Seeking Alpha

At the close

  • Dow -1.92% to 15885. S&P -2.07% to 1791. Nasdaq -2.15% to 4128.
  • Treasurys: 30-year +0.52%. 10-yr +0.31%. 5-yr +0.18%.
  • Commodities: Crude -0.46% to $96.88. Gold +0.48% to $1268.4.
  • Currencies: Euro -0.15% vs. dollar. Yen -1.%. Pound +0.82%.
Comments (26)
  • in January 2005 from 12/31/2004 to 1/24/05 SPY lost 3.57% and MDY lost 4.57%....from that point until the ending of the year....
    SPY was up 8.71% and MDY went up 17.96%
    24 Jan, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Two days doth not a trend make.
    24 Jan, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • In January 2005 oil was $42 and unemployment was about 5%
    24 Jan, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • 3 weeks is a little different then 48 hours. By this time next week, the fat lady (or Yellen) will be warming up for the untaper or the collapse of the banking system. Either way, it's coming. Play time is over.
    24 Jan, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • The Money Markets and Savings deposits to Total Market Capitalization ratio was 45% whereas today it is 49%...12 month trailing earning yield was 5.58% today it is 5.98%
    24 Jan, 05:18 PM Reply Like
  • I think the market needed this, and I think it needs to revisit 1750-1760 levels before longs can get excited again. Plus, there was a vacuum of US econ. news so some emerging market hiccups were bound to shake things out. 40 handles in one day, though... that's a sell-off.
    24 Jan, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • You not worthy doing stock investment panicking over some loss. You lose some, win some. It's good for me that all the amateurs fear and flee away, that will give me opportunity for better entry. I've got 4 more stocks in my radar now. Bought 4 last and this week.
    24 Jan, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • Predictable sequence:
    1. healthy pullback - nothing to worry about.
    2. Typical 10% correction , absolutely normal.
    3. Correction in a bull market 20%, buying opportunity.
    4. See , i told ya - market is up 2%!!
    5. 30% down, still up from last January. market is crazy.
    6.. 40% down. Ridiculous market. Fundamentals are still good. Too late to sell anyway.
    7. Hmmm.... earnings are down 20-50% across the board. Stocks are overvalued!!!

     

    We are not even at stage 1 yet.
    24 Jan, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • totally agree with you. Time to pick up some bargains.
    24 Jan, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • I understand the bargain mentality approach as I participate to a certain extent by buying more as certain stocks goes down.

     

    But it is not always successful, of course. Today's bargain, at some point, may be tomorrow's loss. No doubt millions of people bought stocks at bargain prices all the way down. Perhaps they made it up in the current bull market if they held on to their bargains. Or maybe not.

     

    Funny, though, how some bargains were yesterday's new 52 week highs.
    25 Jan, 10:41 AM Reply Like
  • I sold into weakness to protect myself. I'm well positioned for Monday. I kept enough long so that I'll profit if the market rises. If this is the start of a correction, I'll sell those and go short and profit.

     

    The weekend at hand may make a difference, but normally when we finish on the lows like we did today, next session we're headed lower.
    24 Jan, 10:02 PM Reply Like
  • Smitsky: Forgive me for not knowing, but how would you determine if this is the "start of a correction" or just a minor pullback before going higher? Would you sell your longs and get short if we moved down another 3%, 4%, 7%? What is your indicator?
    25 Jan, 09:14 PM Reply Like
  • Hi Jim. I don't think any of the pros are forecasting a bear market. The possibility of a 10% correction on the other hand is real, and expected this year.

     

    In the above statement I was referring to my trading account. I have another account that is long-term that I almost never touch. That I would even let ride through a bear market, as I did in 2008.

     

    In my trading account I have a rule that states not to let an issue drop more than 8%. Recently when trades have been moving against me, I have sold closer to 5% and sometimes less.

