Seeking Alpha

UBS: Gold upside breakout hopes dashed; platinum too

  • 'The gold market is lacking enthusiasm and interest," say UBS's Edel Tully and Joni Teves, noting the metal's failure to respond to the weak payroll data last week. "With hopes of an upside break now dashed, collective sentiment is firmly back in the bearish camp."
  • The two extrapolate gold's sour mood to platinum: "The early-2014 price rally has now become stale. Platinum seems to be running out of steam around these levels, and spillover weakness from gold would be enough for platinum to give in to the downside from here."
  • Gold ETFs: GLD, IAU, PHYS, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, DZZ, UGLD, DGL, DGZ, AGOL, DGLD, GLDI, TBAR, UBG
  • Platinum ETFs: PPLT, PTM, PGM
Comments (28)
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    I find it comical that Seeking Alpha editors post this kind of rhetoric when gold is clearly on the upswing. It's as if they search for anything negative they can and post it here. Anyone else notice this?

     

    "The gold market is lacking enthusiasm and interest."

     

    Yeah...except for those who I told gold would move higher in January and are profiting from this current upswing!

     

    Recap of 2013 and Past Calls on Gold and Silver
    http://bit.ly/KaF0D1
    17 Jan, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • filipo
    , contributor
    Comments (2733) | Send Message
     
    Spot on, Doug.
    I think UBS must have been betting on the wrong horse to utter such a nonsense.
    Two articles have caught my attention this afternoon:
    1/
    http://reut.rs/Kne56u

     

    2/
    http://bloom.bg/1hyJPSm

     

    There's something moving, it appears, and the current spike of gold to over $1,250/oz seems to be related to these news items.

     

    UBS's commentators might easily be compared to Iraq's Chemical Ali, remember ?
    17 Jan, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • ltsgt1
    , contributor
    Comments (1372) | Send Message
     
    Doug,

     

    Good call regarding the rise in January, are you still standing by the call that gold price will going lower thereafter?

     

    Do Germany's accusations have any effect on your outlook?
    17 Jan, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10146) | Send Message
     
    DOUG

     

    I just almost broke down laughing.. This has to be a joke !!
    17 Jan, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    filipo, thanks...yes, always something going on eh?

     

    Itsgr1, thanks...Yes, I do believe the price will fall and break the lows again before we enter the 3rd stage. I will then write my all-in article.

     

    There could be things that occur, like this Germany issue, that can change my tune, sure. Have to look into it more. Haven't had a chance yet either to read this last budget that Congress just passed. The last one increased spending for the next two years by $83 billion before a "promise" to reduce by $23 billion in 10 years. What are the odds? As I said to fiilpo above, it's always something and my recommendations are still to dollar cost average into some insurance (gold).

     

    IT, thanks! I'm keeping track!
    17 Jan, 09:32 PM Reply Like
  • 6151621
    , contributor
    Comments (1167) | Send Message
     
    Doug, I would agree and further add that if this price action is coming from negative sentiment then this move could really start going. If gdx keeps going nothing to show negative sentiment to me. Some juniors are really looking good maybe because of m&a recently.
    18 Jan, 11:02 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    I'm with you 615... We'll see what kind of legs she has for right now.
    18 Jan, 11:07 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (10146) | Send Message
     
    Doug

     

    In my challenge on my blog all I need it for (NUGT) to go up a few more bucks and I am way ahead of those picking stocks...Not far fetched as I have a stop in the game to get out a little over 44 bucks.

     

    I just need a little run here next week and I am out !
    18 Jan, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • Doug Eberhardt
    , contributor
    Comments (2727) | Send Message
     
    IT, I think you'll get it, but the pullbacks will try and shake you out.

     

    The passing of the budget takes away more of the reasoning for owning gold (but we know that's a joke if one understands adding debt and cutting what you add by a little doesn't balance the books if GDP doesn't pick up with it) and just the awareness of some texts going back and forth (doesn't surprise me and heck, Jamie Dimon drops in at the White House in person, lol) might shake some things up in the short term.
    18 Jan, 11:28 PM Reply Like
  • SharkDude
    , contributor
    Comments (551) | Send Message
     
    Yes. Keep selling gold. Maybe buy some TWTR or TSLA instead. They may have profits in 4 years.
    17 Jan, 01:25 PM Reply Like
  • FrankinMiami
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    I thought this was comical also, gold holding above 1250 today and miners up 10% for the month.
    17 Jan, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Rubenov
    , contributor
    Comments (385) | Send Message
     
    How timely.
    17 Jan, 01:34 PM Reply Like
  • NadgesNokindo
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    Every time gold goes up, another bank comes out and lowers forecasts or says its a sell.

