BlackBerry rallies following Jefferies PT hike


Jefferies' Peter Misek has upped his BlackBerry (BBRY +1.9%) PT to $9 from $6, while reiterating a Hold.

Misek, who downgraded shares in September following BlackBerry's big FQ2 warning, says "an in-depth scenario analysis" of six parts of BlackBerry's business yields a base case valuation of $8/share, a bear case of $2/share, and a bull case of $16/share. His new PT represents the probability-weighted average of the three estimates.

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Comments (25)
  • HFI
    , contributor
    Comments (1555) | Send Message
     
    I hate to say it, but I warned the bulls on how idiotic of an analyst Peter Misek is.

     

    My opinion of him has not changed whatsoever.
    5 Feb 2014, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • Thurai sivakumaran
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    Same from me as Wilson.
    5 Feb 2014, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Stock Jackal
    , contributor
    Comments (545) | Send Message
     
    A $2 to $16 range? That's worse than a weatherman for a guess.
    5 Feb 2014, 03:09 PM Reply Like
  • john001
    , contributor
    Comments (1190) | Send Message
     
    I doubt even a drunk bear would dream on $2.00 for blackberry, or an elated bull of $16 for that matter. This kind of analysis just confirms the old adage "Analyst's estimates are written with a light-weight pencil and a big eraser".
    5 Feb 2014, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Cliff Hilton
    , contributor
    Comments (2704) | Send Message
     
    Is this serious analysis? A fortune can be had or lost with that much rope.

     

    BlackBerry is a speculative stock. Hence the SP range.
    5 Feb 2014, 04:15 PM Reply Like
  • jjtom
    , contributor
    Comments (443) | Send Message
     
    well lets say $9 is more realistic, but i wouldn't be surprised if BBRY continues to perform even better. At least BB has done a major update to their BB10 OS, while we get APPL with the latest report resuming production and trying to con People in India into buying their Iphone 4S as a substitute for a low end phone. Amazing Apple can get away with selling a 4 year old phone with an outdated OS as a subsitute for a low end phone while BB gets bashed if they tried to pull the same stunt SMH! At least BB will have a new low end phone for emerging markets running on BB10.2.1 OS the latest and greatest from BB. How ever knowing Iphone Zombies they will buy the 4 year old phone and think its the best phone on the planet!
    5 Feb 2014, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • jjtom
    , contributor
    Comments (443) | Send Message
     
    I always said it, part of the problems BB was having was constant negative articles and idiotic analysts giving bad advice.
    5 Feb 2014, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • fatt
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    In this world if one falls into the well a stone normally cast in the well, but if you are successfull every one will praise you. This is what has happened, some other day if Apple repeat its own history, Apple has to remember BB. Also most analysts are like fortune teller.
    5 Feb 2014, 08:08 PM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13109) | Send Message
     
    Huh?
    5 Feb 2014, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • seekingthetrooth
    , contributor
    Comments (854) | Send Message
     
    English is definitely not your first language. I'm sure this transliteration would make a lot more sense in Mandarin (I guess)
    5 Feb 2014, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • dougiann
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    And in the same report, Misek thinks Apple SP could be anywhere from a bearish $40 to a bullish $1200. What a clown.
    5 Feb 2014, 08:15 PM Reply Like
  • mikebator
    , contributor
    Comments (1867) | Send Message
     
    I loved the 4s, 4 years ago. I said it once before Apple is gasping on an old iOS period. Think 2009 ish bbOS til now. BlackBerry 10 may become the new OS of choice as more people see and experience the phones. Reviews are great and top ratings on carrier sites. The OS is now a year old and it's now after all the updates and new features actually in that time has lead the OS innovative curve with others trying to copy hub, main settings swipe and oh ya Apple finally hit where BlackBerry PlayBook was in 2010 with multitasking, where will BlackBerry 10 be as its light years ahead in that already with the active tile and gestures. Time will tell.
    5 Feb 2014, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • hz06
    , contributor
    Comments (1577) | Send Message
     
    this year BB10 can run Android apps (natively), i am guessing some time next year, BB10 can run iOS apps...
    5 Feb 2014, 11:00 PM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13109) | Send Message
     
