Seeking Alpha

Gold price target cut at Morgan Stanley

  • Lower gold prices will likely boost Chinese physical demand, but won't be enough to "materially reverse" the downtrend in the metal, say Morgan Stanley analysts Peter Richardson and Joel Crane, cutting their 2014 forecast by 11.6% to $1,160 per ounce, and 2015 by 12.5% to $1,138. No surprise to the key thesis: Higher interest rates as a result of the global economic recovery gaining traction.
  • Mark Hulbert reports on the work of Claude Erb whose simple interest rate correlation model says the metal will plunge to $831 per ounce should the 10-year Treasury yield rise to 4%.
  • Gold ETFs: GLD, IAU, PHYS, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, DZZ, UGLD, DGL, DGZ, AGOL, DGLD, GLDI, TBAR, UBG
From other sites
Comments (25)
  • Quoth the Raven
    , contributor
    Comments (2125) | Send Message
     
    Big surprise: http://seekingalpha.co...
    22 Jan 2014, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • Brian58
    , contributor
    Comments (190) | Send Message
     
    more proof that they're losing control of the situation. Using all their minions now.
    22 Jan 2014, 09:40 AM Reply Like
  • Humble Eagles
    , contributor
    Comments (2210) | Send Message
     
    I don't think they are losing control. Read this excellent article and ask yourself if you really want to be on the opposite side of the trade with the Fed!! http://bit.ly/1aA4NeI
    I would really love to be a a big gold bull, as some of the miners look great, but I don't want my lunch money stolen by the Fed! I know many argue they can't control the market, but don't forget that they can create billions of dollars out of a few keystrokes.
    22 Jan 2014, 11:55 AM Reply Like
  • Brian58
    , contributor
    Comments (190) | Send Message
     
    COMEX is almost dry.

     

    http://bit.ly/LVNBux
    22 Jan 2014, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • nooseah
    , contributor
    Comments (526) | Send Message
     
    Indeed they can .... but sadly (for them) they cannot create billions of ounces of gold with a few key strokes, which is exactly the case for owning it.
    23 Jan 2014, 05:44 AM Reply Like
  • justaconsumer
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
     
    Best article explaining the gold situation i've read so far! A "must read"!
    23 Jan 2014, 07:02 AM Reply Like
  • sethlemay
    , contributor
    Comments (198) | Send Message
     
    very interesting article.
    13 Feb 2014, 07:36 PM Reply Like
  • digi
    , contributor
    Comments (54) | Send Message
     
    of course it won't, GLD is going out of business just like the LBMA and the COMEX. Paper gold is just that, paper right now. Imagine I told you you can buy corn futures for delivery in May, but hey I will only settle in cash at the time as I don't have any corn for delivery. Basically that market is useless to anyone interested in taking delivery or locking in price for the item itself like a seller/producer. The only people this product is useful to is a short term speculator. Remember, when SHTF and these empty promises are made visible, god help the people holding this crap.
    22 Jan 2014, 09:45 AM Reply Like
  • justaconsumer
    , contributor
    Comments (104) | Send Message
     
    Yep, buy miners or physical instead
    22 Jan 2014, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • 6151621
    , contributor
    Comments (1180) | Send Message
     
    Another set of useless analysis basically saying that we think nothing will change and gold will be slightly lower. Supply and demand will matter more than what 4% ten year. These guys are living inside the broken system, how could one expect them to see the large scale change that is coming?!

     

    Using anchor bias is about job security. If a big change happens they can point to all the other analysts they have herded together with like a flock of sheep. Hoping Ms Yellen makes it all work for them, if not that then maybe another 600 tonne liquidation from gld will do the trick.
    22 Jan 2014, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Arion
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    Let the weeping, wailing and gnashing of teeth of the banksters begin. The gold manipulation game is about to end. The first time they have to settle in cash for a contract with expected delivery of the physical the game is over.
    22 Jan 2014, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • goldtein
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    I think that JP are playing with soft but dramatic predictions to buy at lower price
    22 Jan 2014, 10:45 AM Reply Like
  • Brian Bobbitt
    , contributor
    Comments (2007) | Send Message
     
