Seeking Alpha

Global electric vehicle production on the rise

  • IHS Automotive forecasts global electric vehicle production will increase 67% this year as a number of major automakers (DDAIF, BAMXY, TTM, HYMLF) enter the category (EV and plug-in hybrids) or try new markets.
  • Europe will account for 40% of all EV production, followed by Asia at 30% and the U.S. with 27%, according to IHS.
  • Three EV trends to watch: 1) Automakers (NSANY, TM, GM) needed a high level of incentives to spur electric car demand in the U.S. last year. Will 2014 be any different? 2) Demand in China for EVs could soar if the government keeps instituting mandates to lower pollution in major cities. 3) The war of words between Tesla (TSLA) and Toyota (TM) on electric batteries vs. hydrogen could intensify late in the year as the much-hyped Toyota FCV debut gets closer.
Comments (24)
  • Dan Fichana
    , contributor
    Comments (1870) | Send Message
     
    And where will you conveniently fuel the toyota HFC. Only a handful of stations in the US.
    How is the hydrogen made on a large scale?
    How much is the hydrogen going to cost?

     

    To me looks like hydrogen is dead on arrival.

     

    Make a coast to coast hydrogen trip. Currently it is impossible since almost all the public stations are in California
    4 Feb, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • gen3
    , contributor
    Comments (296) | Send Message
     
    When the TESLA drivers were doing a 200 mile top up charge in thick snow the car was charging while they would presume be inside having a hot drink or a meal.
    You would have to stand in the snow for 16 minutes holding the hydrogen filling pump. Hydrogen cannot be made to pour as fast as gasoline it fills slow or it freezes.
    4 Feb, 07:41 PM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (4555) | Send Message
     
    While I'm not a big fan of hydrogen, we should get the facts straight. Modern test concepts such as one from Toyota just require 3 minutes to fill the tank for around 300 miles of range:

     

    http://bit.ly/1irm1QO

     

    I don't see where you get the 16 minutes...and I don't know who drives more than 300 miles per day except for maybe a few times per year.
    5 Feb, 05:47 AM Reply Like
  • John Bingham
    , contributor
    Comments (848) | Send Message
     
    Hi tftf,

     

    I see the Toyota HFCV has "twin hydrogen tanks". Why do you think it needs two tanks? It seems rather strange.

     

    Maybe you'll have two separate hoses to fill the tanks and that will cut down your refill time. Ultra high pressure gas does tend to cool rapidly when it expands into a lower pressure tank. The standard tanks fill to 344 atmospheres pressure - 5000 lb/sq in - so the pump pressure must be higher than that.

     

    Or maybe Toyota really can't get the safety aspects fixed for the proposed 700 atmospheres (about 10,000 lb/sq in) single tanks.

     

    But they MUST have over 300 miles range for the maximum number of zero emission credits! So I guess two tanks was the only option.

     

    Don't want to worry anybody but 5000 lb/sq in is about two and a quarter TONS per square inch of gas inside the tank that really would like to get out!

     

    Whatever - we'll see what the reality is when these proposals come to fruition. I'm not holding my breath....
    5 Feb, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • chicagomary
    , contributor
    Comments (83) | Send Message
     
    anyone notice that $TM's earnings were 5x last year? I bought some this am.
    4 Feb, 03:22 PM Reply Like
  • David at Imperial Beach
    , contributor
    Comments (3777) | Send Message
     
    Plug-in hybrids do not offer the same value proposition as pure EVs. Most of these vehicles are hybrids, not true EVs. Fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are an entirely different value proposition from the other two. They should not be conflated.

     

    Unless Toyota announces a worldwide investment in hydrogen charging stations comparable to Tesla's supercharging stations, it's FCV is destined to be an also-ran that gets sold to a few fleet buyers that are willing to install a compressed hydrogen station of their own.
    4 Feb, 03:27 PM Reply Like
  • TITAN89
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    I own EV car is not convenience , also to find the charging station is not easy as of now,
    Either you have to pay for parking or pay for to charge.
    Plug in hybrid is still good for now. Like Prius or Volt.
    Buying a Tesla Car is very expensive $ 65000 to 100K , with only 200-285 miles per charge is still to expensive for average car buyer,
    Unless Tesla will be able to make lower price car with 200- 285 miles for the price of Nissan Leaf or Prius .
    5 Feb, 12:46 PM Reply Like
  • Christopher Cowan
    , contributor
    Comments (150) | Send Message
     
    But can all of the other automakers rake in the premiums that Tesla can?

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    4 Feb, 03:35 PM Reply Like
  • kmi
    , contributor
    Comments (4000) | Send Message
     
    Incentives will lose relevance as costs come down via production and efficiency improvements and volume pricing.
    4 Feb, 05:01 PM Reply Like
  • Cassina Tarsia
    , contributor
    Comments (641) | Send Message
     
    Elon Musk is right - electric will win by a mile over hydrogen!
    4 Feb, 05:06 PM Reply Like
  • evjohn
    , contributor
    Comments (131) | Send Message
     
    No maybe a 100 miles ....
    4 Feb, 08:34 PM Reply Like
  • Cassina Tarsia
    , contributor
    Comments (641) | Send Message
     
    I think that something is wrong with the "like" buttons since I don't seem to be able to make them work ... and by the looks of things few others can either ... almost all "0"s here.
    5 Feb, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • antiguajohn
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message
     
    For EVs:

     

    1 - Produce electricity which travels over existing electrical grid.

