Seeking Alpha

Tesla Motors knocking on $200-per-share door

  • Shares of Tesla Motors (TSLA +5.8%) set a new record at $199.30 in intraday trading as more bullish bets come pouring in.
  • Call action today is 55% above normal activity.
  • There isn't any concrete news of note on Tesla, today's strength is based on a large part on momentum.
From other sites
Comments (43)
  • Mark Krieger
    , contributor
    Comments (4675) | Send Message
     
    chasing the momo stock to new highs...a very dangerous proposition for these gamblers
    10 Feb 2014, 03:10 PM Reply Like
  • EarlyMorningTrader
    , contributor
    Comments (88) | Send Message
     
    But it's not a stock. It's the future.
    10 Feb 2014, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • Atkins
    , contributor
    Comments (1046) | Send Message
     
    Looks like those of us who own Apple will be left in the Tesla dust. What a market...
    10 Feb 2014, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • Placebo Investment Advice
    , contributor
    Comments (3498) | Send Message
     
    But it's not just the future. It's the God particle in the shape of a car.
    10 Feb 2014, 04:06 PM Reply Like
  • joenjensen
    , contributor
    Comments (708) | Send Message
     
    You speak as though your not gambling shorting tsla, It has been even worse for all you shorters,....LOL
    12 Feb 2014, 12:07 AM Reply Like
  • Esekla
    , contributor
    Comments (3819) | Send Message
     
    Heh, there is always news on Tesla, but concrete? That's the stuff their batteries become, as commented here:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    The latest is that there are 9,555 pre-orders http://bit.ly/17LzvjY for the Model X. I have to admit, that's a lot... for Tesla.
    10 Feb 2014, 03:20 PM Reply Like
  • surferbroadband
    , contributor
    Comments (3114) | Send Message
     
    Sal Demir's article, is coming true.

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    You are an investor, read this article. Especially if you want to trade in TSLA.
    10 Feb 2014, 03:28 PM Reply Like
  • Kiwi_Guy
    , contributor
    Comments (166) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for that! Sal's article is a great read and was very prescient back in June.

     

    The comments are also enjoyable, especially with @Logical Thought and @tomfrompv slogging away pushing the bear case. TSLA was $110 at that stage and on it's way to $190+ ( you have to hand it to their staying power that they are still here and still on message!).
    10 Feb 2014, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • nwdiver
    , contributor
    Comments (411) | Send Message
     
    It's called Cognitive Dissonance.
    11 Feb 2014, 12:25 AM Reply Like
  • John Cusack's Pancreas
    , contributor
    Comments (44) | Send Message
     
    I'm anxious to own TSLA but by all measurements this price is so far out of whack I wouldn't get near it. Love the car company and even visited the nearest boutique but until they get the Model X revenues coming in I absolutely won't be a buyer.
    10 Feb 2014, 03:33 PM Reply Like
  • surferbroadband
    , contributor
    Comments (3114) | Send Message
     
    And you will miss the party. Sorry to hear that.
    10 Feb 2014, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Sellinpanic
    , contributor
    Comments (698) | Send Message
     
    @John C,

     

    Do you mean the car or the stock or both you want to own? Well, if you keep thinking that the price is too steep you'll miss both. Get a position and don't think about it for next 4-5 years, you have to buy it for long term as I have done. Everybody wants a piece of the action with TSLA, get in or stop saying I want to get in, you are either in or out and definitely not short.
    11 Feb 2014, 10:34 AM Reply Like
  • joeinslw@gmail.com
    , contributor
    Comments (800) | Send Message
     
    Well John, then you will be a looser. Don't you know or haven't you learned that the market runs AHEAD of a companies good fortune, if you wait for the Model X profits to hit the scene, you will definitely be late for it, but not everybody understands that !
    27 Feb 2014, 10:50 AM Reply Like
  • Cassina Tarsia
    , contributor
    Comments (666) | Send Message
     
    Possibly the reason for the sharp spike in prices are three-fold - first the Oslo interview which just went public - http://bit.ly/1cPpFmN , and the Townhall meeting in Amsterdam the day before the interview - http://bit.ly/MG27qc . And today, Green Car Reports summarized this new information which came out of the Oslo interview - http://bit.ly/MG26m9
    10 Feb 2014, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • David at Imperial Beach
    , contributor
    Comments (4359) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for these links. I always love to hear the latest Musk interviews.
    10 Feb 2014, 07:06 PM Reply Like
  • chickensevil
    , contributor
    Comments (743) | Send Message
     
    I believe the "news" which has been missed here, is that China is upping their EV subsidy (which impacts Kandi (KNDI) and TSLA). I can't seem to locate the full details but that is why the stock shot up ridiculously high today.

     

    Unfortunately, I was a little late to this party... I thought I would have more time in the 180s to get more, damn... we had better get quite the earnings beat if we want to expect this momentum to continue. But I think we are setting up for a repeat of last year.

