BlackBerry +8.4% AH following Facebook/WhatsApp deal


BlackBerry (BBRY) has shot higher following news Facebook is acquiring mobile messaging leader WhatsApp for $16B up-front + $3B in restricted stock units.

Investors are betting the deal will spell a higher valuation for BBM, which had added 40M+ Android/iOS users as of December to go with its BlackBerry base. WhatsApp currently had 450M monthly active users.

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Comments (82)
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (3107) | Send Message
     
    yessiree!

     

    to the moon Alice!
    19 Feb 2014, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • RAIMENT
    , contributor
    Comments (58) | Send Message
     
    @Lyogi

     

    Shh!!

     

    MARCAP must be thinking of something sensational to report.
    19 Feb 2014, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • David653
    , contributor
    Comments (4765) | Send Message
     
    Facebook is going to make whatsup better, how this is going to help BBM is beyond me. Facebook is going to intertwine whatsup into their platform.
    19 Feb 2014, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • mikebator
    , contributor
    Comments (1867) | Send Message
     
    No matter what you say or don't say, having a 0 multiple on all assets when discussing BlackBerry leads to only one conclusion, MAPS valuation. T's true 2013 will go down as a dark day when then the wolves saw through the sheep's skin, aye, but the 'morrow of 2014 will be known as the reign of Long John Chen, when the kingdom was purged and rebuilt retreating back to the home land leaving outposts in the new world in the care of the fox and BBM to keep the last beach head for accelerated growth.
    19 Feb 2014, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • David653
    , contributor
    Comments (4765) | Send Message
     
    And if BBM is valuable why didn't Facebook buy it for the 4.7B? Yet they spent 16B for whatsup. To be honest I think this move lessened the value of BBM.
    19 Feb 2014, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (3107) | Send Message
     
    The short answer is it was mandatory for any suitor of BlackBerry to keep the company whole and bring the power of BB10 to fruition.

     

    Bbm as a separate entity was not on the table
    19 Feb 2014, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • Arduino_RaspberryPi
    , contributor
    Comments (376) | Send Message
     
    Is there an ignore feature in sa?
    19 Feb 2014, 07:46 PM Reply Like
  • seekingthetrooth
    , contributor
    Comments (854) | Send Message
     
    I ignore his comments. Gave him a rare friendly advice. He didn't take it and in turn reported me to SA moderators. Ask pjew. Sorry Dave I wanted to help you out but you turned it down.

     

    I urge all to either ignore his messages i.e. Not to respond or if you can't resist the urge just type ROTFL!
    19 Feb 2014, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • anonymous1234212
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    And KIA! Don't forget KIA. Can't wait for his negative spin. Grabbing my popcorn now.
    19 Feb 2014, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • BlackBerryQ10
    , contributor
    Comments (6) | Send Message
     
    What's "Whatsup" in their platform?
    19 Feb 2014, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • Crispin_in_Waterloo
    , contributor
    Comments (1637) | Send Message
     
    Because it was refused.
    20 Feb 2014, 03:45 AM Reply Like
  • Crispin_in_Waterloo
    , contributor
    Comments (1637) | Send Message
     
    My guess? BBM is still being developed as a business application - multiple users, confidential work spaces across multiple locations, a desktop version and so on.

     

    What's Ap is useful for a couple of things. It is not a business-friendly application. Neither is FaceBook.

     

    There is a huge amount under the hood of BBM - all the signs are obvious. The deal with Citrix was announced long ago. The BB10 OS was crafted to be able to do this and BBM is the platform.