     

    Like clockwork.

     

    In Bed with the Fed.

     

    Their end is near.
    17 Jan, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • bartlow
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    Agree, good point. And risk has been reduced considerably by the liquidation of long positions:

     

    http://bit.ly/1hyIScT
    17 Jan, 01:48 PM Reply Like
  • bartlow
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    Also, from Decision Point a chart of Rydex net long positions in PM's:

     

    http://bit.ly/1cBz2BJ
    17 Jan, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • DeepValueLover
    , contributor
    Comments (8145) | Send Message
     
    I was hoping gold would actually fall into the $900s so that I may pick up some more coins.

     

    Looks like that opportunity will not be around anytime soon.

     

    Interest rates heading back down and strong signs of a pothole in this "recovery".

     

    We are likely to see $1,300 before $1,100.
    17 Jan, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • ltsgt1
    , contributor
    Comments (1372) | Send Message
     
    I gave up waiting for $1100 and took delivery for what I'd bought on the way down since $1350. Something has changed, Germany is crying like a bastard child looking in through the window at the father's new Chinese bride.
    17 Jan, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • user878
    , contributor
    Comments (95) | Send Message
     
    If the history repeats itself, I guess we are likely to hit $1800 before $1100.
    Tell mw why Iam wrong or right!!
    17 Jan, 05:56 PM Reply Like
  • bartlow
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    Notice also the persistently large discount to NAV for the major ETF's... this just one sample.

     

    http://bit.ly/1cBzHD3
    17 Jan, 01:51 PM Reply Like
  • FrankTrades
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
     
    Breakout dashed? HUH? I got Gold in the 1250's this afternoon.
    17 Jan, 02:01 PM Reply Like
  • justaconsumer
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
     
    In the end the gold price needs to go up because the comex is running out of registered physical.
    Being in paper gold is dangerous though, the paper market is obviously manipulated by powerful entities... and only 1 in +- 100 contracts is backed up by real physical... If there is a rush on the physical comex inventory (which has been going on for a while) there are only 2 ways out. Either the gold price goes up untill players decide the price is high enough to transfer their gold from elligible to registered. Or a default. What happens with a default? The price of physical will cut loose from the paper gold price. If that happens you wanna own miners or physical. Not the paper crap... Being in paper gold right now is like tossing a coin.

     

    Head: The big players like a comex default.

     

    Tails: The big players do not like a comex default.

     

    Do you like the 50% odds? Then you can probably do a nice bet with GLD in 2014!

     

    Just my humble opinion.
    17 Jan, 02:25 PM Reply Like
  • mikeknapp101
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    Funny this came out today when Gold is spiking higher! Sounds like someone's shorts are riding up on them.
    17 Jan, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • augeor
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    I, for one, intend to bore my family add some more ho-hum metal to our portfolio. No, I won't put all the eggs in that basket, but neither do I think it's wise to hold none.
    17 Jan, 02:36 PM Reply Like
  • Arion
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    Lots of manure around desperate for a pony.
    17 Jan, 02:38 PM Reply Like
  • james.
    , contributor
    Comments (242) | Send Message
     
    The ludicrous comments by UBS's Tully in the above artice are obviously outdated by today's price action in GLD, XAU, HUI, Platinum, and Silver all demstrate without any doubt that the Precios Metals Bears are desperately grasping for straws !
    17 Jan, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • SharkDude
    , contributor
    Comments (551) | Send Message
     
    Large commercial banks and Central banks want to talk down gold because they are buyers. Just last week physical bars in London were unavailable. They all know this is a slow sneaky race. China again bought more than expected last year. And that is that we know of. You know China is buying as stealthily as possible. Someday gold will be 5000 bucks and central banks will be bragging about how much they accumulated over the years.
    17 Jan, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Manuel Blay
    , contributor
    Comments (336) | Send Message
     
    Gold and silver have rallied without conviction in the last few days. And we should not forget that the primary trend for both metals remains bearish. On the other hand, SIL and GDX, the gold and silver miners ETFs may be providing some tailwind to gold and silver, since today, Jan 17, their secondary trend turned bullish according to the Dow Theory, as explained here:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    So long term both gold, silver and their miners are in bearish trend, but something is changing as far as the intermediate or secondary trend is concerned.
    17 Jan, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • 6151621
    , contributor
    Comments (1167) | Send Message
     
    Right, a bear trend?! Trend seems horizontal to me so do we continue down or reverse up. If you look back US equities are in a bull trend so much so that sentiment would indicate not much power to run further. Now is the time to be on the look out for reversals.
    19 Jan, 02:02 PM Reply Like
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