     

    First they announce the 6900 number.
    Now China mentions the increased subsidy (think subsidies don't help, go look at Norway)
    Next week we are getting the earnings (some people are anticipating as high as .30 EPS non-GAAP).
    Then shortly they will be also pushing out the Beta for the model X.

     

    Going to be a busy spring/summer for Tesla!
    10 Feb 2014, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • chickensevil
    , contributor
    Comments (743) | Send Message
     
    Further research seems to indicate that while the Chinese news is being spun as positive for TSLA, it may in fact be negative, since I do not believe they were going to qualify for the subsidies in the first place. Meaning this is only going to help their competitors sell their vehicles better because of the subsidy.

     

    But the market sure did take it as a positive (hence the huge jump around 12pm)
    10 Feb 2014, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Stephen Pace
    , contributor
    Comments (558) | Send Message
     
    @chickensevil: If you Telsa is going after the same market as Kandi and BYD you must not follow Tesla very closely. Subsidies aren't going to make that much of a difference for Tesla in the short term given the price point and who is buying the cars in China, especially with the recently announced pricing. The biggest benefit for the initial owners will be the license plate that lets them drive into town.
    10 Feb 2014, 06:16 PM Reply Like
  • SharkDude
    , contributor
    Comments (735) | Send Message
     
    Did they sell 5 more cars than expected this week?
    10 Feb 2014, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Krieger
    , contributor
    Comments (4675) | Send Message
     
    no...they sold 6 more
    10 Feb 2014, 03:52 PM Reply Like
  • chfp
    , contributor
    Comments (595) | Send Message
     
    Now you're complaining about increasing sales? I figured you'd be moaning how Tesla's sales are decreasing.
    10 Feb 2014, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • Mark Krieger
    , contributor
    Comments (4675) | Send Message
     
    sharkdude: they didn't sell five more. it was six!
    10 Feb 2014, 09:07 PM Reply Like
  • Silk Hope
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    At the end of 2009 Appl was 195 ps. I believe Elon is the next Steve Jobs. We all know what happened with Appl. My bet is Elon will flawlessly execute his vision and will take us on a long and wild ride. And we will all be fabulously wealthy. Just sayin.
    10 Feb 2014, 04:25 PM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (6086) | Send Message
     
    "today's strength is based on a large part on momentum."

     

    copy-paste for many tech stocks out there...this will not end well. I'm not talking about just TSLA. This is a giant tech sector bubble brewing (TWTR even after the latest small drops, YELP, NFLX etc.)
    10 Feb 2014, 04:27 PM Reply Like
  • omarbradley
    , contributor
    Comments (964) | Send Message
     
    i say "bullshit" to the "no news" meme.
    General Motors got crushed today.
    Since the precedent has already been set to kill the bond holders then obviously Ford knows what they're dealing...and will wipe the entire industry off the Planet in order to protect their bondholders.
    And no I don't think Toyota is the way to go here either.
    10 Feb 2014, 04:28 PM Reply Like
  • surferbroadband
    , contributor
    Comments (3114) | Send Message
     
    Gen Bradley, you are correct.

     

    Investing in auto stocks, then Tesla is the way to go. A huge shift is about to take place in the auto industry.

     

    Supercharging is what is driving this momentum.

     

    You can drive coast to coast in a Tesla. In 2 years the country will be blanketed.
    10 Feb 2014, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Dan Fichana
    , contributor
    Comments (1921) | Send Message
     
    It's the Kodak/typewriter/word processor moment all over again.

     

    You see it all the time. Those who fail to understand history are doomed to repeat it.

     

    That is the problem, most entrenched players often ignore the new player until it is too late or offer subpar offerings or fight it out with other subpar offerings.

     

    Look at it this way. Who has anything to compete with Tesla at this point that has something definiative in the pipeline to compete?
    10 Feb 2014, 06:53 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Darcy
    , contributor
    Comments (48) | Send Message
     
    The best thing about TSLA is the more they execute, the angrier some people get who aren't even short. They just don't like the company becoming a success in front of their eyes.
    10 Feb 2014, 05:07 PM Reply Like
  • Stephen Pace
    , contributor
    Comments (558) | Send Message
     
    @neurodarcy: I agree. There are still so many people out there that suggest that EVs can never work in the long term and can't understand how Tesla is knocking down argument after argument. I'm especially going to like to hear their cries when the first owner Model S vehicles tick over 100k miles on the original pack and the folks that 8 years on have no issues and just a small amount of mileage reduction.
    10 Feb 2014, 06:20 PM Reply Like
  • nwdiver
    , contributor
    Comments (411) | Send Message
     
    I'm getting close... 31k today NO PROBLEMS... Superchargers are AWESOME :D
    11 Feb 2014, 12:30 AM Reply Like
  • Ryan Mackay
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    What about China giving more subsidies for electric vehicles than previously announced?

