Seeking Alpha

Gold firmly above $1,300

  • "We continue to expect further gains over the course of 2014, helped by strong demand from China and an eventual easing of the import ban in India," says Capital Economics' Julian Jessop. "In the meantime, safe-haven demand for gold has revived a little as a result of the turmoil in emerging markets.”
  • Up 1.2% to $1,315 per ounce, gold is ahead more than 4% on the week and over 9% YTD. The metal has also crossed its 200-day moving average, which could force technical buying, writes the team at Commerzbank.
  • The $1,200 level is one of strong support, says Jessop, noting it's where gold stabilized during its bear market last year and it's at that price where a significant number of gold mines become unprofitable. He continues to forecast a price of $1,450 for year-end.
  • Also having a big day is silver, up 3.4% to $21.08.
  • GLD +1.1%, SLV +2.9% premarket
  • ETFs: GLD, SLV, AGQ, IAU, PHYS, SIVR, USLV, ZSL, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GLL, DZZ, UGLD, DGL, DSLV, DBS, DGZ, AGOL, GLDI, DGLD, SLVO, TBAR, USV, UBG, GLDE, GYEN, GEUR, GGBP
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Comments (11)
  • Edward Ulysses Cate
    , contributor
    Comments (76) | Send Message
     
    Hmmm, less than 30 days ago (Jan 22), Seeking Alpha ran this commentary:
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    "Lower gold prices will likely boost Chinese physical demand, but won't be enough to "materially reverse" the downtrend in the metal, say Morgan Stanley analysts Peter Richardson and Joel Crane, cutting their 2014 forecast by 11.6% to $1,160 per ounce, and 2015 by 12.5% to $1,138."
    No wonder JPM, GS, MS and so on, call their clients "muppets."
    14 Feb, 09:51 AM Reply Like
  • DeepValueLover
    , contributor
    Comments (8609) | Send Message
     
    Go back just three months and read the SA commentary on gold.

     

    It is amazing how people can turn on a dime when they sense a change in the wind direction.

     

    The fundamentals of gold are the same then as they are now but now the market is recognizing it.
    14 Feb, 09:52 AM Reply Like
  • David at Imperial Beach
    , contributor
    Comments (4205) | Send Message
     
    Also, note that the stock market is not doing so well. There is now surely money flowing out of stocks and into gold. It's a lie that you have to be in China, India, or other emerging markets to like gold.
    14 Feb, 10:16 AM Reply Like
  • minecanary
    , contributor
    Comments (463) | Send Message
     
    I posted this about a different gold story 20 minutes ago and it was immediately removed from the board...Something is fishy about the latest surge in metals; the daily slam downs have suddenly disappeared. It's like when a hoodlum gets jailed for a few weeks for shoplifting and the local burglary spree stops. Anyone know if any of our favorite banks have suddenly increased their legal reserves by a trillion?
    14 Feb, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1049) | Send Message
     
    mine

     

    I am going to enjoy the ride on commodities while it is going on; the question is if it is going to be similar to when oil went to $147 or better; imo, it is going to be higher with all easy money sloshing around and not enough supplies; as for taper, let the Fed stop it and we'll see how fast the economy sinks, which is good for gold and silver; plus majors like ABX are cutting back on gold production and the price of gold will have to go higher with less supply
    14 Feb, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • minecanary
    , contributor
    Comments (463) | Send Message
     
    I agree physical will eventually take off and not look back but they played this same game w/the paper in Sept....let it creep up 5-6 bucks to 25$, then reamed everybody w/a quick slam back to 19.
    14 Feb, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • Rinascimento
    , contributor
    Comments (1049) | Send Message
     
    yes let them slam gold and silver; I don't see it continuing for much like before; I think we are at the point of least diminishing returns; many elections in Europe will take place in May where nonestablishment parties have a chance to win seats in European parliament that is going to shake up the status quo and this should help gold/silver prices
    14 Feb, 12:42 PM Reply Like
  • filipo
    , contributor
    Comments (3485) | Send Message
     
    Gold going up means paper profits on my PF as long as I don't sell.
    And I won't let it go...
    http://bit.ly/1eWqvjw
    14 Feb, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • nooseah
    , contributor
    Comments (468) | Send Message
     
    The number of anti-gold posts on SA in the past 6 months is legion. Where are all those gold naysayers now? How many will be 'big' enough to come back to the topic here and admit 'I was wrong'. I won't hold my breath. The big bullion banks have turned heir short positions around and are net long so now PM prices are free to the upside. While those short positions no longer threaten bullon bank solvency what will the BIS do now about a rising gold price? Allow it to rise to, say, $1400/1500 and then 'manage' it there, or stand aside? What is certain is that a low gold price threatened the supply side of the equation and artifically boosted demand so it simply had to rise, whether Central Banks liked it or not. The interesting situation just ahead of us is what happens to the QE taper -- if it gets reversed at any point gold is going to run through $2,000 without pausing, leaving those that want to keep gold out of the headlines with a head-ache.
    14 Feb, 04:08 PM Reply Like
  • james.
    , contributor
    Comments (298) | Send Message
     
    Analyst Jessop in the above article is way too conservative in his outlook for Gold price in 2014 ! Th GLD P&F Chart has a Price Objective of 150 (about $1570 per oz for Gold) for short term. Gold completed a normal Bull Market correction in 2013 on semilog paper , and is now on its 3rd Leg Up which carries Gold to new all-time highs of $2700 in May 2015, then after a small pullback, will make new all-time highs again in 2015 . This ongoing Gold Bull Market started at $253 per oz circa 2000. Look to it ! Feb 14, 2014 at 8:14 pm PST.
    14 Feb, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • Brian Bobbitt
    , contributor
    Comments (1905) | Send Message
     
    I was wrong too, I missed the bottom at $26.26, put some money where my mouth was and kept the Ag. Now I am red faced, but also have made quite a stir at the level it went down to and put my money where my mouth was again, and bought more as all my posts show.
    Now I am arranging to get a futures contract for a thousand ounces of Ag and hold until satisfied. If it goes down, I will keep hitting the margin, and eventually actually take delivery of a thousand ounce silver bar. I am totally convinced that we have seen the lows.
    My investigations tell me that the $18.50 - $19.50 range is the producer price globally, and (close enough).
    I feel that governmental forces [globally] will also support the price and cause a nice gentle rise.
    If there are any spikes, I will prolly take profits [if any] and wait for a dip to re-enter. But. for the foreseeable future, I am in Ag.
    If it had not been for a family burial, I would have been in at the $20 level.
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    I hope to be in with the futures contract before Friday this week.
    17 Feb, 10:50 AM Reply Like
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