Seeking Alpha

Apple iPhone goes on sales at China Mobile

  • Apple (AAPL) has finally launched the iPhone on China Mobile's (CHL) massive network, but despite the carrier's 763M subscribers, skepticism exists about how much the companies will benefit.
  • "You need to consider the cannibalization of (iPhone) sales from China Unicom (CHU), China Telecom (CHA) and the grey market," says Gartner analyst CK Lu. "So even though there's an addition from China Mobile, it will also impact sales from other channels as well."
  • As for China Mobile, there are concerns about subsidies it might have to pay. "I don't see a price war coming where Apple is engaged in the war, but I do think you're going to see a subsidy war coming," says Michael Clendenin of Shanghai-based RedTech Advisors.
Comments (41)
  • u01bsb0
    , contributor
    Comments (616) | Send Message
     
    theres always someone who tries to put water on the fire.
    17 Jan, 05:16 AM Reply Like
  • aardvark3
    , contributor
    Comments (335) | Send Message
     
    We knew this was coming. They have a very small window left to throw us all the negative rumors they have before the truth is revealed. Same old. Just means a bigger bounce for the stock.
    Amusing.
    17 Jan, 08:22 AM Reply Like
  • u01bsb0
    , contributor
    Comments (616) | Send Message
     
    chances are that on monday we will be hearing news of a huge number sold.
    17 Jan, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • Applocrat
    , contributor
    Comments (754) | Send Message
     
    More distribution points matter. If this argument were sound, then investors ought to be furious with every chain store ever. Why open more than one location? Customers who want to shop at Walmart can all go to Arkansas. They have cars. Once they walk to Detroit to buy them of course.
    17 Jan, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • khoa_van
    , contributor
    Comments (33) | Send Message
     
    Apple now has access to 763M subscribers. News of Larger Iphone, Iwatch, sapphire investment, tech firms buyout, and Angela Ahrendts to join able in a few months; however, analyst are still bearest. With the current valuation, the only direction for apple is up this year.
    17 Jan, 05:44 AM Reply Like
  • Book value
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message
     
    http://bit.ly/1j6lNi9

     

    Check out these Flickr photos at CHL iPhone launch taken around China. Seems to me that Apple just hit the jackpot. I couldn't really care less about analyst BS. Let the dogs bark and just enjoy the ride.
    17 Jan, 06:05 AM Reply Like
  • ks_droid
    , contributor
    Comments (71) | Send Message
     
    To me that doesn't look like crowd :)
    17 Jan, 06:28 AM Reply Like
  • Book value
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message
     
    ks_droid, I don't know what picture you pointed out because to me that looks like quite a few crowds. And I would assume that none of these shoppers were among the 1M+ people who pre-ordered, so Apple will probably sell another 1M very quickly through CHL.
    17 Jan, 06:44 AM Reply Like
  • ks_droid
    , contributor
    Comments (71) | Send Message
     
    “Today is just the beginning of China Mobile and Apple coming together to deliver the best experience in the world,” Cook said as a few dozen people came in to look at the iPhones on display. @Bloomberg
    17 Jan, 07:02 AM Reply Like
  • smart_investoor
    , contributor
    Comments (175) | Send Message
     
    it's not a new product, consumers already know about it. why wait in line and when you could just order it online or later on for those with contract.
    17 Jan, 07:12 AM Reply Like
  • diaboliqueguan
    , contributor
    Comments (252) | Send Message
     
    and the crowd is bigger at your birthday party? did Tim Cook attend too?
    17 Jan, 07:40 AM Reply Like
  • bdalglish
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Flickr Photos of crowds in China at opening of iPhone sales:

     

    http://bit.ly/1cAEZ1y
    17 Jan, 10:58 AM Reply Like
  • Azazello
    , contributor
    Comments (603) | Send Message
     
    @ks_droid
    I figured it out: she is a Tizen software engineer!
    19 Jan, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • Azazello
    , contributor
    Comments (603) | Send Message
     
    @ks_droid
    she is all http://bbc.in/1199zgo
    19 Jan, 09:08 AM Reply Like
  • tcisajerk
    , contributor
    Comments (42) | Send Message
     
    Let's guess
    They will sell 30 millioni in the first day
    There will be a 2 month wait tho
    and Timmy is a logistics expert....

     

    lol
    17 Jan, 06:21 AM Reply Like
  • UnStopaBull!
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Wow those people in those crowds pics must be the richest in all of China since so few of the Chinese could ever afford the IPhone.
    17 Jan, 06:48 AM Reply Like
  • UnStopaBull!
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    And then there is this

     

    NII Holdings (NIHD), Apple (AAPL) Enter Pact for iPhone 5s, 5c
    6:15 AM ET, 01/17/2014 - Street Insider
    NII Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: NIHD) announced it will offer Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone 5s, the most forward-thinking smartphone in the world, and iPhone 5c, the most colorful iPhone yet, to Nextel Brazil customers beginning January 31, 2014. Customers may pre-register interest today at http://www.nextel.com.br.

