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Gilead's hepatitis C drug Sovaldi gets off to strong start

  • Total prescriptions (TRx) for Gilead's (GILD +1.3%) hepatitis C pill Sovaldi rose almost 70% to 1,764 in the week ended January 10, although it's worth pointing out that previous weeks included the holidays.
  • "Still, the Solvadi scripts to date are impressive and point to early, strong demand for the new Hep C pill," says Adam Feuerstein.
  • ISI analyst Mark Schoenebaum says: "If TRx were to only remain flat through year end and we assume 20% discounting on price and a similar capture rate to [Vertex Pharma's (VRTX)] Incivek for sales...we estimate that FY 2014 sales could be ~$2.4 B."
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Comments (9)
  • Leonard Yaffe
    , contributor
    Comments (161) | Send Message
    I continue to believe that Sovaldi/FDC 2014 sales are very underestimated. My forecast continues to be $8 billion, and is a function of the regimen's clear superiority as the backbone of therapy for HCV oral therapy, the increased number of patients who will be treated in the US in 2014 (as well as in future years) and the H2 2014 availability of the fixed dose combination, which has greater efficacy and will afford GILD a pricing advantage. My price target for GILD remains $140. Len
    21 Jan 2014, 10:30 AM Reply Like
  • ds141414
    , contributor
    Comments (21) | Send Message
    Wait until ABBVIE's Hep-C cure is approved if you want to see some sales. Their Protease Inhibitor treats all genotypes- Gilead's treats only about 30% of the Hep C infected patients. It isn't used for the most common Genotype 1 which covers almost 70% of the population. For some reason that is never really pointed out by financial journalists. I have Hep-C. If I want to use Gilead's formula I need to include Interferon which is a nightmare I have already been through. So I will wait a few months for the ABBV approval. It will not require Interferon for my Genotype 1 form of the disease.
    21 Jan 2014, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • mjsergi
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
    Maybe $140 for a 12 month target I agree, but my target for 2015 is $245... It pays to hang on to these things for the long term. It will take 20 years to eradicate the disease off the planet, and until then Gilead has other drugs in the pipeline.
    21 Jan 2014, 02:32 PM Reply Like
  • karmaswimswami
    , contributor
    Comments (125) | Send Message
    ds141414: not meaning to be rude, but you are just about as incorrect as it is possible for a person to be about Gilead's agents.


    But I wouldn't buy Gilead. It has negative book value from its acquisition spree and has mortgaged its soul to control the HCV market. It paid 11 billion just to get sofosbuvir, never mind the cost to develop it all the way to approval. Sofosbuvir/ledipasvir will cure all HCV in 12 weeks even among null responders. I feel its success is priced into the stock and from here it can only disappoint, especially as AbbVie's agents wend through trials to get approval. Never mind proteinase inhibitors. Proteinase inhibitors are gaslight for HCV. Betting on proteinase inhibitors is a losing bet.
    21 Jan 2014, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • Chiipy-Nostradamus
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
    ...and we have LIFTOFF in $ $GILD !!
    21 Jan 2014, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • Leonard Yaffe
    , contributor
    Comments (161) | Send Message
    My expectation is that GILD will achieve 2015 EPS of $7 with a forward growth rate of 18%. Under this scenario, it is hard to believe that the stock will not trade much higher. While ABBV is expected to introduce an excellent multi-drug regimen in Q4, by that time GILD's superior FDC (which treats G1) should be on the market. The recommended screening of the 1945-'65 birth cohort for Hepatitis C is forecast to incrementally diagnose up to an additional 800,000 patients with the disease, or 5 years worth of additional therapies. And this is only the US! Beyond Hepatitis C,GILD has a pipeline in oncology, Hepatitis B and fibrosis. As I stated previously, it is common for stocks to stall as they approach multi-year highs; GILD has now resolved this situation to the upside. Len
    21 Jan 2014, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • elvispresly
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
    Another marvel of modern medicine,my idea of the American success story,takes well paid devoted motivated medical men. To solve the immediate promlems,not fagazy global warming.bravo Gilead
    23 Jan 2014, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • elvispresly
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
    Thank you to gilead for following the American dream and bringing us,the marvels of modern medicine. Proving once again there is nothing better for all involved rich or poor then our great free enterprise system,in our great country
    23 Jan 2014, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • nitiyoso
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
    Gilead is not all about Sovaldi,


    There is also Sofosbuvir / Ledipasvir fixed drug combination that clears up to 94% of Hep C Genotype 1 in only 8 weeks without pegylated interferon or ribavirin.


    The result of this phase 3 (ION) study is anncounced here:


    If you have Hep C genotype 1, maybe this is the choice for you, since it is is only 8 weeks, all oral, without peg interferon and without ribavirin.


    It is expected to get marketing approval in the first half of 2014 too.


    Lets hope for the best to our Hep C patients.
    27 Jan 2014, 01:17 AM Reply Like
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