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3D Systems crashes on earnings warning; peers also tumble

  • Citing gross margin pressure stemming from an unfavorable mix, along with heavy spending, 3D Systems (DDD -27.4%) now expects to report 2013 EPS of $0.83-$0.87, below prior guidance of $0.93-$1.03 and a $0.96 consensus. Revenue is expected to be in a range of $513M-$514M, in-line with guidance of $500M-$530M but slightly below a $514.2M consensus.
  • 3D's full-year guidance implies Q4 EPS of just $0.16-$0.20, far below a $0.30 consensus.
  • The company also now expects 2014 revenue of $680M-$720M and EPS of $0.73-$0.85. While the former is above a $671.3M consensus, the latter is below a $1.27 consensus.
  • Whereas 3D's gross margin rose 80 bps Y/Y in Q3, it's expected to be down slightly in Q4.
  • With the company carrying steep multiples going into today, 3D Systems investors aren't taking the news well. Neither are investors in peers Stratasys (SSYS -12.3%), ExOne (XONE -13.7%), and Voxeljet (VJET -10.1%).
  • Other companies occasionally hyped as 3D printing plays are also off sharply: PRLB -6.2%. PRCP -10.7%. CIMT -6.3%.
  • 3D's full Q4 results are due on Feb. 28.
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Comments (32)
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (8899) | Send Message
     
    Finally, bubble stocks DDD and SSYS may come down to their fair valuation of around $30. Sustaining a business on printing more shares is not working forever. For additive fabrication stocks, better invest in Arcam AB or Voxeljet AG as these are proper businesses, not running on unobtanium and wishalloy as DDD and SSYS.
    5 Feb, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • Dmitry Kovalchuk
    , contributor
    Comments (324) | Send Message
     
    This is long overdue anyway.
    5 Feb, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • Stymie67
    , contributor
    Comments (178) | Send Message
     
    Voxeljet a more "proper" business than DDD? Are you kidding?
    DDD has the most solid business of the lot. Doesn't mean the stock wasn't way overvalued though. The whole space is.
    5 Feb, 10:51 AM Reply Like
  • Andreas Hopf
    , contributor
    Comments (8899) | Send Message
     
    Voxeljet AG is not built by a loose cannon CEO with more and more obscure marketing shenanigans. Also Voxeljet is not engaged in 2D printing like 3D Systems that prints shares for their haphazard buying spree of ill-fitting companies.

     

    DDD is a suitable trading vehicle for, well, traders and gamblers, but it is not a sound long-term business.
    5 Feb, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • ericmcarter
    , contributor
    Comments (188) | Send Message
     
    To all the bullish analysts on the space... I would like an omelet for breakfast. Can I have some of that egg off your face?
    5 Feb, 09:58 AM Reply Like
  • Transcripts&10-K's
    , contributor
    Comments (767) | Send Message
     
    Pop
    5 Feb, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • Stymie67
    , contributor
    Comments (178) | Send Message
     
    Its still up over 80% over the last 1 year. That's good enough for me for now. I guess if you are a short-order cook and looking over a Q timeframe etc you can make your omelet, otherwise I think the "bullish" case for 3D is a longer-term thesis. I thought the major pullback would have happened sooner actually. If anyone though this stock and others in the space could maintain the 2013 run they were very optimistic to say the least.

     

    Personally I like the 2020 timeframe and once the broader market pullback reverses, whenever that is, will be buying more DDD.
    5 Feb, 11:04 AM Reply Like
  • Transcripts&10-K's
    , contributor
    Comments (767) | Send Message
     
    Google Finance shows +48%, but I hear your point; care to make a venture as to 2020 earnings and revenues, plus or minus 20% or so, and a justification for those figures? If the company is trading at 20-25X earnings at that point on your estimates (just to throw out a reasonable number), what kind of 6-year annualized returns are you looking at? If you can answer those questions I would be very interested in that information - thanks!
    5 Feb, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • Transcripts&10-K's
    , contributor
    Comments (767) | Send Message
     
    No response Stymie?
    6 Feb, 07:55 AM Reply Like
  • Esekla
    , contributor
    Comments (3125) | Send Message
     
    I've been warning about DDD, in particular for a while now. I think XONE is a different story:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    but it will clearly take the market quite some time to realize that.
    5 Feb, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • charles pierce
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    dont know where the EPS of .20 came from, it does not align with the press release. company is saying they are focusing on driving growth, forecast is 32% to 40% revenue growth in 2014 and earnings about flat. to me this appears to be a strong over reaction and potential opportunity to buy. if anyone is in this stock for this quarter earnings they shouldnt be in it. People should keep in mind that this is a real company making highly innovative, disruptive products, and making money doing it. So, strong revenue growth, decent earnings while investing for continued innovation and growth, leading edge for the economy.....doesnt sound like a disaster to me
    5 Feb, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • BabalouieToo
    , contributor
    Comments (14) | Send Message
     
