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Apple roundup: China Mobile, India, Nest, FQ1 estimates

  • A source tells the WSJ Foxconn shipped ~1.4M iPhone 5S (AAPL +1.7%) units to China Mobile last week in advance of the carrier's Friday 5S/5C launch.
  • The report follows cautious notes from Cleveland Research and Wedge Partners regarding early China Mobile iPhone demand. Estimates for China Mobile's 2014 iPhone sales have generally been in the 15M-30M range, and forecasts for the EPS benefit to Apple in the $2-$4 range.
  • The Economic Times reports Apple is set to re-launch the 8GB iPhone 4 in cost-sensitive India, after losing share to Samsung as a result of discontinuing the device.
  • The NYT recently discussed how the iPhone, which picked up Indian share last year with the help of aggressive marketing and installment plans, has become a status symbol in the world's second-most populous country.
  • By acquiring intelligent thermostat/smoke alarm maker Nest for $3.2B, Google is buying a company many thought would one day be acquired by Apple. Nest, whose products are sold in Apple Stores, was founded by iPod "godfather" Tony Fadell, features dozens of other ex-Apple employees, and has made heavy use of Apple's design and product philosophy. Sources tell re/code Google was the only serious bidder.
  • Ahead of Apple's Jan. 27 FQ1 report, Jefferies' Peter Misek (Buy) has raised his FQ1 estimates on expectations of more favorable 5S:5C mix. Misek also notes his Apple Supplier Tracker (covers Taiwanese companies receiving over 40% of their sales from Apple) only saw a 1.5% revenue drop in December, which is better than the 5% drop seen a year ago.
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Comments (38)
  • samuel_liu
    , contributor
    Comments (2799) | Send Message
     
    1.4 million of 260 million sold last year. Seems like, no, IT IS merely a blip in Apple IPhone sales!!
    14 Jan, 01:38 PM Reply Like
  • gensearch2
    , contributor
    Comments (1464) | Send Message
     
    260 million phones/year = 712K/day

     

    If we adjust for Apple selling 150 million iphones in 2013 the calculation would be.

     

    150 million phones/year = 411K/day

     

    Why you're even trying to equate 1.4 shipped phones for kickoff day is puzzling. Apples an oranges.
    16 Jan, 07:19 AM Reply Like
  • Deja Vu
    , contributor
    Comments (1277) | Send Message
     
    Move over pets.com, Kozmo.com, windows 8, Skype for 8.5 billion, Ron Johnson to JCP...all of you make way.

     

    A company making a thermostat with a $0.20 wifi chip is now worth 3.2 BILLION...
    14 Jan, 01:42 PM Reply Like
  • samuel_liu
    , contributor
    Comments (2799) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1m0Sfon
    The analyst says smartphones are commodity.
    14 Jan, 01:47 PM Reply Like
  • gensearch2
    , contributor
    Comments (1464) | Send Message
     
    You're correct samuel_liu .... thermostats with wi-fi chips are not commodities.
    16 Jan, 07:30 AM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (1885) | Send Message
     
    1.4MM 5S models, but it doesn't mention 5C. Assuming a 60/40 split, it would imply close to 2.5MM phones! 1-3MM seems to be the gathering consensus for the rollout sales, which is very strong. The 4S model only sold 4MM worldwide!! Remember, there were analysts saying Apple would only sell 3-5MM 5S and 5C models worldwide. Now CHL could come close to the low number by itself.
    14 Jan, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • samuel.kirz
    , contributor
    Comments (83) | Send Message
     
    @Samuel_Liu

     

    I don't know how you arrive at 260 million. Apple sold approximately 125 million iPhones in 2012 and are expected to sell approximately 180 million this year.

     

    1.4 Million iphones to one carrier for the launch is a big deal. That number is not for the quarter, it's for the launch. If Apple can sell 1 million phones to CHL customers per month it will have a material impact on the top and bottom line.
    14 Jan, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • ks_droid
    , contributor
    Comments (145) | Send Message
     
    180 million?! ... LOL ... you are mixing Apple with Samsung ...
    14 Jan, 02:04 PM Reply Like
  • samuel_liu
    , contributor
    Comments (2799) | Send Message
     
    some other poster mentioned that on another SA discussion. Thanks for correcting me, but I strongly feel that AAPL is overvaluing the security over the deal. TD-LTE is not comparable with global wireless stds though Apple has provided the frequencies for the IPhone to go on other global LTE stds.