    "this year BB10 can run Android apps (natively)"

     

    Um, no it can't. Android apps are run in an emulator running on top of BB10 inside the "personal space"

     

    And no, BlackBerry will never run IOS apps legally - Apple would swoop down and crush BlackBerry.
    Remember; iOS apps are DRM protected and locked to the device. For Blackberry to run them in an emulator, they would need to spoof the device and thwart the DRM whereby breaking Apple's Terms Of Service. http://bit.ly/1g44Jav

     

    Here's just a tiny taste of Apple's Rath:

     

    "You agree that the iTunes Service and certain iTunes Products include security technology that limits your use of iTunes Products and that, whether or not iTunes Products are limited by security technology, you shall use iTunes Products in compliance with the applicable usage rules established by Apple and its licensors (“Usage Rules”), and that any other use of the iTunes Products may constitute a copyright infringement. Any security technology is an inseparable part of the iTunes Products. Apple reserves the right to modify the Usage Rules at any time. You agree not to violate, circumvent, reverse-engineer, decompile, disassemble, or otherwise tamper with any of the security technology related to such Usage Rules for any reason—or to attempt or assist another person to do so. Usage Rules may be controlled and monitored by Apple for compliance purposes, and Apple reserves the right to enforce the Usage Rules without notice to you."
    5 Feb 2014, 11:33 PM Reply Like
  • hz06
    , contributor
    Comments (1577) | Send Message
     
    @kia - Android apps run on BB10 without any other steps of end user manipulation, and BB10 is a whole bunch "servers" (i call them "modules") on top of a QNX kernel, the emulator is one of those "modules", that's what i mean natively (to BB10).

     

    technically, on Android, the apps run on a VM, which is less efficient than the BB10 emulator, in that sense, BB10 is a better platform for Android apps.

     

    in order to run iOS apps, BlackBerry can build another BB10 module, an "iOS" emulator, for the iOS apps. That has nothing to do with Apple license. (for any language, you can't patent the APIs.)
    5 Feb 2014, 11:56 PM Reply Like
  • vijitc
    , contributor
    Comments (99) | Send Message
     
    Yes true. Android runs their apps on top of Android in a VM. It is the Dalvic VM. They are experimenting with a new VM in Kitkat called ART which is more efficient than Dalvic. BlackBerry also uses Dalvic, so essentially android and bb10 aren't doing things that much differently when running android apps. The problem was in earlier versions of bb10 there were Linux system calls being made that prevented Apk files from being run directly, but some clever engineers managed to overcome that. I for one really commend the guys at BlackBerry for making this happen. As far as Apple apps I don't see how it is really possible but does it matter? I mean android users seem to get by nicely without having access to ios apps. For me the real missing element is Google services. That again is a licensing issue and hopefully they can work something out with google.
    6 Feb 2014, 05:22 AM Reply Like
  • Patrick Collar
    , contributor
    Comments (292) | Send Message
     
    You are not wrong in what you posted, but you should think through the whole argument in practical terms. How would Apple police and enforce the agreement against its users? Would BB be at risk for creating an OS that is capable? Or would it be each user for porting / buying Apple apps and running them on a 3rd party device. I think it would be the users who would be liable, right? So would Apple go after its customers?
    6 Feb 2014, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (13109) | Send Message
     
    The Dalvik VM has a Just-In-Time Compiler (JIT) which converts byte code to *native* machine code. http://tinyurl.com/2ud...
    In order to argue the BB10 devices run Android apps *natively* you would need to prove (or at least find a hint) that BlackBerry had written or otherwise obtained a JIT fore both the OMAP , and Snapdragon MSM8960 processors used in the BB10 phones.
    If they do not JIT, then they are not running native code and instead running the byte-code on the VM. (Not a terrible thing, just trying to be correct here.)

