In order to draw the necessary capital to pull emerging markets out of their swoon, real interest rates have to go higher, says Citigroup. A near-doubling of the benchmark rate in Turkey last week only pulled one-year borrowing costs up to 3.6%, less than half the average in the thee years prior to 2008. The real yield in Mexico (EWW) is about zero. In South Africa, it's 1.4% vs. 2% over the past decade.
“When you have low real rates and try to finance your current-account deficits, it usually won’t work,” says Citi LatAm strategist Dirk Willer. “If the U.S. is repricing for higher rates, it’s very difficult for you to get away with lower rates. South Africa (EZA) and Turkey (TUR) are not safe yet.”
EEM -0.5% premarket
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