    Great opportunity to add more DDD and VJET! Thanks for all you're shares sellers!
    5 Feb, 10:12 AM Reply Like
  • Chris Lau
    , contributor
    Comments (1935) | Send Message
     
    It's quite simple: "Risk off." QE ending. Weakness into December, along with the rush to the exits in EMEA will hurt (DDD) and 3D Plays. Watch solar, pharmas, and basic materials (especially iron ore, copper) to correct sharply.
    5 Feb, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • mrhankey
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    I can hardly see copper, iron ore prices correcting. Prices are at their relative lows. Could you explain your analysis?
    5 Feb, 01:00 PM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (2694) | Send Message
     
    China where copper is heavily used as collateral for leveraged financial deals not much different from the paper PM markets . then again if cash starts to flow back into commodity space those can take off in a hurry.
    6 Feb, 04:05 AM Reply Like
  • jppoczatek
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    DDD will come back in share price this year, it is just an overreaction which makes for a great buy again! All those that sold will buy back before the end of the second Qtr, so buy now if your long.
    5 Feb, 10:37 AM Reply Like
  • 3D Printing Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (450) | Send Message
     
    Adding CIMT here. It has the fundamentals to support share price.
    5 Feb, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • Ol Blue Eyes
    , contributor
    Comments (1021) | Send Message
     
    These stocks had been trading on irrational exuberance. It looks like there is a revolutionary technology out there that will make a lot of owners and investors rich, but investors were not bidding up the prices higher and higher based on valuation. It has been a case of having to buy now or to suffer the calamity of being "left behind." "If I wait another two months to research these stocks and find the right valuation to get it on, I'll have to pay $90 a share instead of $60."

     

    So now the irrational exuberance period is ending and when these shares begin to rise again it will be because their valuation is somewhere within shouting distance of what it should be.
    5 Feb, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Mike Spelman
    , contributor
    Comments (66) | Send Message
     
    I bet most of the people calling DDD or SSYS overpriced own FB and TWTR
    5 Feb, 11:06 AM Reply Like
  • Dmitry Kovalchuk
    , contributor
    Comments (324) | Send Message
     
    I assume people calling DDD overpriced also shorted TWTR. At least thats what I did...
    6 Feb, 04:27 AM Reply Like
  • fafatooey
    , contributor
    Comments (386) | Send Message
     
    I shorting this pig.
    5 Feb, 11:47 AM Reply Like
  • Raymond Wiacek
    , contributor
    Comments (49) | Send Message
     
    Last time I checked the P/E was somewhere around 140, any longs have to be kidding me to own this.
    5 Feb, 11:51 AM Reply Like
  • greencharlie
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    ideal moment to buy in
    5 Feb, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • jvallancourt@aol.com
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Andreas, What's your read for Arcam long?
    5 Feb, 01:37 PM Reply Like
  • gordon gecko13
    , contributor
    Comments (8) | Send Message
     
    made a daytrade in at 56 out at 61. should've stayed longer...oh we'll....
    5 Feb, 02:14 PM Reply Like
  • yesithinkiam
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    I sold DDD a few weeks ago because of concerns that the company had, at least for the moment, lost focus. They've gotten giddy, feeling too big to fail, and started hiring clowns and professional meeting crashers from government. Duh. Of course their costs are outstripping revenue growth. That's no way to run a business.
    5 Feb, 02:16 PM Reply Like
  • Dmitry Kovalchuk
    , contributor
    Comments (324) | Send Message
     
    Very valid point! Now go short and earn some on the way down
    5 Feb, 02:27 PM Reply Like
  • stockfan1
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    DDD had a low of $55 today. Looks like more lows to come.
    5 Feb, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • WallStreetDebunker
    , contributor
    Comments (2531) | Send Message
     
    When the next bear market forces a reality check on speculators, DDD's string of acquisitions at ridiculous prices will be the corporate equivalent of dog poop stuck in the narrow grooves of recently purchased hiking boots.
    5 Feb, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • papayamon
    , contributor
    Comments (1185) | Send Message
     
    an entire industry that's simply way ahead of itself in terms of valuation. a genuine bear market here will be devastating.
    5 Feb, 08:40 PM Reply Like
  • wazel
    , contributor
    Comments (10) | Send Message
     
    Good thing I just dumped most of mine a few weeks ago. Think I'll buy some more at this price.
    5 Feb, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • smallcap sleuth
    , contributor
    Comments (184) | Send Message
     
    Nice to see bulls vs bears, I've no dog in this fight ! Owned SSYS at $26 years ago missed the entire rocket ride, not unhappy at this juncture
    8 Feb, 03:22 AM Reply Like
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