     

    For those who have non BB devices, update your BBM and try the BBM voice that was activated last week. Works beautifully on Samsung Galaxy. My friend in Kenya loaded BBM for the first time and is 'converting' all his friends to it because it is so much better than other chat aps (he says).
    20 Feb 2014, 03:50 AM Reply Like
  • Kasteel Research
    , contributor
    Comments (182) | Send Message
     
    Wow! $16 billion, $35 per user.
    19 Feb 2014, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (3107) | Send Message
     
    actually 19B!
    19 Feb 2014, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • David653
    , contributor
    Comments (4765) | Send Message
     
    LOL you guys are silly, Facebook would not buy BB whole company that would have included BBM. They bought Whatsup for 19B, does this not tell you something??
    19 Feb 2014, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (3107) | Send Message
     
    See above, bbm was never in play as a spin off as management required potential suitors to commit to keeping bb10 alive.
    19 Feb 2014, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • Crispin_in_Waterloo
    , contributor
    Comments (1637) | Send Message
     
    It tells me that FB has more dollars than sense.
    20 Feb 2014, 03:51 AM Reply Like
  • Alphabetsy
    , contributor
    Comments (95) | Send Message
     
    @David653

     

    Can you please explain your point vis a vis $FB ensuring their market (especially with BBM directly challenging a portion of $FB).
    20 Feb 2014, 07:44 AM Reply Like
  • Kurt Windibank
    , contributor
    Comments (1304) | Send Message
     
    Booyah
    19 Feb 2014, 05:39 PM Reply Like
  • DeepValueLover
    , contributor
    Comments (11067) | Send Message
     
    Prem Watsa is smarter than his detractors.
    19 Feb 2014, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Splenosis
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
     
    Hold on tight fellas!

     

    Sent from the best smartphone on the planet - Blackberry z30
    19 Feb 2014, 05:40 PM Reply Like
  • Giulio76
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
     
    With 100M+ users and Bbm channel that can generate income Bbm could worth 5 bilion...
    Just a crazy valuation for whatsup lol
    19 Feb 2014, 05:42 PM Reply Like
  • Arduino_RaspberryPi
    , contributor
    Comments (376) | Send Message
     
    Time to short fb
    19 Feb 2014, 05:44 PM Reply Like
  • DeepValueLover
    , contributor
    Comments (11067) | Send Message
     
    Mark Zuckerberg may have just made (BBRY) investors a mint!
    19 Feb 2014, 05:45 PM Reply Like
  • Kurt Windibank
    , contributor
    Comments (1304) | Send Message
     
    BBM has video,screen sharing,Glimpse location service,Channels....its much better than What's App. Value it at half and BBM is worth 9.5B on its own now?
    19 Feb 2014, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • David653
    , contributor
    Comments (4765) | Send Message
     
    If that is true why didn't Facebook buy BlackBerry instead when it was for sale, for way less?? It's because it's worth zip.
    19 Feb 2014, 07:11 PM Reply Like
  • Crispin_in_Waterloo
    , contributor
    Comments (1637) | Send Message
     
    David653

     

    While I understand that you have one drum to beat, BBRY is not 'worth zip'. Very smart investors are acting on their instincts: BBRY is a steal at $10. They are future oriented, not projecting trendlines from the past. This sector is dynamic and being rewritten (again) by BBRY's inventiveness.
    20 Feb 2014, 03:54 AM Reply Like
  • MarcusWright
    , contributor
    Comments (39) | Send Message
     
    It just occurred to me that perhaps back when FB was supposedly talking with BBRY during the "company sale", they may have been eyeing BBM and its security but didn't want to also buy the other departments. That's just my guess, but if FB is willing to pay $16B for WhatsApp (more than BBRY's entire market cap!!), then BBM's potential value can be very significant (based on current user base, 10% of WhatsApp, it'd be about $1.6B).
    19 Feb 2014, 05:55 PM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (3107) | Send Message
     
    BBM has more than 10% of WhatsAPP MAU...I believe it is closer to 25% which translates to a 4-5B valuation for BBM.