     

    Living in Cn, IPhone buyers already mostly have done so as it is the #1 aspirational product! So primarily CHU profited from the EU 2g-LTE stds and less so CHA with its QCOM 3g/2g fixed SIMs.

     

    The Cn Mobile will gain traction in the future as it plugs-in to the sought after Apple ecosystem. Most significant is Cn gets its homegrown wireless stds embedded in all the major smartphone makers.

     

    So that is my line of reasoning. Of course it is often flawed!
    14 Jan, 02:06 PM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (1885) | Send Message
     
    180 is just under 20% YOY, droid. Throwing in all of the huge new carriers, I think it is conservative, actually. If Apple knocks it out of the park with big iPhones later this year, 200MM is quite possible. I read today that Digitimes is saying their contacts in the China/Taiwan supply chain are telling them 300MM!! Samuel, 5S and 5C are also compatible with CHL's homegrown 3G mode, too, aren't they(TD-SCDMA)?
    http://bit.ly/1lZKuiy
    14 Jan, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • samuel_liu
    , contributor
    Comments (2799) | Send Message
     
    TD-SCDMA is Cn's homegrown 3g and was barely decent.

     

    I feel humble eagles your optimism is extreme.

     

    IPhone has been carried by the 2 smaller Cn telecoms for a while.

     

    And when the IPhone 1st came out in 2007, people just brought those GSM units back to Cn had them unlocked and stuck in a CHU SIM card.
    14 Jan, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • ks_droid
    , contributor
    Comments (145) | Send Message
     
    Humble Eagles I have to disagree with you for several reasons and main one is that Samsung is approximately selling 2 - 2.5 times more phones compared to Apple. And if Apple will be selling 200 MM that Samsung should be selling 500MM per year which I believe is too much even for them... at least in my country 3 years ago it was like Apple everywhere now it's like Samsung everywhere ... big screen will be huge mistake for Apple and I am waiting forward for them making that one
    14 Jan, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (1885) | Send Message
     
    Samuel, I was referring to the Digitimes article. Here is the quote; it wasn't my idea:
    >>DigiTimes Research states that "Apple may see its shipments double in 2014 largely due to increased shipments to China and Japan as it will benefit from its cooperation with the largest telecom operators in the two countries...DigiTimes further notes that "The growth rate for Samsung will be limited in 2014 as its sales in the US, China and Japan will be depressed by growing popularity of iPhones." <<
    Droid, you could be right, but Samsung just warned of dropping sales! We will see.
    14 Jan, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • NWCats404
    , contributor
    Comments (243) | Send Message
     
    Actually not. Consensus estimates are for about 57M iPhones this quarter. That leaves only 123 through three quarters, which is easily reachable.
    14 Jan, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • samuel_liu
    , contributor
    Comments (2799) | Send Message
     
    there was a printed article studying the accuracy of digitimes articles.

     

    I rely on what I see and observe.

     

    But then you follow whatever will help you earn money

     

    Because I am not LONG: AAPL, just an extremely satisfied user.
    14 Jan, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • khoa_van
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    I disagree. Many of my friends and I owned samsung phones and we are waiting for apple to release a larger iphone screen so we can switch. Samsung only advantage now is the larger screen. I'm also waiting for the iwatch. Your logic: Samsung selling 2-2.5 times more phone than apple in the past doesn't prove Samsung will sale 500M if Apple sale 200MM. Like you pointed out 3 years ago, Apple was everywhere and now Samsung is everywhere in your country. I think 2014 and 1015 will be different; iphones will gain market share and the ratio might be 50:50
    14 Jan, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • samuel_liu
    , contributor
    Comments (2799) | Send Message
     
    an analyst on NPR just mentioned the smartphone industry as being commodified.

     

    Apple does not want to sell commodities, they sell premium products in most categories.

     

    I don't own an IPhone nor a Samsung Galaxy, would find it a shame for Apple to sell a "me 2" product without distinction.
    14 Jan, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • ks_droid
    , contributor
    Comments (145) | Send Message
     
    It is very unlikely, at least for my country (and there are many other countries like mine, where average monthly pay is 300-400$), as for the moment 70% of the smartphones are of the price tag less than 200$, where Apple is actually non-existent at present...
    14 Jan, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • Vitalogy80
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    KS...that's 20 comments, all in Apple articles/stories...every single one praising Android/Samsung and bashing Apple.

