doing it's alleged job.

     

    How about dropping unemployment benefits to zero, that might expedite the crusade against unemployment.
    10 Jan, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • taxman100
    , contributor
    Comments (244) | Send Message
     
    Unemployment is down to 6.7%! That means we need more work visas for foreigners so employers can keep their wage costs down, and earn themselves their massive bonuses for hitting 'budget".
    10 Jan, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • Tricky
    , contributor
    Comments (1583) | Send Message
     
    Well, if the employer needs a skilled IT programmer, the foreigner has a degree in CompSci, and the American majored in Philosophy or dropped out of high school...
    10 Jan, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • KeithRichards
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    Tricky, There's plenty of skilled IT workers who are Americans. Companies hire foreigners to tout their companies "diversity". The workers are out there for the hiring. Also the last time I checked Bill Gates and Steve Jobs are both Americans, and IT geniuses, both interestingly enough do not have college degrees.
    12 Jan, 11:54 PM Reply Like
  • justaminute
    , contributor
    Comments (581) | Send Message
     
    I don't think Steve is accepting offers, rest his soul.
    13 Jan, 12:02 AM Reply Like
  • Tricky
    , contributor
    Comments (1583) | Send Message
     
    I've worked in the IT world for decades. There simply are not enough Americans to fill the need. The evidence is everywhere in the open job listings on practically any board. Available workforce with the right skills is one of the very top issues for any growing IT company.

     

    The shortage is even more acute in other STEM-based sectors.

     

    Your point re: 2 whole Americans individuals might be relevant if I had said there were zero skilled Americans, but doesn't really have anything to do with my point about the quantity of skilled Americans. http://bit.ly/zrR413
    13 Jan, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • Guardian3981
    , contributor
    Comments (1926) | Send Message
     
    I get tired of this distorted "unemployment" figure.

     

    What should really be reported each month is the percentage of people in the country working along with the median employed earnings (not earnings from investments, rentals, etc.).

     

    All unemployment as its reported is the percentage of people not working who are looking. Well the more people the government convinces not to work the lower this number is even the the health of the economy is worsening.

     

    I do think the economy is improving, however like always the improvement is overly skewed toward the wealthy and the middle class is continuining to shrink.

     

    My belief is the worst the middle class is, the harder recessions/depressions are.
    10 Jan, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • dejadan
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    10000 people a day reach 65 years of age and will so for the next 15+ years. Most,not all retire. That is where the non-participation rate comes from. Yes,some give up,but those numbers cannot be discounted.
    10 Jan, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • Lakeaffect
    , contributor
    Comments (968) | Send Message
     
    dadajan - did you make that up? Participation rate of oldsters has been increasing for years. Not so many retiring as you say. http://bit.ly/KKJaBy
    10 Jan, 07:04 PM Reply Like
  • dagar burma
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    So what you're saying is the drop in the unemployment rate is overwhelmingly attributable to retirement. This mean absent that factor, there has been no real recovery. It's funny how those that engage mental gymnastics to justify the horrendous mismanagement of the economy end up making the counter argument. So the debate boils down to those who say the drop in the labor participation rate is attributable to retirement and those who say it's due to discouraged workers, but nobody is arguing that the drop in the actual unemployment rate is due to actual employment gains. Just so we're clear.
    12 Jan, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12716) | Send Message
     
    Further to all the usual debate about unemployment numbers, it's commonly misunderstood that the economy is not driven, or even much affected, by changes in unemployment at the margin. The economy is driven by the spending habits of the vast majority of people who are employed or have wealth, not the behavior of those unemployed or the small minority, compared to the whole, that join of leave the employed. Therefore, forecasting growth or recessions, based on monthly employment numbers, is mostly a specious exercise.
    10 Jan, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (413) | Send Message
     
    Agree, 2014 will be an interesting year,. How Will The Economy Improve In 2014 If Almost Everyone Has Less Money To Spend? Get Ready For Higher Taxes http://bit.ly/1a6zVW2
    10 Jan, 10:32 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12716) | Send Message
     
    m:

     

    The Republican House is going to pass higher taxes? Or, are the Dems going to take control at the midterms?