     

    As far as IOS is concerned, the infringement would likely come from several directions.
    1. you would need create your own FairPlay DRM engine for the BB10 device on which iOS apps depend. This is likely to be direct copyright infringement and targeted directly at BlackBerry.
    I suppose BlackBerry could stub out all the calls whereby turning off much of the app security. However stubbing out the DRM puts you in violation of the Apple TOS "you shall use iTunes Products in compliance with the applicable usage rules established by Apple and its licensors (“Usage Rules”), and that any other use of the iTunes Products may constitute a copyright infringement. "
    2. Next, apps must use a valid Apple Account to connect to the Apple App store. You cannot have a gateway app like Snap on Google Play without breaking the terms of service. " You agree not to violate, circumvent, reverse-engineer, decompile, disassemble, or otherwise tamper with any of the security technology"
    3. Remember: "Usage Rules may be controlled and monitored by Apple for compliance purposes"

     

    This is nowhere near a complete list of legal issues and enormous difficulties in getting iOS apps on BlackBerry.
    Any way; suffice it to say, never in a million years without Apples express written permission.
    6 Feb 2014, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • hz06
    , contributor
    Comments (1577) | Send Message
     
    @kia - VMware's first VM product took less than a year and a half, and less than 20 people to build and launch. building an iOS emulator, a VM essentially, on top of BB10's own OS code, how long would that take? not much imo.

     

    Adobe has a tool (Adobe AIR) to compile same source code into 3 versions of same app, iOS, Android, and BlackBerry Tablet OS, and Windows PC, and Mac. write once, run on "everywhere".

     

    building compatibility between OS' is getting easier and easier nowadays. and once html5 gets mature, then compatibility becomes de facto. but html5 is too far away for BB's turnaround... :)

     

    one more word about "native". between you and me two software engineers, i should probably stick to its strict computer science meaning, as in "native code". but this is an investor forum, so "running on BB10 natively" is close enough to what i mean, Mr Blair probably put it in a more accurate way, "directly".

     

    and by the way, looks like you got lot of time to read and post. are you in bay area? i want to apply for a job in your company :) i am working for a startup, it's impossible to read and post on SA during the day...
    7 Feb 2014, 01:25 AM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (3108) | Send Message
     
    Misek is gun-shy to go any higher than $9 because of how much he was mistaken last year at this time preaching BBRY was worth a lot. He was a huge fan.

     

    Deep down he knows that the company is sitting on a gold mine the size of Smaug's as QNX begins to flex its muscles.

     

    I predict checkmate on iOS and Android in 3-5 years.
    5 Feb 2014, 08:18 PM Reply Like
  • seekingthetrooth
    , contributor
    Comments (854) | Send Message
     
    Smaug's net-worth is estimated at roughly USD 54 billion, 11x BB...significantly dwarfing BB's. John Chen would need to do way better than Oz to convince the world BB is worth that much.
    6 Feb 2014, 04:33 AM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (3108) | Send Message
     
    A lot can and will change over time!
    6 Feb 2014, 06:54 AM Reply Like
  • hz06
    , contributor
    Comments (1577) | Send Message
     
    (currently stock price is $9.70), so the stock can fluctuate from $2 to $16. and?

     

    :)))))))))
    5 Feb 2014, 08:39 PM Reply Like
  • seekingthetrooth
    , contributor
    Comments (854) | Send Message
     
    The range from $2 to $16 with each scenario given equal probability weights makes absolutely no sense. Are analysts in the business of going blind all-in Texas Hold'em?

     

    In contrast CIBC gives a reasonable assessment.
    5 Feb 2014, 10:18 PM Reply Like
  • jjtom
    , contributor
    Comments (443) | Send Message
     
    OMG BB stock up again today almost 3% this is three days in a row., the stock went up. No wonder BB stock is the best performing stock of 2014! It's out performing even Nokia stock despite all the hype! Alll you short sellers for God sake cover now before it's to late ar you may lose your "shorts" LOL.
    6 Feb 2014, 09:13 PM Reply Like
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