     

    So that should probably add about 10 more iPhones to the overall total
    17 Jan, 06:52 AM Reply Like
  • synchrogeddon
    , contributor
    Comments (180) | Send Message
     
    seeing that many bad news it does make sense AAPL is down right now
    17 Jan, 06:55 AM Reply Like
  • UnStopaBull!
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    Hey everyone, Best Buy is having a save up to 30% off tablet sale. Samsung, Microsoft and Amazon all on sale. Wonder why they need to discount these????
    17 Jan, 06:58 AM Reply Like
  • ks_droid
    , contributor
    Comments (71) | Send Message
     
    I bought Samsung Galaxy Tab 2 for 350$, it's OK I like it but I think that price is too high ...
    17 Jan, 07:06 AM Reply Like
  • Vitalogy80
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    For someone who loves Android, you seem to spend all your time in Apple threads? All 34 posts...impressive
    17 Jan, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • Azazello
    , contributor
    Comments (603) | Send Message
     
    @Vitalogy80
    catching up?
    http://bit.ly/1aquUUY
    19 Jan, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • Azazello
    , contributor
    Comments (603) | Send Message
     
    @Vitalogy80
    also, I have absolute proof of ks_droid's gender: she is around 23 and is a student. I have an app on my Android tablet (you should see the spec-sheet on its label: it has 12 cores!—the Pudong district Pacific Digital Plaza vendors are the most trustworthy in the world, not like Tim the Crook Cook) that surveys posts and with great accuracy analyzes the the poster's profile. The app's developers claim 100% accuracy for gender. It's amazing! I caught it to try to forward my address book over the net but I am used to mischief in my _free_ Android world. Apple's walled-garden App Store rejected this precious app! Yeah, the fanbois are green with envy!
    19 Jan, 09:44 AM Reply Like
  • szeducate
    , contributor
    Comments (78) | Send Message
     
    If any other company in the world were receiving the news lately that Apple has been getting, their stock would be up 50 points. On no news Google rises 20 points. No matter how large the crowds, no matter what new products, or possible new carriers are announced, there will be people like this article that will find its just not enough. It makes me sick.
    17 Jan, 07:59 AM Reply Like
  • Davy Crockett
    , contributor
    Comments (120) | Send Message
     
    Another piece of news that the market has overlooked: Skyworks (SWKS) just reported excellent quarterly earnings and guidance, almost certainly related in large part to record setting iPhone 5s sales, because they have a couple of chipsets in every iPhone. We'll find out for certain in 10 days...
    17 Jan, 10:00 AM Reply Like
  • ramachandran
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    China mobile will be selling I phones in 3000 additional stores this weekend
    17 Jan, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • AnInterestedInvestor
    , contributor
    Comments (65) | Send Message
     
    I do not agree with this article's theory; Buy Buy Buy

     

    China Mobile Will Cannibalize the other 2 telecom companies is bad for Apple? If a consumer liked China Mobile enough to remain on their system for years and now buys an iPhone it’s a net add for appl.

     

    If a customer moves from the others to China Mobile with their iPhone that neutral for Appl

     

    If a customer now buys from China or from another country and activates on any of the carriers that is a net gain for Appl

     

    If there is a price war and in that excitement anyone buys a new iPhone for any carrier that's a net add for Appl.

     

    All good or neutral news fir Appl.

     

    BUY BUY BUY
    17 Jan, 09:05 AM Reply Like
  • NWCats404
    , contributor
    Comments (223) | Send Message
     
    In related news, the Samsung debacle continues. DoCoMo dumps Tizen product last minute:

     

    http://bit.ly/Ka2TL4
    17 Jan, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • wrc.99
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    Apple has got to be the most unloved Company by analyst?
    Apple though is one of the most loved Companies by it users!
    17 Jan, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • UnStopaBull!
    , contributor
    Comments (165) | Send Message
     
    There was a article on SA about how Apple most often gains on Mondays and Tuesdays and sells off on Thursdays and Fridays. Since reading the article this has shown to be the case. I don't like or understand it but it has made me feel better about days like these when I feel the stock should be going up and it is going the other way.
    17 Jan, 10:03 AM Reply Like
  • Atkins
    , contributor
    Comments (1037) | Send Message
     
    Almost all of the action is options-related unstopabull. I see nothing to indicate this trend will reverse in the near future. That is what will keep Apple range-bound for the foreseeable future. Apple is not an easy stock (unless you're a market maker or options guru, in which case, it's very easy to play).
    17 Jan, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • pocohonta
    , contributor
    Comments (535) | Send Message
     
    Also, there's a MLK holiday on Monday, and buying pressure usually builds up and most stocks (not just Apple) tend to pop on Tuesday if there's no bad news over the long weekend. Also, given the earning announcement on 27th, Apple "should" correct upward in anticipation of excellent earning and guidance.
    17 Jan, 12:00 PM Reply Like
  • cshoxie
    , contributor
    Comments (250) | Send Message
     