     

    P.S. Those types of hysterical Armageddon articles have destroyed more investors than economic conditions ever have.
    10 Jan, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • permanent
    , contributor
    Comments (115) | Send Message
     
    The drop in the unemployment rate may be due to the changes in Duration of unempoyment benefits. We are going into earnings season, what I wonder is if we are going to see more surprises like Alcoa.
    That could be a serious warning sign.
    10 Jan, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • mobyss
    , contributor
    Comments (1831) | Send Message
     
    74,000 jobs drops the UE rate by 0.3%?

     

    Then another 1,627,000 jobs gets us to 0.0% unemployment?

     

    Back in the Reagan recovery there was a month (September 1983) when 1.1 million jobs were created. A couple of those and we have absolute full employment.

     

    During the Obama recovery it takes 5 years to create a few million jobs.
    10 Jan, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Petrarch
    , contributor
    Comments (629) | Send Message
     
    I have stated it many times

     

    The initial numbers is +/-100k
    The revisions matter more so the "real' number will not be know for a number of months
    Anyone who trades off a single point estimate with that much error in it is the kind of person I want to trade with

     

    The payroll number does not tell you a whole lot. There are much better guides out there.

     

    P
    10 Jan, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • quabbin
    , contributor
    Comments (118) | Send Message
     
    Anyone who trades off a single point estimate with that much error in it is the kind of person I want to trade with

     

    Which point?
    The ADP number or the the NFP number ?
    Maybe the other person in the trade is thinking the same of you?
    World of Warcraft is so much easier than this.
    10 Jan, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9309) | Send Message
     
    Shhhh...don't tell them
    10 Jan, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Petrarch
    , contributor
    Comments (629) | Send Message
     
    Neither of those and not participation rate which is a meaningless stat in investment terms. If less people work and output and activity is rising - is that not a good thing? Why is it bad? in any case how do I invest off that number? Can someone join the dots for me because I cannot get there.

     

    Here's a couple for labour market
    BLS publishes JOLTS way more useful. This tells you about consumer confidence and the state of the job market. This is an interesting series - for example lower numbers for quits are bad and signal distress but very high numbers are also bad and signal to me at least an iminent worsening in profits. I can invest on those. Guess where we are right now?
    The 4 week jobless claims is the pulse of the economy - this tells you about the short term level of distress in the economy. More distress = bad. Less = good. You can invest of that.

     

    Many of you rail against the Fed because you feel that their policy is enabling Government to expand its debt and is not forcing the inevitable tough choices. That is I beleive is the basic premise for most opposition.

     

    Others of you hate the policy because you believe in free markets and believe the Fed activity is not letting market work well.

     

    Others of you also believe Fed action to create easy money will lead to excessive inflation.

     

    I understand all three arguments but to invest based on these ideas or any other political or economic ideology is a grave mistake.

     

    The US economy has recovered despite a moribun adminisatration and congress. It has been the Fed and some happy accidents related to energy production and its impact on the US

     

    Coming back full circle - for those of you on the thread who believe the US does not make anything anymore. The US manufactures more stuff today than at anytime in its history that it does so with less people is indciative of productivity not economic sickness. Furthermore the US is now attracting investment - not simply because of relative productivity but also energy costs. The future in the US is incredibly bright - if you add in the capital and other advantages. the other big benefit is NAFTA - there are almost 500 million people in North America - if the US can figure out how to fully integrate with its neighbours the combination will create major benefits. On this last point Obama has been shameful and I fault the administration for not only creating roadblocks with the trucking pilot but in not doing enough to really leverage this arrangement. For those of you who read economics - NAFTA done right is a pure evocation of comparative advantage where everyone wins and Mr. Ricardo would be proud.

     

    P
    11 Jan, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • kreiderg
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    If you want to know why you can't trust the unemployment numbers, search for the term "U-6" which is the category the government calculates for all those marginally employed, on SSI, have simply stopped looking for work, etc.

