PC stocks turn in a strong day amid Intel hopes

PC industry names outperformed amid a broader tech rally, aided by a JPMorgan Intel (INTC +4%) note that argued PC demand is stabilizing, and tablet cannibalization diminishing. A number of chip stocks also rallied strongly (SOXX +2.1%).

Also: Major hard drive suspension assembly maker Hutchinson has reported above-consensus Dec. quarter sales, while citing strong demand for 2.5" notebook drive assemblies. Seagate and Western Digital both rallied.

JPMorgan's Christopher Danely, who upgraded Intel to Overweight, has raised his 2014 estimates soundly above consensus ahead of the chip giant's Thursday Q4 report. Danely notes Intel, Microsoft, H-P, and others have said PC demand is improving, and that Taiwan's big-4 notebook contract manufacturers collectively grew their shipments 7% Q/Q in Q4. Q1 shipments are expected to drop in-line with seasonality.

He also points out tablet shipment growth is decelerating, and forecasts shipments will only rise 25% in 2014 (down from 53% in 2013).

Danely's optimism contrasts with another bearish Intel note from Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon, who estimates five mobile CPU sales are needed to make up for one PC CPU sale, and doubts Intel's foundry business will move the needle.

PC industry gainers: MSFT +2.3%. HPQ +2.6%. AMD +4.1%. NVDA +3.1%.


Previous: Goldman on Intel's Q4, Gartner/IDC's Q4 PC estimates, Intel's light 2014 guidance

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Comments (14)
  • rjgood
    , contributor
    Comments (233) | Send Message
    Yep, 2014 is the year PC shipments stabilize.


    US decline at 0%. Worldwide (emerging markets mainly) at minus 6-7%. The PC decline is nearing the bottom.


    Look for a positive adjustment as those who can't produce on a tablet go back to PC.


    I tried to produce software on tablets, was way too small of a keyboard/screen. The surface "type" keyboard is the best I found (large keys, great feel, backlit)...but it is still a tiny device compared to my home/office command centers of wide screens, large keyboard and mouse.


    Bye bye tablet war. Let the war for the TV commence!
    14 Jan 2014, 06:43 PM Reply Like
  • wil3714
    , contributor
    Comments (2367) | Send Message
    this is 2013, tablets are a fad
    14 Jan 2014, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • Ruffdog
    , contributor
    Comments (3695) | Send Message
    If you have a home computer why are you producing software on a tablet?
    14 Jan 2014, 09:22 PM Reply Like
  • 3D Investing
    , contributor
    Comments (1552) | Send Message
    tablets are not a fad. They will be here for a long time. People are just realizing tablets are more of a toy than a productivity device. Laptops are going to still be the way forward. Laptops are so thin and light now that you get the best of both worlds.
    14 Jan 2014, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • wil3714
    , contributor
    Comments (2367) | Send Message
    PC is aligned w/ employment but tablets are a fad like the ipod. Once you have one you dont need another.


    Name one product you buy continuously that isnt a necessity? This isnt the razer blade model and they know it since they are making multiple acquisitions.
    15 Jan 2014, 06:16 AM Reply Like
  • billeebong
    , contributor
    Comments (179) | Send Message
    15 Jan 2014, 09:20 AM Reply Like
  • wil3714
    , contributor
    Comments (2367) | Send Message
    not everyone drinks but good point
    15 Jan 2014, 08:52 PM Reply Like
  • rjgood
    , contributor
    Comments (233) | Send Message
    @Ruffdog, my wife and I have two small children and had to move our home office into the bedroom nook. The surface works great when I let her sleep in and code from my dining room table. But productivity is cut down considerably. The touchscreen does help reduce the hit, since touch really does speed up some actions.


    My setup: 2 Win 8 PCs in the bedroom. 1 surface tablet + "type" keyboard in the kitchen (recipes, music, One Note grocery list, etc.) Xbox for TV. Laptop in storage for when I need to hit the road.


    And the fact that the surface keyboard folds *up* vertically, saves a lot of counter space.


    Have to let the wifey sleep in on weekends, or reap the consequences!
    16 Jan 2014, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • robertgillies
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
    Since you can buy a laptop pretty cheap it doesn't make sense to replace it with a tablet. The folding design of a laptop with it's keyboard is pretty hard to beat. If you need something more compact you can buy a smaller laptop. You get a lot more functionality for your money. The tablets have to compete not only with the laptop but also with the new fancy cellphones who have most of the features of a tablet. The combination of a good cellphone and a laptop leaves out the need for a tablet.
    14 Jan 2014, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • KFed
    , contributor
    Comments (93) | Send Message
    Tablet is convenient and useful,but doesn't replace PC and people eventually need to upgrade. Tablet is extend the upgrade cycle a little longer.
    14 Jan 2014, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • Stock Market Mike
    , contributor
    Comments (3738) | Send Message
    HTCH's suspension assembly shipments up 12% Y/Y? That should mean that notebook shipments were higher this holiday season than 2012. I have this feeling that 2014 might actually see PC shipment growth in North America. If that's the case, the bottom was 6-9 months ago and we're already rising again.
    14 Jan 2014, 11:30 PM Reply Like
  • youngdividend
    , contributor
    Comments (177) | Send Message
    15 Jan 2014, 02:17 AM Reply Like
  • PeteCal
    , contributor
    Comments (90) | Send Message
    I use a desktop and a tablet.
    The desktop for real work with multiple open windows
    The tablet for fast power on, quick checking of websites, reading in my easy chair.
    Laptop screens are too small for multiple windows
    Phablits are too bulky to carry.
    15 Jan 2014, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • frank paxman
    , contributor
    Comments (1667) | Send Message
    I appreciate the validation from ya'll on my opinion about not needing a tablet. My smartphone and laptop provide me all of the capability I need to conduct business.My 17" screen laptop provides so much capability. When I'm done I just fold 'er up. My 4G smartphone provides all the anywhere, anytime connectivity I require, and its performance, speed, etc. is incredible. I might eventually try a tablet for mobile convenience and light browsing, and as a toy.
    15 Jan 2014, 09:36 PM Reply Like
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