Analysis: Retail store closings to take off

Overall retail space could be reduced by between one-third to one-half over the next ten years, forecasts industry watcher Michael Burden.

The harsh assessment could indicate the round of store closings from Sears Holdings (SHLD), J.C. Penney (JCP), and Macy's (M) is only the tip of the iceberg. Watch for American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), Aeropostale (ARO), Dillard's (DDS), Nordstrom (JWN), and Kohl's (KSS) to enact some logical downsizing, while even Wal-Mart (WMT) and Best Buy (BBY) could surprise with some paring.

Analysts think stores at malls will be shuttered faster than open air outlets.

What to watch: Vibrant brands such as Michael Kors (KORS), Lululemon (LULU), and Vince (VNCE) could shift into a standalone mode as consumer demand stays strong for their on-trend products, but mall metrics trend weaker.

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Comments (9)
  • bebopr
    , contributor
    Comments (557) | Send Message
    "Change" often occurs far faster than expected, catching key managers off guard and asking, "what happened" when its too late.


    There is simply no way to avoid the reality of the effects of on-line purchasing on brick & mortar stores. The critical issue is how fast the conversion will occur. At present, the percentage of on-line general merchandise sales to total sales is not large, although the year-to-year percentage increases are meaningful and likely to accelerate, resulting in an ever-increasing share of sales.


    Successful brick & mortar corporations will be those that take full advantage of the Internet while closing or converting stores to meet changing consumer demands for in-store shopping.
    22 Jan 2014, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • jw4golf
    , contributor
    Comments (339) | Send Message
    visualize the mall of the future, pot shops, tattoo shops, local cooperative garden vegetables, electric chair races for the geezers, more food stuff. what a future
    22 Jan 2014, 02:24 PM Reply Like
    , contributor
    Comments (6982) | Send Message
    Eddie Lampert was ahead of everyone.
    22 Jan 2014, 03:03 PM Reply Like
  • Jack Be Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (41) | Send Message
    You champion Sears way too much.
    13 Feb 2014, 09:04 AM Reply Like
  • Anne Bonney
    , contributor
    Comments (105) | Send Message
    The article focus is on retail. I look around the uber metro area that I live in (ground zero for oil & gas) and see available merchandise stock sharply down, fewer customers at malls, all manner of shops and stores, and restaurants (hey look---no line!), I more than just wonder what is going on. It does not match with what I hear about the improving economic conditions. Looks a lot like a deepening recession to me. It is not just the internet shopping; it goes much, much further than that.
    22 Jan 2014, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • bebopr
    , contributor
    Comments (557) | Send Message
    Right-on, Anne.


    The current down-state of retail sales is far more related to economic conditions than increases in Internet sales. Middle class folks make up the bulk of purchases and they are nervous or scared for many reasons, to name few. Will they have a job tomorrow? What will their health insurance costs be? What will their taxes be? And so on. Look for sluggish sales until these issues are resolved.
    22 Jan 2014, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • bambag
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
    I'm one of those trying to stay middle in marketing for a major has been rough and I've been getting paranoid. Minimum raises for since 2008, higher health care costs with the coverage reduced to minimum (by the new health care standards), hiring freeze, they said they "want more" with "less...I get it but I stopped buying anything I don't need and we eat at home. Actually, I'm waiting for the next shoe to drop. And to tell you the truth, I don't feel middle class anymore...I feel like we're upper lower class,
    29 Jan 2014, 12:35 PM Reply Like
  • jalex1973
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
    I think bebopr has got the line on reality. Those who do not qualify for "tax vouchers" for health insurance are seeing rates higher than before. Add the high $5000+ for a single person and ones ability to "purchase/shop" is greatly curtailed. My rate is $240 higher a month with the new plan on the exchange compared to what I was paying. So there is much less for me to spend at a store.
    22 Jan 2014, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • rube123
    , contributor
    Comments (2256) | Send Message
    looks like AMZN and EBAY are paving the way for the strong, and crushing the weak. the biggest thing with the online, is the price comparing , some can't compete, and will go away. some will thrive.
    back in 1995 looks like Bezo's was a visionary
    even WMT is playing catch up to AMZN in some areas , but they plan to catch up
    "Wal-Mart plans on spending $0.10 per share on e-commerce development in 2014."



    AMZN is pretty amazing with their technology
    "Amazon's technology allows it to change prices 2.5 million times per day"


    some of the small fries wont survive , here is 1 that wont survive




    23 Jan 2014, 09:32 AM Reply Like
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