     

    The CNBC link below says actual unemployment for Dec was 13.1 percent when you count all categories.

     

    http://cnb.cx/1cKY70a
    10 Jan, 01:43 PM Reply Like
  • Jacob Steinberg
    , contributor
    Comments (814) | Send Message
     
    I wonder how many of the people who dropped out of the work force are retirees. There must be a lot of retirees since baby boomers make up the largest portion of the population and they are at the retirement age currently.
    10 Jan, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • mrdirt
    , contributor
    Comments (413) | Send Message
     
    People 55 to 64 years old, the first forget-about-retirement generation, are staying in the labor force to an ever greater degree. In 1992, only 56.2% were still in the labor force, in 2012, 64.5% were. Similar for older folks. The participation rate for people 65 to 74 years old jumped from 16.3% to 26.8%. Reality is this: fewer people can afford to retire.

     

    But who is not making it into the labor force? Young folks. The participation rate for those 16 to 19 has plunged from 51.3% in 1992 to 34.3% in 2012. OK, the BLS explains that by an increase in school attendance, and that would be a good thing. But the 25 to 54 year olds? Even among them, participation rates dropped from 83.3% in 2002 to 81.4% a decade later.

     

    Among the 18 to 34 year old “Millennials,” those lucky ones who’re official counted in the labor force, unemployment has been a nightmare, with double digit unemployment rates, still, nearly 6 years after the financial crisis, reported the youth advocacy group Young Invincibles. It’s even worse for the 16 to 24 year olds, whose official unemployment rate is still 15%!

     

    http://bit.ly/1gqGpQv.
    10 Jan, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • MLP Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (873) | Send Message
     
    mrdirt,

     

    Thank you. That should put to rest the myths about the decline in participation all being about the baby boomers retiring. It has contributed, but clearly there's something else going on. I think this picture tells the story:

     

    http://bit.ly/1ku2JhK

     

    Those baby boomers didn't all suddenly retire in 2010.

     

    Clearly we need more QE. ;-)
    10 Jan, 07:02 PM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2178) | Send Message
     
    Canda is certainly having a rough time recently with their unemployment.... of course they could change and measure like the US does and it would plummet.
    10 Jan, 04:42 PM Reply Like
  • sabresfan21
    , contributor
    Comments (133) | Send Message
     
    Gotta love jobs report day on SA.

     

    According to a lot of posters, it's either massive fraud in the reporting data or they're high-fiving each other because of the bad news.
    10 Jan, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12716) | Send Message
     
    And, still not making any money. :-)
    10 Jan, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9309) | Send Message
     
    And there you have it....
    10 Jan, 10:16 PM Reply Like
  • KJP712
    , contributor
    Comments (437) | Send Message
     
    Missing " Workers " May have left the country for overseas jobs.Or can be found sleeping at airports.
    11 Jan, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • alpha_zeta
    , contributor
    Comments (120) | Send Message
     
    Unemployment rate is misleading for 2 broad categories reasons:

     

    1. It's based on Number of People, but does not consider the $$$ value (their salaries/wage rate). Consider unemployment based on # of ppl dropping but the jobs added are junior or basic services / administrative jobs of below average pay. Economic contributions by those low wage earners are minimal

     

    2. Unemployment rate (even if based on number of people) drops b/c
    (a) Unemployment Benefits run out
    (b) People stop looking
    (c) baby boomers are hitting retirement ages (sure, some are considering to continue working, but some retire), so it's a matter of demographics which will happen regardless of the economy b/c its people hitting the retirement age zone ... guess what? without going to the statistics, persons working longer and near retirement had been working for years, so spent or have savings to spend, and likely higher-than-average salaries ... so that makes the $$$ value of those still working lower as these higher-than-average ones drop out of labour

     

    etc etc

     

    Economy is not in as good shape as media purports or the headline statistics purport
    12 Jan, 04:00 AM Reply Like
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