    Maybe I am stupid, but just looking at almost ANY longer term chart of the yellow metal, I see an uptrend. (near term a trading range) But not a downtrend. Am I getting so old now that I can't read a chart. Gold's "reversal" as they call it would be a resumption of the downtrend, not as MS puts it, a continuation of the downtrend. (or 'is in a downtrend') MS says in this article
    Yes, the gold market has dropped dramatically in price, and for the life of me I am dratted to explain how and why. But, as I live and breathe, and you can keel-haul me if I'm wrong, but gold has seen its bottom. ( and Ag too )
    In my article long ago, I described my 'bottom' in Ag at $26.26, and the day of publishing the article here in SA it (silver) literally plunged.
    Now I say the plunging is over, and this bouncing off the $1,183.72 for Au and the $18.36 level for Ag has put in the bottoms.
    If I'm wrong this time, I'll walk the plank and not disturb the SA readers and authors any more.
    Again, I am saying, this be it! Get your low prices now.
    I say it due to my extreme look into the average precious metal mining costs, the real economic path of the NGM's (nice government men [that includes the NGW's]) , the total economic picture.
    Even in downturns in economies, Ag is used in many applications and investment grade silver is a result of the need for silver, not a few investors. One can put gold and silver in brackets and interchange it.
    The only difference between Au and Ag is the symbol and the ratio. You can look at a lot of tea leaves, but those two major factors is the real controlling agent.
    You can add in sentiment if you like, but that is a cause, a result, not prime driver. Sentiment can change over night, but the real fundamentals which price Au and Ag are the real drivers.
    I think one should ask, "Why has the PM's stopped falling?" And can the big dogs really control the price over time?
    I say, it has stopped falling because at these levels, it closes in on the average producer price, and the big dogs cannot control the price lower than this. Too many willing hands below here.
    This as been proven.
    Now I lay down my pen and wait. I know a storm is coming, I can smell it, the economic barometer is falling and too many tongues wagging. Too much interference from governments to allow normal flow of business to continue.
    I feel too, that Russia and China are going to be trading for oil in someone else's currency more and more.
    One thing could save us, and that is for us to stop, totally, buying foreign oil, and begin selling it more. We have more domestically than we can ever use. Switch to Natural gas and most of the problem of oil would evaporate like a dry ice cube in the south in summertime.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    22 Jan 2014, 11:23 AM Reply Like
  • maui1
    , contributor
    Comments (57) | Send Message
     
    questions.......

     

    if the fed stops buying treasuries and mortgages, and no one else in the world is, who buys them to fund our gov't?

     

    if rates go up, to get some buyers, how does the usa service it's debt payments?

     

    both the questions above prove the 'pickle' the fed is in........to make another point.......

     

    if no one audits the fed, then who knows how much gov't debt it is buying or not buying?
    22 Jan 2014, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • nooseah
    , contributor
    Comments (526) | Send Message
     
    Correct. They are cornered. Anyone who believes QE will end anytime soon is deluded. Who in their right mind will step into the Fed breach if they exit?
    23 Jan 2014, 05:48 AM Reply Like
  • NadgesNokindo
    , contributor
    Comments (45) | Send Message
     
    And yet another bank. Why do we even listen to or comment on these criminals' forecasts?
    22 Jan 2014, 04:36 PM Reply Like
  • 6151621
    , contributor
    Comments (1180) | Send Message
     
    Why does SA think this will provide "Alpha" unless we are suppose to test for some contrarian analysis indicator.
    22 Jan 2014, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • filipo
    , contributor
    Comments (4024) | Send Message
     
    GS keeps on repeating the same tantrum against all odds.
    22 Jan 2014, 04:52 PM Reply Like
  • 6151621
    , contributor
    Comments (1180) | Send Message
     
    And getting their frat buddies at other banks to go along with the call.
    22 Jan 2014, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting Times
    , contributor
    Comments (13274) | Send Message
     
    One day no one will listen nor care what they say !!
    23 Jan 2014, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • sa_member_756157
    , contributor
    Comments (1368) | Send Message
     
    So obvious, agree, this is a manipulation. SEC, isn't it time to do something? Of course banks and financial institutions want gold to fall, they will win all sorts of ways. First, they gain when investors put money into their companies instead. Second, they gain when they buy back gold at attempted set price of 800 bucks. Imagine how much they'll make in those planned, manipulative trades.
    22 Jan 2014, 07:52 PM Reply Like
  • Edward Ulysses Cate
    , contributor
    Comments (80) | Send Message
     
    It's obvious that Morgan Stanley is 'seeking alpha' at your expense,
    even if you don't care about gold.
    22 Jan 2014, 08:01 PM Reply Like
  • nooseah
    , contributor
    Comments (526) | Send Message
     
    If the precious metal trading desk at Morgan Stanley want to buy gold, do they encourage their clients to Buy gold or Sell gold? Just sayin ...
    23 Jan 2014, 05:50 AM Reply Like
  • Edward Ulysses Cate
    , contributor
    Comments (80) | Send Message
     
    Well, well, well.
    In less than 30 days, Seeking Alpha runs this commentary:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    No wonder JPM, GS, MS and so on call their clients "muppets."
    14 Feb 2014, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • 6151621
    , contributor
    Comments (1180) | Send Message
     
    @Edward -- go catch on how muppets are to be pushed around.
    14 Feb 2014, 01:25 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Hub
ETF Screener: Search and filter by asset class, strategy, theme, performance, yield, and much more
ETF Performance: View ETF performance across key asset classes and investing themes
ETF Investing Guide: Learn how to build and manage a well-diversified, low cost ETF portfolio
ETF Selector: An explanation of how to select and use ETFs