     

    2 - Plug in EV at home, work or many countrywide charge points.

     

    For hydrogen vehicles:

     

    1 - Energy to make hydrogen.

     

    2 - Storage for the hydrogen.

     

    3 - Transport of hydrogen to storage at point of sale.

     

    4 - Staffing of point of sale.

     

    Any questions?

     

    Or do I need to direct you to that old engineering KISS principle:

     

    Keep It Simple Stupid!

     

    Nuff said.

     

    antiguajohn
    5 Feb, 01:06 AM Reply Like
  • surferbroadband
    , contributor
    Comments (1341) | Send Message
     
    Six people commenting about Tesla and Hydrogen, only three people talking about other stuff.

     

    Of course all those 6 people are correct.

     

    Now where is solucky, Logical thought, etc?

     

    I miss those guys. Kind of like JR Ewing on Dallas.

     

    Everyone loved to hate JR.

     

    "Make sure you bring cold, hard, cash", said JR.

     

    "Make sure you bring cold, hard, batteries", said Elon Musk. "No Hydrogen!"
    5 Feb, 01:20 AM Reply Like
  • Surf Dog
    , contributor
    Comments (825) | Send Message
     
    Hydrogen Produced from Fossil Fuels is The Oil industry's play to keep Fossil Fuels relevant. It's going to be a losing proposition. As pointed out above, There are too many negatives.

     

    Hydrogen produced on demand, through Photosynthesis, when it becomes commercially available is the only worthwhile Hydrogen Option.
    5 Feb, 05:13 AM Reply Like
  • Ron Reed
    , contributor
    Comments (282) | Send Message
     
    Um, just where do you think the electricity comes from to power the EV? The same place that Hydrogen will come from, natural gas. The argument to that is renewable sources; which is the same argument for hydrogen.

     

    I make no claim either way to which is better, worse, or other. But the idea that FF's are going away is naive, no matter what cars run on directly in the future.
    5 Feb, 07:56 AM Reply Like
  • themodfather360
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    EVs are much easier to charge with solar.
    5 Feb, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • Dan Fichana
    , contributor
    Comments (1870) | Send Message
     
    Ron,
    It is about minimization of fossil fuel needs.
    EVs attack this on multiple fronts. Hydrogen fuel cells do not.
    Hydrogen from natural gas still produces CO2, then there is compression and transport of the hydrogen.

     

    Here's how EVs solve the issue:
    Nighttime power enables more baseload power. Baseload power enables lower fossil fuel consumption.

     

    No gasoline usage and minimization of lubricants

     

    End of life- batteries; possible usage as grid storage that enables more solar storage and load leveling
    5 Feb, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • themodfather360
    , contributor
    Comments (30) | Send Message
     
    FCVs are absolutely and utterly pointless. The key thing to understand here is that they need a battery ANYWAY. Repeat, FCVs have EV components, they need a battery ANYWAY!
    The choice will be between:
    LEAF-type EV
    FCV with LEAF-sized battery, build hydrogen stations, pay for hydrogen
    200-mile EV
    Once battery production rises and cost falls, and 200-mile battery costs $6000 and lasts 300,000 miles, there will be NO reason to go FCV.
    The sad thing is, Toyota has the manufacturing capacity to build millions upon millions of these inferior FCVs. Even if the next Tesla EV is the best car in the history of mankind, they can only build so many every year..
    5 Feb, 07:33 AM Reply Like
  • John Bingham
    , contributor
    Comments (848) | Send Message
     
    Don't worry, modfather,

     

    By the time Toyota and the other HFCV manufacturers have an actual cheap, safe, working vehicle on the road, along with its filling stations, Tesla will have ramped up on the Gen 3 platform and superchargers and the whole crazy fool cell idea will be dead in the water.
    5 Feb, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • Cassina Tarsia
    , contributor
    Comments (641) | Send Message
     
    You can thank Tesla for this one ... the other manufacturers are scared silly of the affect that Tesla is having upon the consciousness of people and what they are wanting and forcing them to do ... electric is "in" now, so the manufacturers are having to scramble just to pull something - anything - out of their hat as fast as they can. It will be interesting to see what happens in the future ... but in any case, it looks as if Elon has been successful in moving us into the electric age of transport, which was the reason that he started Tesla!
    5 Feb, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • azgog
    , contributor
    Comments (161) | Send Message
     
    Surely Toyota is aware of the problems with hydrogen and has noticed Tesla's success with batteries in the here and now. Is it possible that the hydrogen balloon is a smokescreen while behind the scene they desperately try to engineer a competitive 200 mile EV?
    5 Feb, 12:20 PM Reply Like
  • Dan Fichana
    , contributor
    Comments (1870) | Send Message
     
    Don't think so. Toyota has alot of money invested in fuel cell technology. It's a cultural thing too; admitting a failure of this magnititude is tough to swallow.

     

    Look at what happened when the virtual boy failed in Nintendo, they essentially booted out the guy who made nintendo great.

     

    Toyota is really no interested in EVs at all, hence why the plug in Prius has such a poor range (in all honesty the plug in prius was handed to them, yet they decided to cut the range in half)
    5 Feb, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • gen3
    , contributor
    Comments (296) | Send Message
     
    TOYOTA also spends money on showing cars at shows that are like giant TVs with changing body art. It is all a con !
    5 Feb, 04:48 PM Reply Like
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