     

    Even if we call it 3B it's looking good for longs.
    19 Feb 2014, 06:35 PM Reply Like
  • David653
    , contributor
    Comments (4765) | Send Message
     
    Since Whatsup came into play BBM customers have been migrating to Whatsup. This is why Facebook did not buy BlackBerry. Just because BBM is a messenger app does not automatically make it worth lots. Would this mean all messaging apps are worth Billions?, I think not.
    19 Feb 2014, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • stevef1086
    , contributor
    Comments (52) | Send Message
     
    Show me the facts for this statement, or is it just your opinion?
    19 Feb 2014, 07:43 PM Reply Like
  • 6372381
    , contributor
    Comments (256) | Send Message
     
    Good try to defend your short position but it seems your buddies are jumping the ship. Take a look at berstein report telling BlackBerry is no more a good short target. Good luck.
    19 Feb 2014, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • chintan1671
    , contributor
    Comments (77) | Send Message
     
    Valuation has less to do with MAU's and more with traffic.. Whatsapp has daily traffic more than FB & for BBM its unknown for now.. Giving valuations to BBM at this point is useless
    20 Feb 2014, 12:03 AM Reply Like
  • seekingthetrooth
    , contributor
    Comments (854) | Send Message
     
    It is known for BBM. Messages Per User on BBM is at least twice of other IMs. So with that known how is it that BBM valuation is pointless?
    20 Feb 2014, 01:54 AM Reply Like
  • seekingthetrooth
    , contributor
    Comments (854) | Send Message
     
    My reference -

     

    About BBM
    BBM has more than 60 million monthly active customers, with more than 51 million people using BBM an average of 90 minutes per day. BBM customers collectively send and receive more than 10 billion messages each day, nearly twice as many messages per user per day as compared to other mobile messaging apps. Almost half of BBM messages are read within 20 seconds of being received; indicating how truly engaged BBM customers are.

     

    This was October 22, 2013 press release - http://bit.ly/1h91nn0
    20 Feb 2014, 01:56 AM Reply Like
  • Crispin_in_Waterloo
    , contributor
    Comments (1637) | Send Message
     
    Messaging aps are worth something per user and according to the total number of users. The valuation formula is approximately the square root of the number of users times the valuation per user.

     

    For example 450m x 10^-2 x Valuation = $19bn
    20 Feb 2014, 03:56 AM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (3107) | Send Message
     
    Think about this:

     

    if this deal values WhatsApp users at $40 a head what are BBM users worth who happen to be the world's elite?

     

    more, much more.
    19 Feb 2014, 05:57 PM Reply Like
  • David653
    , contributor
    Comments (4765) | Send Message
     
    It seems not to be the world's elite, the whole BlackBerry company couldn't sell for 4.7B. The reason Whatsup sold for that much is because consumers like it, and Facebook knows it otherwise they would have bought BBM
    19 Feb 2014, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • seekingthetrooth
    , contributor
    Comments (854) | Send Message
     
    First off Dave it's not whatsup. It's Whatsapp. Second the BBM user market is segmented from the other IM markets. For BBM you don't automatically have access to most of your phone contacts in your phone list. That means with BBM you have to build your own list. That's the reason why a BBM user only builds contacts with those they know well and can frequently connect with them. That's why I think the 100+ user base has a higher attachment rate with BBM. The BBM user engagement is higher than its peers.

     

    Now that's back and forth messaging. How about BBM Voice? Ever tried that? Ever been on Viber and Skype just to have your calls dropped. Have you seen any of the brand's Channels in BBM? Do you know what the potential is there?

     

    BBM for consumer. BBM Enterprise. The user engagement. The channels. The Voice.

     

    Mark my words - If BBM sub base grows, user engagement remains high, with the access coming online for the low-end users who constitute a larger smartphone market share, this baby is worth far more than what FB paid for.

     

    I even think the purchase price is cheap as FB has definitely discounted the fact that Whatsapp may be never more 5-8 years down the road. It has already started with TWTR. Past week they've send me 2 reminders to complete my profile. Heard from them 1st time in a long time. TWTR and Whatsapp are dying patients. BBM business model as above is set to endure long after you and your ilk are gone from here.
    19 Feb 2014, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • newportironman
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    At the risk of sounding elitist I have to agree with you. Something one hears little of. What does a typical BlackBerry user profile look like next to that of a What's App user.
    19 Feb 2014, 11:11 PM Reply Like
  • seekingthetrooth
    , contributor
    Comments (854) | Send Message
     
    @David. Here's one reason why people are switching to BBM.

