Seeking Alpha

Gotta be the weather; housing starts dive

  • Jan. Housing Starts: 880K vs. 950K expected and 1.048M (revised) in Dec.
  • Permits 937K vs. 980K expected and 991K (revised) in Dec.
Comments (4)
  • GaltMachine
    , contributor
    Comments (1466) | Send Message
     
    Doesn't the seasonal adjustment take this into account?

     

    The prior weather is a known factor and it obviously is used to calculate an estimate to come up with consensus numbers so these guys must really suck at their jobs :)
    19 Feb 2014, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Philip Marlowe
    , contributor
    Comments (1214) | Send Message
     
    Seasonal adjustment would not take this into account. The problem was not the mere fact that it was winter, but the fact that the winter was unusually cold.

     

    I have no idea how they come up with their estimates.
    19 Feb 2014, 10:20 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10440) | Send Message
     
    I love the incorrect analysis by the financial media....the 6 month moving average
    of housing starts is at 981,000....highest since July 2008...this is good data but
    please misinterpret.....
    19 Feb 2014, 08:39 AM Reply Like
  • Bob Schwartz, CRS,GRI
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    After the Fed. got the economy hooked on artificially low interest rates even a slight uptick in these rates is having a significant impact on the housing market.
    19 Feb 2014, 11:01 AM Reply Like
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