Seeking Alpha

NAHB Housing Market Index at 46.0

Comments (9)
  • zhengliu
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    Bad weather or taper too early? Yellen.
    18 Feb 2014, 10:08 AM Reply Like
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1154) | Send Message
     
    My God, what the hell does consensus projection mean in the real world?

     

    How do all of those economists miss by that much?
    18 Feb 2014, 10:36 AM Reply Like
  • Illuminati Investments
    , contributor
    Comments (4094) | Send Message
     
    Apparently they don't get out much, anyone that stepped outside would probably have figured out that the terrible weather just might have an impact on homebuying, not to mention the rise in interest rates.

     

    If rates stay down like they have been lately with Yellen taking the helm, I think you'll see a big rebound in the spring, so probably a good time to buy the homebuilders.
    18 Feb 2014, 12:05 PM Reply Like
  • Michael Clark
    , contributor
    Comments (9029) | Send Message
     
    WE need lower housing prices and rent prices. Too large a % of earnings are going to finance overpriced housing. That's why so many people are on food stamps. Cut the housing prices in half, and we will begin to see the economy pick up.
    18 Feb 2014, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Illuminati Investments
    , contributor
    Comments (4094) | Send Message
     
    Would be nice if it were that simple, but housing is such a large part of the economy that GDP growth would suffer. During the recession housing prices were essentially cut in half in some areas, and we saw how that torpedoed the economy.

     

    Sure, nowadays we would hope that bank solvency isn't as entangled with housing prices as it was, but it would sure put a dent in the GDP number and you would see the economy contract again and companies respond by freezing hiring and people respond by probably not spending as much.
    18 Feb 2014, 01:02 PM Reply Like
  • Zenith Strategies
    , contributor
    Comments (461) | Send Message
     
    I think the point is that we would be better off if it were not as high a percentage of GDP(flawed stat anyway) and if it were more into truly productive assets.
    18 Feb 2014, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • loudano
    , contributor
    Comments (415) | Send Message
     
    @Michael

     

    Ok lets start with yours.
    18 Feb 2014, 10:07 PM Reply Like
  • dividend_growth
    , contributor
    Comments (2896) | Send Message
     
    We were already there once in 2009, that the result wasn't pretty.

     

    Sorry, the super majority of this country are home owners, and they don't like see their asset get cut in half in value.

     

    What you are trying to advocate is worse than socialism.
    18 Feb 2014, 02:57 PM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (2837) | Send Message
     
    Its not just the weather. In mid -Jan WFC said it funded $50 billion in residential mortgages in the fourth quarter, down 60% from $125 billion in the year-earlier period. J.P. Morgan reported that it funded $23 billion in mortgage loans in the fourth quarter, down 54% from a year earlier. MBA predicts 1-4 family mortgage originations will fall to $1.16T this year from $1.755T in 2013. Thats a huge drop. If it were just the weather Wells Fargo wouldn't be dropping its FHA mtg credit score requirements to 600 or subprime.
    18 Feb 2014, 03:06 PM Reply Like
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