     

    A text, a call.. A missed step, the fall..
    Or would you rather be posting on my fb wall?
    Wanna hold you face to face and eye to eye for a chat..
    Or do I keep checking whatsApp for last seen at..,?

     

    - By Vinita Sharon Gibson

     

    Huge privacy issues with Whatsup.. (Whatsapp)
    20 Feb 2014, 01:52 AM Reply Like
  • perryy
    , contributor
    Comments (93) | Send Message
     
    @david,though I have tried not to reply your comments, but having discovered that your ignorance about the subject matter you are prating about knows no bound, I decided to respond to you. As at the time BlackBerry was up for sale, BBM has not gone cross-platform and the future of BlackBerry was hazy. Again, there was a clause in the sale deal that anyone buying BlackBerry must continue with BlackBerry 10. This is to make sure the world feels the power of BlackBerry 10, which is unarguably the best platform in the world today and in the next thousands of years to come.

     

    Meanwhile, Facebook doesn't want to dabble into areas outside social media, that was why Facebook kept away from buying BlackBerry. Even, a suckered knows that BBM is far superior to whatsapp that is marred with insecurity and which also involves you giving out your personal phone number to use it. It has neither voice nor video calls. Does it have location sharing? Does it have screen sharing? NO. Now, you do the maths.

     

    Fired from my BlackBerry Z10 my weapon of choice.
    20 Feb 2014, 02:13 AM Reply Like
  • Randal James
    , contributor
    Comments (4406) | Send Message
     
    "...in the next thousands of years to come."

     

    It is only February and yet I am certain I will see very few contenders for silliest comment of the year that can top that.

     

    First Home PC - 1977
    First online trading - 1994
    First Blackberry Phone - 2003
    Dec. 20, 2013 Sales fell 56% over the year to $1.2 billion.
    2114 BB10 - Dominate for thousands of years?
    20 Feb 2014, 02:40 AM Reply Like
  • Crispin_in_Waterloo
    , contributor
    Comments (1637) | Send Message
     
    David653 you have made this identical comment several times above. FB was not offered a chance to buy BBM, and neither were you. It is not for sale. However we read about someone who recently bought 1.9% of it...
    20 Feb 2014, 03:57 AM Reply Like
  • Crispin_in_Waterloo
    , contributor
    Comments (1637) | Send Message
     
    With BBM you don't have to give people your phone number!
    20 Feb 2014, 03:58 AM Reply Like
  • perryy
    , contributor
    Comments (93) | Send Message
     
    Yes. It is possible that bb10 will dominate for thousands of years.can u name any source of energy that has overtaken pms in cars and other automobiles? Bb10 os will do the same for years. It sounds like nonsense, right. But there is whole lot of sense in the nonsense.

     

    Please stop throwing tantrum at me. I'd you disagree with me, politely say so.shun every form of barbarism and impropriety
    20 Feb 2014, 08:41 AM Reply Like
  • Tricky
    , contributor
    Comments (2326) | Send Message
     
    Er, cars haven't exactly been around for thousands of years.

     

    Perhaps the analogy you are looking for is "BB10 = the wheel".

     

    Alrighty then.
    20 Feb 2014, 08:53 AM Reply Like
  • Randal James
    , contributor
    Comments (4406) | Send Message
     
    Huge privacy issues...

     

    One can tell by the 450M users exactly how important that is. In perspective:

     

    "The Canadian manufacturer's problems are compounded by the continued poor performance of its next-generation smartphone platform BB10. The company managed to sell 4.3 million smartphones to customers last quarter, which in itself a staggeringly low figure, but the company notes that only 1.1 million of those phones were running BB10.

     

    When you consider that just two years ago the company shipped 14.2 million smartphones in the equivalent quarter, 1.1 million sales of devices running what was supposed to be BlackBerry's answer to iOS, Android, and Windows Phone is very worrying. When compared to market leaders like Samsung and Apple, who shipped more than 110 million devices combined last quarter, or even Nokia, which sold 8.8 million Lumia Windows Phones, it's even worse."

