- Exxon Mobil (XOM) shares have gained 8.2% during the past three months, whipping rivals Chevron (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP), but Barclays analysts think that sort of outperformance can't hold up.
- The firm attributes XOM's strong showing to the Buffett effect, the stock’s safe haven status, and the expectation that production has finally bottomed with Q3 marking the inflection point towards higher growth; but due to the recently expired ADCO license in Abu Dhabi and the Dutch government’s decision last week to cut Groningen gas production due to tremor concerns, 2014 likely will result in yet another year of negative production growth.
- As a result, the firm cuts its 2014 EPS forecast to $7.20 from $7.40 but still expect XOM to beat Q4 consensus forecasts of $1.92 by $0.04.
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