     

    http://bloom.bg/MGfk2f
    10 Feb 2014, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Mosbear64
    , contributor
    Comments (164) | Send Message
     
    This is NOT gambling. This is pure math. They will sell 500,000 in 2018 at about $65k per car. This is $32.5 Billion in revenue. Let's cut the current P/S in half and say 6 instead of 12. That equals a $195 Billion market cap or $1,680 per share. Twitter and Facebook are for gamblers - this is a real company with real technology!
    10 Feb 2014, 05:26 PM Reply Like
  • Ashraf Eassa
    , contributor
    Comments (9300) | Send Message
     
    LOL, okay...
    10 Feb 2014, 06:22 PM Reply Like
  • awakeinwa
    , contributor
    Comments (365) | Send Message
     
    precisely - all the short comments presume some simpleton linear growth curve. Right now Tesla is establishing the foundational infrastructure and processes to build cars and SUVs with scalability in mind. At some point, the production growth curve turns parabolic.

     

    Arguments like battery are factor of production constraints discount the insane amount of money chasing batteries driven across a number of industries of which electric cars is one.

     

    Even with existing steady state battery efficiency progression rates, Tesla will beat the pants off ICE cars, especially with supporting technologies like fast charge/slow discharge capacitors that can augment lithium batteries; capacitors are where NAND/SSD drive tech were a few years ago in the PC market.

     

    In a couple years time you will see similar solutions take form en masse. The sky's the limit. There is no other company in recent memory that has executed as flawlessly as Tesla. And for those that discount that, you are welcome to go invest in that Tesla trumping company with the short money you are so confident in
    10 Feb 2014, 09:54 PM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (2575) | Send Message
     
    Tesla only will have competition with the hydrogen fuel cell cars that Toyota recently showcased a prototype.
    10 Feb 2014, 11:48 PM Reply Like
  • Dan Fichana
    , contributor
    Comments (1921) | Send Message
     
    Last time I checked, the FCV are essentially no competition in the US for 99% of the population.

     

    There are 7 fuel cell stations located in the entire US, yes, 7. 6 are located in CA, one in SC. That is a huge problem, how do you sell something to people without a fuel source, at least with Tesla, you can install a 220 V 50 A outlet in your home or businesses installing power outlets at their businesses.

     

    How many businesses, like walgreens, Ikea, walmart or your work would install gas stations or hydrogen stations on their property as a perk?
    11 Feb 2014, 01:51 AM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (6086) | Send Message
     
    A market cap equal to that of Toyota by 2018 (that's just four years from now)?

     

    Toyota sells about 10 milion cars per year and has among the best operating profits in the car industry.

     

    You greatly underestimate investment cap ex and SG&A as TSLA grows in my opinion.
    11 Feb 2014, 06:34 AM Reply Like
  • First1billion
    , contributor
    Comments (100) | Send Message
     
    BMW i3 might be a slight bump in the road. They are offering test drives.
    10 Feb 2014, 06:26 PM Reply Like
  • Dan Fichana
    , contributor
    Comments (1921) | Send Message
     
    The i3 is really an upscale leaf, in both form and function.

     

    I really don't know why Nissan, GM, BMW, and Ford felt compelled to introduce a low priced EV to begin with. That is not how technology introduction and economics work.

     

    You imtroduce a product with lots of features at a high price point and as the technology and manufacturing improves you introduce it at lower and lower price points. That is one of the most well understood and closest thing to a hard and fast economic rule.

     

    TVs, microwaves, radios, computers, cameras, cell phones, fans, shower fixtures, all followed that same trend. Cars are no different. You would not introduce new tech on lower end cars, cd players, remote starters, fuel injection, power windows... Introduce it on higher end cars first.
    10 Feb 2014, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • JMay2
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    What about BYD?
    10 Feb 2014, 10:52 PM Reply Like
  • John Bingham
    , contributor
    Comments (1241) | Send Message
     
    JMay2,

     

    "What about BYD?"

     

    Quality. Reliability. Performance. Sadly lacking in all three. Check out the reviews for the E6. There are several on YouTube. Here's one of them:

     

    http://bit.ly/1ey082r
    11 Feb 2014, 04:36 AM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (6086) | Send Message
     
    BYD is about much more than the e6 in the near future, that car is almost three years old.
    11 Feb 2014, 06:30 AM Reply Like
  • marshgre
    , contributor
    Comments (791) | Send Message
     
    @first1billion

     

    Yes the i3 will be a "slight bump in the road" but it will be no more significant than a wad of gum. Teslas Active Air suspension system will render such bumps unnoticable to investors.

     

    I'm speaking metaphorically of course...
    10 Feb 2014, 11:44 PM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Hub
ETF Screener: Search and filter by asset class, strategy, theme, performance, yield, and much more
ETF Performance: View ETF performance across key asset classes and investing themes
ETF Investing Guide: Learn how to build and manage a well-diversified, low cost ETF portfolio
ETF Selector: An explanation of how to select and use ETFs