     

    Yep, security must be right up there with...
    20 Feb 2014, 10:33 AM Reply Like
  • perryy
    , contributor
    Comments (93) | Send Message
     
    Hey guys, don't take my thousands of years literally. I simply mean BlackBerry 10 will dominate the mobile landscape for years.

     

    Let me grab some pop corn
    21 Feb 2014, 09:56 AM Reply Like
  • perryy
    , contributor
    Comments (93) | Send Message
     
    @ Randal James, You are very rude and insultive. How can you call my comment silly?please mind the way you talk to people.

     

    Do have a great day though.
    21 Feb 2014, 09:59 AM Reply Like
  • mikebator
    , contributor
    Comments (1867) | Send Message
     
    Game on as they arm for the new ecosystem of our next generation, the pioneer bloodied beaten and from the ashes rises a new leader collecting his thoughts and fortifying his position as the kid opens the piggy bank. He sees it and calls it like it is, he likes a good fight and he's won impressively before. Rim is truly dead having buried Heins, Long live BlackBerry and it's first true king, Long john Chen! And thanks Mark, I clicked the like button.
    19 Feb 2014, 06:32 PM Reply Like
  • mikebator
    , contributor
    Comments (1867) | Send Message
     
    Oh and Mark sooooooo shared it, literally :)
    19 Feb 2014, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Randal James
    , contributor
    Comments (4406) | Send Message
     
    This is the epitome of irrational exuberance, and I should send you all to the dunce corner to sit and think about what you did wrong. Alas, for the BBRY faithful, there are not enough chairs or little pointy hats.

     

    IF you follow Facebook, which you should because they are attempting to be the next company to enter the pantheon of great tech companies (or die trying), you should know that there is trouble. Trouble with a capital T and that rhymes with G and that stands for Growth. Facebook has lost its moxie in this country, is starting to slip in the next wave of countries to adopt, and was left with the Micronesians and Bolivians to monetize. Yikes!

     

    So they took a bold course and bought where the growth and interest was still strong, picking up a huge chunk of that youthful demographic that had eroded away from them. It is perhaps a smart move but it depends on this being something that allows them to retain their hip image or is it just another big-ass company buying something cool so they can try and sell stuff on the Net, because annoyed tweeners will swim away from Whatsapp just as fast as they slid away from FB.

     

    Buy you folks... conjurers of "is there a pony in the bag?" have decided that perhaps Facebook will buy everything, not just the leader with 10 times the viewership. This is the kind of logic that would suggest if someone bought McDonalds, surely to heaven they would be coming after Hardee's next because... because... we have HALF POUND burgers!

     

    Alternately, that one of the other tech giants - Microsoft, Google, Apple and Samsung - will need to buy BBRY to keep up in the messaging sphere. Some of those names kicked the tires already and left, whistling past the graveyard.

     

    Focus on the enterprise business that Chen is trying to build, not on these distractions and you will be more plausible.
    19 Feb 2014, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (3107) | Send Message
     
    "Alternately, that one of the other tech giants - Microsoft, Google, Apple and Samsung - will need to buy BBRY to keep up in the messaging sphere. Some of those names kicked the tires already and left, whistling past the graveyard."

     

    That was then, this is now.

     

    Today the parameters of the game changed.

     

    GOOG, MSFT, AAPL etc may have balked at the asking price of BBM/BBRY last fall, now they have a reference point to value the messenging service and the impetus to buy it so as to compete with FB.

     

    that is one possibility.

     

    The other is that BBM continues to grow organically and its technical and functional superiority becomes more and more apparent to the masses.

     

    BBmoney overtakes paypal, BBM Channels competes with FB and Twitter...a lot can, and will change in the years ahead. And BBRY is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing market worldwide with Foxconn by their side.
    19 Feb 2014, 06:58 PM Reply Like
  • Randal James
    , contributor
    Comments (4406) | Send Message
     
    BB is more like Wile E. Coyote - except no Roadrunner in sight.

