"For contrarians, the [gold] outlook appears brighter," write the Ned Davis commodity team of John LaForge and Warren Pies, acknowledging the curiosity of the metal's slump despite central banks printing away and unprecedented physical demand from China.
The metal is oversold on multiple levels they say, and has good long-term support in the mid-1,100s range. If gold rallies, they continue, then so will the miners.
Timing is a tough issue, but their best guess is sometime around the end of this quarter, triggered by a mid-year stock market correction. Look for the metal and miners to move first, and the equity downdraft to follow.
Gold (GLD -0.9%) is off marginally today to $1,249 per ounce, but the broad mining sector (GDX -0.9%) isn't showing any benefit from a $7.50 per share cash offer for Allied Nevada by China Stone Mining Development.
From yesterday: Goldcorp offers $2.6B for Osisko.