     

    I don't think it's possible to "know" if this is a pullback or the start of a deeper correction. A few support levels were breached in both the Dow and the S&P these past 2 sessions. For instance, 1800 did not hold in the S&P Friday. For now we are watching the 50-day moving averages in both the NASDAQ and the Russell 2000 to see if they hold. The Dow Transports are right on their 50-day. Also, if the December lows are broken, we may see another round of selling. So, all we can do is watch the action, rather than "know" what's going to happen is my opinion. WDC, LVS, PGNX, & CCJ, moved against me on Friday so I sold those. If CAMP, and ACLS move against me this week, I'll sell them. If we start to go down Monday morning I may buy SDS, etc. Hope that helps!
    26 Jan, 01:01 AM Reply Like
  • Definitely helps. Thanks
    26 Jan, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • The fall off is relatively minor. If the market can't stomach this fall off then it really is overvalued and filled with overly optimistic investors who are ignorant of the risk and can't afford to lose.
    25 Jan, 02:07 AM Reply Like
  • Next week is margin call week
    25 Jan, 05:02 AM Reply Like
  • "Funny, though, how some bargains were yesterday's new 52 week highs."

     

    I was just laughing about that. Anyway some old wisdom applies. The best time to buy stocks is 10, 20, 30 years ago. In order to achieve this enviable condition you have to buy what is on sale now, or you'll never be in that enviable position 10, 20, 30 years from now.

     

    I don't worry too much about blips like 300 point drops. I worry some about 3000 point drops, but they're rare. Anyway my strategy for handling either of these events is the same. I will do nothing.
    25 Jan, 11:41 AM Reply Like
  • As a mid to long term trader and investor, I use different approaches in different situations. One thing that comes to mind here is that it's often not wise to try to buy during a correction unless you know exactly what you're doing. For instance, If you are using any kind of stop loss technique say 10%, and you buy a stock that you envision rising later, you are doing two things which are tricky. One you are going against the short-term trend, which at the moment is down. Two, you are envisioning the issue rising later into strength. This may not occur. Issues with powerful relative strength do not pull back that much during a correction, and take off to the upside as soon as buyers come in. Let's say your issue keeps pulling back past your 10% stop loss rule. You say, "I'll make an exception because this is an overall pullback." Well, there is no assurance your issue will be brought back up quickly. You may have to wait. Just a thought which I hope helps. Good luck!
    25 Jan, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • The BEARS are coming.
    25 Jan, 02:39 PM Reply Like
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    26 Jan, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • Ok coolguy, I'll bite... Please tell us a little about your due diligence here....Otherwise, you look alot like a troll pumper....
    29 Jan, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • I was very lucky in that I transferred from a 401K to an IRA Rollover a couple of days ago. So approximately 28% of my money was sold off after closing on Wed. and was not available to me on Thursday. Even though it was available on Friday I just sat on the sidelines and thought of how much money I saved by not having been invested with that money.

     

    If you can't be good, be lucky and I was very very lucky. I will wait until I see things turning around and then re-invest it as I see fit, looking for bargains along the way.

     

    Good Luck to All!
    26 Jan, 03:52 AM Reply Like
  • I don't understand why this happened. From my understanding, we have inflation and we will have more inflation, a lot of inflation. (Wages going up, more government spending, every country doing stimulus programs) so why would stock go down? ever? Please help me understand. Thank you.
    26 Jan, 07:41 AM Reply Like
  • From what we're seeing, this particular sell off was sparked by data coming in from international markets. News out of China on Thursday, and a less than completely orderly sell off in emerging market currencies Friday, spilling over into the US and global equities markets.

     

    The stock market reacts to these happening because of perceived possible short to long term complications stemming from these events. Reactions like these are to be expected. My advice is to try to be prepared for markets to go on a wild ride from time to time.
    26 Jan, 11:08 AM Reply Like
  • not so fast. coming weeks will offer better bargains
    26 Jan, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • Kennehtpm: I hope you're right. Although, numerous times in the last 18 months, we've sharply dropped 3-4% and then made it all back up in the following weeks. I've learned my lesson not to get too excited too early. We're due for a 10% correction, and by gosh I'm waiting for it before I buy anything! =)
    26 Jan, 03:11 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)