     

    http://bit.ly/1jRApVQ

     

    MSFT not interested in social as much as staying the #1 computer OS. Google just wants to own search and sell ads around that function. Samsung wants to be the largest mobile hardware vendor on the planet. Apple wants its ecosystem to stay intact.

     

    Everybody wants in on mobile payment and it is sure hard to see where BBRY, with such a minimal footprint and tiny % of NFC devices, can make a loud argument for implementation. Oh, it will be from the retailer's side? There are already payment systems that do that, including NCR. This is like suggesting we improve trade with Mexico by teaching all the Americans conversational Spanish.

     

    BBM may have good implications for commercial users, but it will not be making a guest appearance on the stage for the next social media convention. Its redundant.
    19 Feb 2014, 07:48 PM Reply Like
  • Zack 800
    , contributor
    Comments (2016) | Send Message
     
    @Randal James

     

    Why do you feel the need to "rain on our parade. You can not deny that "longs" have endured many turbulent time times over the last little bit and for us to find encouragement that may substantiate that BBM may really be worth something is certainly good news to us!

     

    Nobody, not even you, can deny that giving BBM some value is now possible. It is all about comparables....
    19 Feb 2014, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • Randal James
    , contributor
    Comments (4406) | Send Message
     
    Zack

     

    It occurred to me the other day whilst I was similarly throwing cold water on the JCP longs that these are almost political arguments. There are half as many Penney stores as there used to be because Penney, much like also-troubled Sears, has been collateral damage from the growth of the Internet, Walmart and Target, and the development of narrow specialty stores, such as Toys-r-Us. Kohl's and Macys have been expanding, JCP and Sears (and K-Mart), the opposite.

     

    Following a tiny uptick (2%) in same-store sales - the first in about 2 years, longs are jazzed about rocketing back to the top. One ebullient long said they would pass Macy in price per share this year.

     

    You see my issue? JCP is so stuck in slow quicksand that they've been distracted by a passing butterfly. It never occurs to me not to be around to offer (and freely!) my own reality check which is, as you note, routinely ignored.

     

    BBRY reports very late in the quarter, an event recently that has often been the final dismal note at quarter's end. Will March's news be different? Handset sales are way down so subscription revenue is likely to follow. Fox Conn isn't selling anything yet. Land has been sold and property leased back which increases cash and expenses at the same time. I don't worry so much about cash, what I want to see is the inflection point of "we believe" coming from shareholders and Chen. It needs to be from GE Capital and Morgan Stanley and NTT - big, honcho corporations. In American football terms, I'd like to see some Division I wins against Oklahoma rather than from Central Appalachian Teacher's College.

     

    In terms we can all understand, "Show Me The Money!" [Jerry Maguire, 1996] News that a competing system sold for a lot of money? That's news that BB did not. I've never said that BBRY is headed for the lockers. In fact, I've held that what Chen has verbalized was perhaps the best way forward. The unknown was how damaged the goods were during the great recall and fire sale. And no one knows yet. Chen is adroit and (imo) doing a good job. I hope your enthusiasm is tangibly rewarded at the earnings report.

     

    I hope my friend LYogi can sneer at me from his mountain of cash.
    My reality, is when I pan for gold, I need to see flecks in the pan before I get excited. Some longs get excited even from tales of gold or from gold in someone else's pan in another river.

     

    I started this about politics and, as you've surely noted, the positives are running about 6:1 Would you have no 1's? Really?
    20 Feb 2014, 01:56 AM Reply Like
  • Crispin_in_Waterloo
    , contributor
    Comments (1637) | Send Message
     
    Randall, that was a pretty funny read.

     

    Thanks
    Crispin
    20 Feb 2014, 04:00 AM Reply Like
  • Faxbot
    , contributor
    Comments (505) | Send Message
     
    "Google just wants to own search and sell ads around that function. "

     

    Perhaps you have forgotten about google+...
    20 Feb 2014, 06:54 AM Reply Like
  • Zack 800
    , contributor
    Comments (2016) | Send Message
     
    @Randall

     

    Sorry that I got "lost" in your reply. Would I have no 1's...not sure what that means...feeling kind of silly as others understand. Just curious.

