Seeking Alpha

U.S. payrolls up 113K, unemployment rate at 6.6%

  • January Nonfarm Payrolls: +113K vs. consensus +181K, +75K previous (revised from 74K).
  • Unemployment rate 6.6% vs. 6.7% consensus, 6.7% previous.
Comments (38)
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9302) | Send Message
     
    Good numbers...better than the headlines....
    7 Feb, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9302) | Send Message
     
    All 4 leading indicators inside the payroll numbers are positive
    7 Feb, 08:47 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9302) | Send Message
     
    Big drop in part time for economic reasons
    7 Feb, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • Papaswamp
    , contributor
    Comments (2178) | Send Message
     
    The number of unemployed rose by almost 900,000 M/M ( NSA) and participation rate degraded again. Just because people are no longer counted doesn't make it a pretty picture.
    7 Feb, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9302) | Send Message
     
    Again... a recession means lower profits means destructive portfolio losses,,,,there is no
    recession in sight...the website is called Seeking Alpha...
    7 Feb, 09:01 AM Reply Like
  • Matthew Davis
    , contributor
    Comments (3666) | Send Message
     
    Bbro

     

    Whatever you are smoking, pass it over. Did you read or listen to anything? All... ALL indicators are way off, and last report was barely revised at all. Only in this bizarre government can reduce the UE rate by not counting people.
    7 Feb, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9302) | Send Message
     
    Excellent...I would prefer you think I was wrong....
    7 Feb, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • Matthew Davis
    , contributor
    Comments (3666) | Send Message
     
    "In January, 2.6 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, little changed from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey."

     

    Directly from the report.
    7 Feb, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9302) | Send Message
     
    Construction payrolls to Nonfarm payrolls ratio hit a 4 year high....
    7 Feb, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • Matthew Davis
    , contributor
    Comments (3666) | Send Message
     
    bbro

     

    a 4 year high from a 50 year low, wow what an accomplishment. Put the koolaid down please.
    7 Feb, 09:48 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9302) | Send Message
     
    Well then.... sell Mortimer sell
    7 Feb, 09:55 AM Reply Like
  • sa_member_F5 Key
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    Matt D., yeah I agree, the jobs number is terrible, while gov goons pump the UE numbers down. Here is the explanation between the two:

     

    The unemployment rate is calculated using a separate survey of households, which sometimes doesn’t match up with the payroll job counts that come from a survey of employers. Based on the household survey, the employment picture for January looked considerably brighter. Unlike previous months, workers did not drop out of the labor force in January, according to this survey.

     

    http://lat.ms/1gaty4w
    7 Feb, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • dnorm1234
    , contributor
    Comments (813) | Send Message
     
    >a 4 year high from a 50 year low, wow what an accomplishment.

     

    How can we ever get back to where we were, and beyond, if you don't consider each intermediate step as important?

     

    There's a difference between "recovering" and "totally recovered and booming"; who is claiming the latter?
    7 Feb, 10:42 AM Reply Like
  • YONSU
    , contributor
    Comments (161) | Send Message
     
    Just as a matter of condition, 1999 it took 250,000 new workers to move the unemployment number .1 funny how government and markets change. BTW does anyone believe the number the gov. supplies anymore?
    7 Feb, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • CerpherJoe
    , contributor
    Comments (32) | Send Message
     
    Bbro: "Construction payrolls to Nonfarm payrolls ratio hit a 4 year high.... "

     

    It's due to the denominator
    7 Feb, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Petrarch
    , contributor
    Comments (629) | Send Message
     
    turn those machines back on...turn those machines back on
    P
    7 Feb, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • quabbin
    , contributor
    Comments (118) | Send Message
     
    That ratio means nothing bbro....
    7 Feb, 04:31 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9302) | Send Message
     
    You've done a study of the Construction Payrolls to Nonfarm Payrolls ratio and its predictiveness of recessions?
    7 Feb, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • quabbin
    , contributor
    Comments (118) | Send Message
     
    Yes.
    7 Feb, 04:59 PM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (9302) | Send Message
     
    Then you can tell me the recession it failed to predict
    7 Feb, 06:31 PM Reply Like
  • SoCalNative
    , contributor
    Comments (423) | Send Message
     
    Mortimer, you're brother isn't well...

     

    F*ck him!
    9 Feb, 01:22 AM Reply Like
  • Ohrama
    , contributor
    Comments (504) | Send Message
     
    Good, at this rate we will have zero unemployment rate even if the jobs added are dismal. I suppose all of us ultimately will be in the government dole!
    7 Feb, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (2492) | Send Message
     
    These guys can really count can't they.Big miss for Jan to go with a +74K revision to last months big miss number . They could just wait till/if they get it right.
    7 Feb, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • dpuruczky
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Payrolls much weaker than expected.
    7 Feb, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12704) | Send Message
     
    Once again, the economy is controlled by the spending behavior of those with jobs and wealth, not the minute changes at the employment margin. Pay attention to what enfranchised people do, not the disenfranchised.
    7 Feb, 09:06 AM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12704) | Send Message
     
    CNN web site has WWIII-size headlines, "Jobs Report Disappoints" "Futures turn lower."