     

    How much does Samsung pay for every comment? Or do they pay by the week? Or how does it work?
    14 Jan, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • ks_droid
    , contributor
    Comments (145) | Send Message
     
    You really think companies pay people for commenting in blogs? I will stop bashing Apple when they start selling good phones for 300$ ...
    14 Jan, 03:50 PM Reply Like
  • Vitalogy80
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    Weird, cause Samsung has admitted it's hired people to bash rivals and praise Samsung using anonymous accounts.

     

    Why do you want them to drop the price to $300? Is it so you can afford it? I'd like Porsche to drop their prices too...but sometimes you get what you pay for.
    14 Jan, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • DanoX
    , contributor
    Comments (2668) | Send Message
     
    Samsung is lying about their number's, always has.
    14 Jan, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • khoa_van
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    Droid, I'm sure Vietnam is one of those country and they are dying to get a hold of an iphone5s. My relatives told me to buy iphone 5s in US and bring it back for them. About a month ago, they told me that Iphone 5s can be sold for $1300-$1400 dollars in Vietnam easily. The status symbol is much more important over there than US. I remember visiting VN back in 2000, all my relatives has the latest computers hardwares and much faster CPUs when I was still running 386s for college.
    14 Jan, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • DanoX
    , contributor
    Comments (2668) | Send Message
     
    The PC market for Microsoft OEM's is commodified, Apple's profit is half of all profit in the entire PC market, phones and tablet will be no different Apple isn't racing to the bottom the companies without a in-house OS are doomed long term.
    14 Jan, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • ks_droid
    , contributor
    Comments (145) | Send Message
     
    Well, I'm not paid by Samsung, to be very true I prefer HTC ...

     

    Technology should be available to everyone, not only to those people who are "rich", and I would not use iPhone even if someone will put a gun to my head and force me to use it. Android is here and it will finally bring the true spirit of technology to the world.
    14 Jan, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • Vitalogy80
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    So you want Apple to drop to $300, even though you still wouldn't buy it? Then why do you care what it's priced at?

     

    As I said above, I'd love to buy able to buy a Porsche for the cost of a Honda Civic, but I don't think that's going to happen.
    14 Jan, 05:37 PM Reply Like
  • khoa_van
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    Droid, if someone put a gun to my head I would have to listen/obey them, unless I have nothing to loose. You are a hardcore Android fan and I respect that. Even though I’m a fan of Apple, I’m still using Samsung phone and other electronics. However, I did brought my wife an Iphone5s. I’m not a fan of Louis Vuitton, but I would love to buy a LV bag for my wife for less than $500. But that will never happen.
    14 Jan, 06:15 PM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (1885) | Send Message
     
    droid wrote,
    >Android is here and it will finally bring the true spirit of technology to the world....<<

     

    That is actually pretty funny and I think I agree! Malware, poor battery life, instability, poor customer service, and wasted money pretty much describes the true spirit of technology for me too! Weird. Most of my problems were with Microsoft products, but my Android phone (HTC EVO) was definitely worse than any Microsoft products I have owned.

     

    >>I would not use iPhone even if someone put a gun to my head and force me<<

     

    Droid, tell the truth: are you really Eric S. incognito?!
    14 Jan, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • samuel_liu
    , contributor
    Comments (2799) | Send Message
     
    "Samsung is lying about their number's, always has."

     

    Cite your source!
    15 Jan, 12:08 AM Reply Like
  • Azazello
    , contributor
    Comments (816) | Send Message
     
    from the pattern and tone of your posts it is not a stretch to assume you may be one of them

     

    http://bbc.in/1199zgo
    15 Jan, 08:40 AM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (1885) | Send Message
     
    I am surprised the low cost version of the iPhone 4 isn't getting more attention. The article says the 5S starts at about $872, while Apple has put the 4 at about $244 with trade!! Maybe the 300MM number from Digitimes is legit. BTW, the iPhone 4, in my mind, is still the most iconic iPhone design, much like the original Mustang and Macintosh computer. Apple should sell it for a long time imho.
    14 Jan, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • samuel_liu
    , contributor
    Comments (2799) | Send Message
     
    just flip over the border to HK and save over $100 in HK for the IPhone 5S. The former IPhone 3 series and 4 series sold in Cn were handicapped that is w/o LTE.