     

    I get that you don't get excited easily but by the time you get excited it may be too late...just saying...

     

    I don't think it so terrible that "longs " can at least find some value to BBM as we have heard many times on SA that BBM has "no" value.
    20 Feb 2014, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • Randal James
    , contributor
    Comments (4406) | Send Message
     
    Thanks, Crispin. Sometimes we take this investing stuff far too seriously - even though it is real money. I've been much happier with my progress when I was able to admit my 'ooops!' stocks rather than trying to defend them.

     

    Let's face it, most stocks are stable - little bit up or down. Where vocal online investors congregate is at the margins and I believe it is true that it is where one might find bargains.

     

    Also worth note: it is where investors often discover stocks that were perceived great deals that wind up going 2 floors down to the parking garage. Usually, that is discovered a bit too late.
    20 Feb 2014, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • Thurai sivakumaran
    , contributor
    Comments (29) | Send Message
     
    Didn't expect this to happen so soon.

     

    Bit of relief for John Chen our CEO. Enjoy the ride.
    19 Feb 2014, 06:47 PM Reply Like
  • pjews
    , contributor
    Comments (866) | Send Message
     
    FB just handed JC a filet mignon steak on a silver platter, with a 40 dollar bottle of Merlot red whine. Bon apetite JC.
    19 Feb 2014, 07:35 PM Reply Like
  • Arduino_RaspberryPi
    , contributor
    Comments (376) | Send Message
     
    I bet what's app will lose half their users once they find out Facebook bought them.
    19 Feb 2014, 07:51 PM Reply Like
  • LTI0723
    , contributor
    Comments (854) | Send Message
     
    Not picking sides here but...

     

    Reading the comments, it's pretty clear that both BBRY longs and shorts share one unfortunately trait. Both interpret new information in a way that supports their pre-existing view. That's a shame because, long or sort, we can't benefit from new information if we don't view it objectively.

     

    That said, the market seems to think the FB purchase changes the value of BBM for the better. Nuff said.
    19 Feb 2014, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • Z10isgreat
    , contributor
    Comments (321) | Send Message
     
    Forgive the giddy exuberance of the longs, it's been years since we've had much to feel hopeful about. I agree, if the focus is on enterprise, similar news from this sector will tell the turnaround tale.
    19 Feb 2014, 08:12 PM Reply Like
  • LTI0723
    , contributor
    Comments (854) | Send Message
     
    I understand, believe me. I'm a long as well and have been through a tough year with you. As for the FB thing, I see it as a net positive, and based on Mr. Market's initial reaction, he does too.
    19 Feb 2014, 08:33 PM Reply Like
  • gladtidings
    , contributor
    Comments (259) | Send Message
     
    Here is some news for BB longs to digest. BB is no longer for sale. So let's not waste time trying to counter the naysayers.
    Following is an extract from Street Authority paraphrased ...
    "German software giant (SAP-N) involved with 'predictive plants' has consistently outperformed over the last 5 years. SAP is one of the biggest players in everything from analytics to cloud computing, from mobile phones to database management. SAP is in the forefront of predictive analysis. Without SAP's analytic systems, many of these predictions would not even be possible. This aside, unlike two of its competitors, Oracle and IBM, SAP has placed considerable focus on one of the fastest growing areas in tech - cloud computing. As more employees work from home, cloud computing systems like the ones SAP provides are quickly becoming some of the most in demand products by today's business community. CNBC's Jim Cramer has said cloud computing, social networks and mobile technology are considered indispensables in tech. And no one does it better than SAP. SAP's forecast annual sales of $30 billion by 2017 - up a full 30% from its revenue of $23 billion - is significantly higher than the expected growth rate for both IBM and Oracle."...John Chen's right-hand men are from SAP and it conveys some hint on the direction he is taking BB forward where mobile management viz-a-viz enterprises will be a vital part of corporations that are evolving. The pieces are beginning to fall into place for BB IMHO.
    19 Feb 2014, 08:42 PM Reply Like
  • Tobias Schmitz
    , contributor
    Comments (544) | Send Message
     