     

    Is it any wonder why the average guy, reading headlines, never makes any money?
    7 Feb, 09:22 AM Reply Like
  • quabbin
    , contributor
    Comments (118) | Send Message
     
    Make money how Tack?
    From a weekly paycheck or from investments?
    There are many "avergage guys" who would be very happy to get full time employment and could give a shit about the market.
    Do you even associate with any of us average guys?
    7 Feb, 04:40 PM Reply Like
  • JohnBinTN
    , contributor
    Comments (3573) | Send Message
     
    From his comment, he was clearly referencing "averages guys" that are investing money in the stock market.
    7 Feb, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Tack
    , contributor
    Comments (12704) | Send Message
     
    q:

     

    If you don't care about the markets, and want to stay employed, too, perhaps you should not spend time on SA fruitlessly.
    7 Feb, 08:58 PM Reply Like
  • James Bjorkman
    , contributor
    Comments (568) | Send Message
     
    Payrolls up less than 200k in the past two months? This is GOOD? Man, some of you are smoking something strong.
    7 Feb, 10:06 AM Reply Like
  • vermithrax
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    Perhaps it makes the masses 'happy to have a job at all' and thus not press for wage increases.
    7 Feb, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • permanent
    , contributor
    Comments (114) | Send Message
     
    I don´t see anything good about this number. Well you could come up with the weather excuse. For the markets it may be positive because of fading tapering fears.
    7 Feb, 10:09 AM Reply Like
  • James Bjorkman
    , contributor
    Comments (568) | Send Message
     
    It's good in a statistical sense only - fewer unemployed people are counted, thus, the unemployment figure drops. This just proves the enduring wisdom of Mr. Twain.
    7 Feb, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Brian Dightman
    , contributor
    Comments (81) | Send Message
     
    The economic numbers don't matter as much in the financial crisis recovery. As long as economic numbers are improving (moving in the right direction on average), things are getting better (however muted this recovery is). When economic numbers have looked like they might reverse the Fed has come to the rescue; even a trend of bad numbers look good to the MARKET because it expects a fresh round of QE. We may be in the final innings of the QE driven market or maybe finally economic growth starts to accelerate. I am not holding my breath but cheap energy may be a bigger factor than many realize and the potential for Keystone could provide another leg up. What you can do in the meantime is invest in a less risky manner that your normal risk tolerance would dictate (too avoid disaster if the market conditions deteriorate quickly) and prepare to make defensive moves when the MARKET trend looks to like it is entering a medium to long-term downtrend. How the MARKET recovers from the current pullback is the near-term key.
    7 Feb, 10:25 AM Reply Like
  • Angel Martin
    , contributor
    Comments (1291) | Send Message
     
    household survey employment is up 600+ and up a million jobs since sept

     

    the indicators currently suggesting slowdown are trade and imports
    7 Feb, 10:28 AM Reply Like
  • convoluted
    , contributor
    Comments (1820) | Send Message
     
    Like it or not, we live in an altered universe. Technology, globalization and cultural shifts make today's economic landscape vastly different from the past. Just look at the profound changes within the last twenty years.
    Most people alive today don't even have a frame of reference to understand or appreciate the changing dynamics. For those over 50 (an arbitrary reference point), there is a clash between 'what used to be' and where we are now. By the standards of the 1960's or 1970's this 'recovery' would be a joke. Voters would be casting out politicians by the truck load. But, it's not 1968 anymore, and 'it's a sign of the times' that millions remain on some form of central government subsidy. Thus, the interpretation of financial reports are increasingly seen, and acted upon, by those that have come of age within the time of these enormous changes. Judged by a younger court, the employment report is 'acceptable.' If you want to make money in this world, you can't insist that we go back to 'the way we were.'
    7 Feb, 10:57 AM Reply Like
  • Adam Galas
    , contributor
    Comments (320) | Send Message
     
    To keep up with population growth we need 300,000 jobs created in the last 2 months, that's to stand still. In order to truly bring relief and long term economic growth we need to increase the labor participation rate, we needed 200,000/month or more, or 400,000 over the last 2 months. We got half that, which is pathetic given that 6 weeks ago markets were at all time highs.

     

    GDP numbers are expected at 4% this quarter but I'd be flabbergasted if they were above 2%, the way job creation has been going.
    7 Feb, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (2492) | Send Message
     
    The household survey on the other hand reported a 638K increase in over age of 16 employment making all the numbers they report seem comical. What is certain is CBs, for different reasons, will continue tapering across the globe volatility will be the norm appropriate given ridiculous gaps in numbers they report from month to month
    8 Feb, 06:55 AM Reply Like
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