Seeking Alpha

Sentiment no longer as bearish in Treasurys

  • How much of this year's bond rally is because something has changed fundamentally with the economy, and how much is just because of so many entering the year crowded on the bearish side of the boat?
  • This chart from LPL Financial of CFTC data show traders were as net short as they've been in years at the end of 2013. It didn't take much - a weakish employment report in early January forced some covering, which forced prices higher, which forced more covering. "When coupled with fundamental drivers, positioning and sentiment can be a potent combination," says LPL's Anthony Valeri.
  • At this point, the heavy short position has been mostly neutralized. Is there another catalyst that can send rates even lower.
  • Former bond bull, now economy bull David Rosenberg: "The bond rally has gone global but again is based more on investor jitters than on what’s exactly happening in the developed world economy."
  • Treasury ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, TBF, EDV, TTT, TMF, ZROZ, SBND, TLH, DLBS, VGLT, UBT, TLO, LBND, TENZ, TYBS, DLBL
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Comments (2)
  • fred1724
    , contributor
    Comments (67) | Send Message
     
    Hard to see that the economy has improved all that much (if at all).
    30 Jan 2014, 09:48 PM Reply Like
  • Grant Dossetto
    , contributor
    Comments (192) | Send Message
     
    The bond rally will end after people have actually jumped into the pool, not just covered their short positions.
    1 Feb 2014, 07:47 AM Reply Like
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