    I say again: Apple is a great company, that makes great products and billions of dollars. Unfortunately, that does not equate to profits for investors, especially the "buy and hope" investor. This is so predictable. Now we'll have to wait for the IPhone 6 or the IWatch to see if Apple still has what it takes. And the game goes on.
    17 Jan, 10:18 AM Reply Like
  • Atkins
    , contributor
    Comments (1037) | Send Message
     
    Correct, cshoxie. I'm an Apple bull, and it's my largest holding, but there are many other opportunities elsewhere in this market. Apple is not a bad bet, but it is simply too constrained by the options to have the sort of runs that we've seen in dozens of other tech stocks.

     

    Low short interest + options play and pinball = Limited ability to predict or anticipate a breakout.
    17 Jan, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Jack Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (886) | Send Message
     
    Cue the FUD. Apple will penetrate 15% of CM's 170 mm 3g customers in 2014. That will be 25.5 million. Add to that 20% of the 45 mm existing 2G (very slow) CM iphone customers in the first year that will want a much better phone on a MUCH better network. That's another 9 million units. Apple will conservatively do 34.5 million additional units with CM in 2014. But, yet again, Apple will have to speak with numbers as every yellow journalist and ignorant blogger will try and spin-it negatively until Apple shuts them up with actual numbers as they have time and time again.

     

    Meanwhile, in the "real" world, Google goes up parabolically on new that they overpaid for an ex-Apple developers thermostat and that they may come out with a smart contact lens for the limited diabetic market in 5 years.
    17 Jan, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • jjkiam
    , contributor
    Comments (331) | Send Message
     
    Yes I agree with the post about the extraordinarily reliable up on Monday down on Friday pattern. Also now the stock is back below where it was before the reports of over a million preorders came out due to a surprising report and conclusion from the NY Times based on
    One store l!!! Many other pictures has been posted that seem to show a much different story about demand. But it is not surprising to me that there is a large media push from NYT, CNBC or Bloomberg and a number of predictably bearish Apple analysts attempting to prove that the new CHL deal is actually a negative for Aople and that there will be no substantial additive results for sales from it. This is consistent! Remember all the same responses about the new phones a few months ago. And then all the attempts to prove that Apple was
    Lying when it announced 1st weekend sales of
    9m. We will see this kind of downward pressure all the way up to the q1 results. And then q2 guidance will determine if this stock jumps. If q2 guidance is not much higher than current estimates, look out below !!!
    17 Jan, 10:26 AM Reply Like
  • Atkins
    , contributor
    Comments (1037) | Send Message
     
    If Apple's Q2 guidance is not completely breathtaking (whatever that means in the eyes of the street), then it's going below $500 until a new product category is introduced. Would be a good opportunity to pick up shares in the $480-$500 range and hold for a long-term gain.

     

    I don't think that good Q1 results will be enough to pump the stock up much beyond where it is today. The guidance is critically important and will be the only fact that the market considers to be relevant.
    17 Jan, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • Mycroft
    , contributor
    Comments (648) | Send Message
     
    There are currently 145 million smartphones in the USA of which Apple has a 40.7% market share. So Apple has 59.1 million I-phones out there in the USA. The USA has 327 million mobile phones in use. So that 59.1 million = 18% of the total USA market for mobile phones is an I-Phone. China and India alone have 2.13 billion mobile phones in use right now, so if Apple can achieve that same 18% market share we have Apple I-Phones being 383 million phones sold in China and India someday. The world has 6.8 billion phones in use right now and at 18% that would equal 1.224 billion I-phones. To date Apple has sold 89 million I-Phone 5S models which is just 1.3% of all mobile phones sold. I would imagine it would be the desire of every human on the planet to own an I-phone as a status symbol so we have a very long way to go.
    17 Jan, 10:29 AM Reply Like
  • twist54
    , contributor
    Comments (58) | Send Message
     
    Assuming that all the above 'markets' have same level of disposable income pa as a typical American citizen? Your logic here is why so many AAPL shareholders are wrong in their win-win assumptions. Sell before the stock plumbs $450 in less than 6 weeks time!
    17 Jan, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Rock210372
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Is it a given to these analysts that canabalizing from other iPhone uses in China is the only result? Surely, users of other phones under China Mobile will now jump to iPhone, and the potential numbers from this group is definitely significant over the next few quarters if not years.
    17 Jan, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • real_techie
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    Shouldn't cannibalization lead to subsidy war, which will actually boost iPhone sales against other brands?
    17 Jan, 10:58 AM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Tools
Find the right ETFs for your portfolio:
Seeking Alpha's new ETF Hub
ETF Investment Guide:
Table of Contents | One Page Summary
Read about different ETF Asset Classes:
ETF Selector

Next headline on your portfolio:

|