Seeking Alpha

January retail sales -0.4%

  • January Retail Sales: -0.4% vs. +0.0% expected, -0.1% prior (revised).
  • Ex-auto +0% vs. +0.1% expected, +0.3% prior (revised).
Comments (11)
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (3385) | Send Message
     
    weather. too hot in California too cold back east
    13 Feb 2014, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10709) | Send Message
     
    Quick,,, somebody say a recession is coming...
    13 Feb 2014, 08:38 AM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1547) | Send Message
     
    bbro,
    Whether it does or doesn't mean recession, you do have to admit it's a really bad number especially with a negative December number.
    It is somewhat logical based upon this number that your mind wouOd go in that direction if you just looked at the data, don't you think?
    How would you interpret it?
    13 Feb 2014, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10709) | Send Message
     
    I track 8 indicators that have superior predictive qualities to the retail sales number
    ...none of them are negative...that being said we have not had our 7% correction
    this year ( we had one in 21 in the last 25 years) and options are currently pricing a 70%
    probability of that event this year...
    13 Feb 2014, 08:46 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10709) | Send Message
     
    YoY Real Retail Sales is still positive...
    13 Feb 2014, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1547) | Send Message
     
    bbro,

     

    To your point on y/y numbers:

     

    "The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $427.8 billion, a decrease of 0.4 percent from the previous month, but 2.6 percent above January 2013. ... The November to December 2013 percent change was revised from +0.2 percent to -0.1 percent."
    13 Feb 2014, 10:48 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10709) | Send Message
     
    The leading indicator is the real retail sales ( actually it is more coincident in nature and needs confirming indicators to give it merit)...agreed the y-o-y is weak but i don't
    it much meaning without confirming signs ( and no labor force participation rate is not one of them)
    13 Feb 2014, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10709) | Send Message
     
    I will repeat again and again and again...month to month change is generally a bunch of noise..but it is actually ok with me that most people are obsessed by it...
    13 Feb 2014, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1547) | Send Message
     
    bbro,

     

    Even on inflation adjusted basis the y/y has to be positive so maybe weak but still growing which is why that negative m/m thing is potentially misleading.

     

    Anyway it would be a lot better if it were positive :)
    13 Feb 2014, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10709) | Send Message
     
    100% agree
    13 Feb 2014, 11:49 AM Reply Like
  • permanent
    , contributor
    Comments (228) | Send Message
     
    Weather and discontinuation of benefits for longtime unemployed, so not a surprise. If any surprise it is at least for me to the upside. I expected worse.
    13 Feb 2014, 08:38 AM Reply Like
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