Zillow beats by $0.12, beats on revenue


Zillow (Z): Q4 EPS of $0.19 beats by $0.12.

Revenue of $58.3M (+69.8% Y/Y) beats by $2.12M.

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Comments (11)
  • Nigel D'Souza
    , contributor
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    Am I missing something here? The press release states EPS of $0.07 basic and $0.06 diluted?
    12 Feb 2014, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • AnLe41
    , contributor
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    You are right, the GAAP EPS was $0.07 and $0.06 respectively, which was the measure where Wall St consensus expectation was $0.07 and Estimize had an expectation of $0.08.

     

    The non-GAAP EPS was $0.20 and $0.19 respectively, but non-GAAP numbers were never referred to in the expected EPS numbers.

     

    Bottom line: There was no beat at all on EPS, but some on revenue vs. expectations. The $0.12 beat above is an apples vs. pears comparison.
    12 Feb 2014, 05:05 PM Reply Like
  • Nigel D'Souza
    , contributor
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    Listening to the conference call. Low end of Zillow's 2014 revenue guidance is $228M which is 16% growth over 2013. According to ft.com the low end analyst expectation for 2014 revenue is $264M for 2014. Unless I misheard stated guidance, lower guidance is bearish for Zillow.
    12 Feb 2014, 05:21 PM Reply Like
  • AnLe41
    , contributor
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    OK, thanks. I missed that part. A lower revenue guidance (especially lower than low end analyst expectations) is a sure way to put pressure on the stock price.
    12 Feb 2014, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • chicagomary
    , contributor
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    yes; doing it's "normal" sell of after GREAT ### . I sold some this morning;rebought AMC @87. $1.40/share LESS :) Hope it recovers to 90's
    12 Feb 2014, 04:49 PM Reply Like
  • Nigel D'Souza
    , contributor
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    Figured it out. $0.19 is the non-GAAP EPS number. Doesn't anyone use GAAP anymore!?!

     

    Also, why is Zillow going down after posting record numbers?
    12 Feb 2014, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • AnLe41
    , contributor
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    Probably because they struggled to hit EPS estimate (see my clarification above). The target EPS was the GAAP. Maybe the conference call that just started will drive the stock price upwards. Revenue growth was better than expected.
    12 Feb 2014, 05:08 PM Reply Like
  • Nigel D'Souza
    , contributor
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    Thanks for the clarification. What a confusing article. States beat on consensus for GAAP EPS based on non-GAAP Q4 EPS.
    12 Feb 2014, 05:17 PM Reply Like
  • AnLe41
    , contributor
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    I am just watching the interview with Zillow's CEO at The Street. It's quite amazing that The Street is also reporting a $0.12 beat for EPS by looking at the non-GAAP EPS actuals and comparing that to the estimates.

     

    I am getting really confused, but when you read the compilations of Wall St. and Estimize consensus expectations ($0.07 and $0.08 respectively), all their historical numbers for consensus estimates and actuals for each of the previous quarters, they all refer to the GAAP EPS.

     

    I continue to believe that Wall St. and Estimize actually were looking at the GAAP numbers in their estimates, i.e. not a beat. If you think about it, if it truly would have been a beat by $0.12 (circa 3 times the "expected" level), the stock price would surely have gapped up big time when the results came out, as it would have been a beat on both Revs and EPS. Can't see any other explanation why the stock is otherwise chopping around at $89 now.
    12 Feb 2014, 05:22 PM Reply Like
  • King Rat
    , contributor
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    Yes, 12¢ GAAP beat would have been great, but the primary issue at the moment is revenue growth and the nature of growth in expenses. Some expense growth is expected but certain categories of costs should not expand faster than revenue. For example, if they paid 80% more on certain expenses that their research says takes 1 quarter to monetize, past quarter revenue growth is less important than outlook, but if they paid 80% more on expenses expected to have immediate ROI, current quarter revenue must expand at least 81%+. I love Zillow but I am a bit bothered that too many investors are expecting too much too fast.
    12 Feb 2014, 07:00 PM Reply Like
  • AnLe41
    , contributor
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    Good analysis. I listened to the the conference call and looked through the earnings report in more detail. The main issue that is pushing the extended hours price down is likely concerns about the 2014 revenue growth rate, and the expense at which it comes.
    I'm positive long term on Zillow, and have been in the stock since fall 2012. However, I actually sold all of it today at $91 (@ a 102% gain), as I have seen the stock tank so many times after earnings. It will be interesting to see how the price will react in regular trading tomorrow. I will consider a new position in the coming days.
    12 Feb 2014, 10:58 PM Reply Like
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