     

    Actually last Friday there was a discount, I should have bought an AirPort hub then. Most products were discounted like on Black Friday in the USA.
    14 Jan, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • NWCats404
    , contributor
    Comments (243) | Send Message
     
    I read an AppleInsider article that suggested Apple was going to resume sales of the 4 in India, because sales were lagging since its removal. The suggestion, however, was that only excess supply would be directed there, not that production of the 4 would resume. The only way I can imagine 300M phones this year is if Apple produces a ton of 4s and 4Ss and prices them very aggressively in India, Indonesia, Brazil, etc. Or, if somehow the production/sales numbers include refurbished phones. That DigiTimes article suggests 1.24 billion phones would be shipped in 2014, with almost 25% as iPhones. That would be a monumental feat. I see 200M as a [relatively] conservative estimate for the FY. I expect 58M in Q1 and ~50M in Q2. Apple sold approximately 35M 4Ss in Q2 of 2012, almost as many as the 36M sold in Q1 of 2012. That means that ~35M subscriptions come up for renewal this quarter. Take that into consideration, alongside the presumably large CHL influence, continued strong sales at DoCoMo, recovery in the EU, etc., and I foresee good numbers.
    14 Jan, 03:12 PM Reply Like
  • samuel.kirz
    , contributor
    Comments (83) | Send Message
     
    Correction,

     

    I didn't mean to write 180 million phones. I was trying to write 150 million but I hit the 8 instead of the 5 because I have a fat thumb.

     

    However, 150 is definitely too low. Apple had sold 102.2 million iPhones before the start of the christmas quarter (37.4, 31, and 33.8 by quarter, respectively). If they sell 58 million iPhones, they could hit 160 million for the year.
    14 Jan, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (1885) | Send Message
     
    samuel, you were actually correct and likely going from memory, although likely confused by Apple's FY. They sold 150+ in FY'13. Just under 20% is 180 and a conservative estimate for FY 14, considering the additional footprint. We are in '14 Q2 right now, so Q1 is in the books. If there is any truth to Apple selling iPhone 4 models for $244 it will be a lot more.
    14 Jan, 04:02 PM Reply Like
  • 2puttwo
    , contributor
    Comments (470) | Send Message
     
    KS - is that why Samsong is down 30% since May and dropping faster than a newlyweds panties. Can't compete with the i5S on the top end, and everybody and all their dogs on the bottom. Talk about getting squished. MB is probably buying puts right now. That's going to be one sorry conference call.
    14 Jan, 06:04 PM Reply Like
  • UnStopaBull!
    , contributor
    Comments (176) | Send Message
     
    Great news before bed or to being

     

    Apple's China Mobile deal to extend beyond handsets
    12:03 AM ET, 01/15/2014 - MarketWatch

     

    By Paul Mozur

     

    BEIJING -- Apple Inc.'s deal with China Mobile Ltd. to sell iPhones won't be limited to handsets, but will also entail broad cooperation between the two companies, the chairman of the world's largest carrier said Wednesday.

     

    China Mobile (CHL) Chairman Xi Guohua said that already multi-millions of Apple's iPhones have been ordered by its customers, signaling strong demand for the device. Apple's (AAPL) iPhones will begin selling at China Mobile, the world's largest carrier by subscribers, starting Friday.

     

    Speaking in a small media briefing to Chinese media and The Wall Street Journal, Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook said he is "incredibly optimistic" about the outcome of the cooperation with the Chinese carrier.

     

    "We've gotten to know each other....today is a beginning, and I think there are lots more things our companies can do together in the future," Cook said.

     

    The new cooperation with China Mobile is the last piece of the puzzle for Apple in the country, officially making the iPhones available through all three of China's state-run telecom carriers. Though neither Apple nor China Mobile would comment on the exact terms of the deal, Apple is likely to get a considerable bump from China Mobile, which analysts expect to spend generously on marketing and handset subsidies to sell the iPhones.

     

    The cooperation also massively expands the reach of Apple's sales channels in China, making the iPhones available in China Mobile's thousands of stores that range across the country from large cities to tiny hamlets.

     

    That's MULTIMILLIONS!!!!!
    15 Jan, 01:52 AM Reply Like
  • 2puttwo
    , contributor
    Comments (470) | Send Message
     
    Great news. Thanks for sharing UnStopaBull. Think we might enjoy sailing down wind for a change. All those head winds were starting to try my patients.
    15 Jan, 02:10 AM Reply Like
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