    I've got the feeling that Mr Zuckerberg is going to regret this move. Just like Rupert Murdoch when he shelled out billions for Myspace. Does anybody remember Myspace?
    As a consequence I'm not convinced that this deal will have any long term upward influence on BBRY. Maybe it'll attract a couple of traders and scare some shorts but in two weeks the dust will have settled and we will be back where we are now.
    19 Feb 2014, 09:44 PM Reply Like
  • Tricky
    , contributor
    Comments (2326) | Send Message
     
    I have no dog in the religious wars re: BBRY. I have never been long or short.

     

    My own opinion is that the WhatsApp price tag and acquisition won't really mean as much as the BBRY longs' hopes seem to be this evening. In studying humans for a long time, I've concluded that fear is a much stronger motivator than greed. Facebook viewed Instagram and WhatsApp as existential threats... hence, the silly prices. They both also had insane growth rates at the time of purchase, which is often a big factor in silly prices.

     

    BBM isn't an existential threat to anyone who has the $$ capacity to pay a silly price for it, it doesn't have the kind of growth rates that scare such buyers, and it isn't the "it girl" amongst the trendy teens. So I just don't see the drivers for the *level* of optimism being displayed.

     

    But we shall see. Good tidings to all, please re-commence the religious war.
    19 Feb 2014, 09:59 PM Reply Like
  • Yasch22
    , contributor
    Comments (849) | Send Message
     
    Good points, Tricky, and yes, a lot of us are religiously impassioned, making prophecies, condemning the wicked to everlasting hellfire, and praying for BlackBerry's ongoing resurrection as it walks through the valley of the shadow of death. But you're missing a really simple point, and that is that BBM doesn't require a buyout for the application of a monetary value. Two messaging apps have been bought out in the last few days: Viber and Whatsapp. The purchase prices for both can be used as benchmarks in an attempt to determine the value of BBM either as a standalone messaging app or as something that could add considerable value to aspects of BB's business model, especially in handset sales and in BES 10 applications. If BB can configure BBM to make it a strong selling point for intranet messaging, voice calls, and video conferencing in the enterprise, then that obviously adds value to BB. Presumably both Rakuten (new owner of Viber) and Facebook believe that their messaging apps will be independently able to generate profits at some point in the near future. Similarly, BBM ought to be able to produce profits some day at a roughly similar rate to those produce by Viber and Whatsapp. If BBM gains no more than 100 million users, and charges the same that Whatsapp does ($1/year), then that would mean a $100m in revenue for BB. That's before any money that might be generated via ads, via their brand channels (run through ScrOOn), via sticker apps and all that other stuff sold out of BB World, or even revenue derived from a future gaming service. Investors and analysts are trying to figure out what all that might be worth a couple of years from now. Viber and Whatsapp supply a couple of benchmarks both at the high and low end of the scale.

     

    Just thought I'd add that BBM still has a Whatsapp-like cachet in a large number of countries, especially in Africa, the Middle East, Indonesia, and the Caribbean. A study done recently showed that BBM download rates are usually 2X to 3X those for Viber. http://bit.ly/MdQjuI That's got to be worth something. If I had to guess, I'd say BBM is worth 2X what Rakuten paid for Viber.
    20 Feb 2014, 12:05 AM Reply Like
  • Tricky
    , contributor
    Comments (2326) | Send Message
     
    Hello Yasch22, thanks for the civil debate. I would certainly agree with you that BBM should enjoy a valuation commensurate with the visible discounted cash flow of profit that it will tangibly produce per user, factoring in some growth rate.

     

    My contention is that FB's purchases of Instagram and WhatsApp had a very different "valuation dynamic". FB's rationale had far more to do with "we are going to lose lots of users to these guys, which will not only take away ad revenue, but also suck the life out of our PE ratio" than what it hoped to monetize. It was more about avoidance of loss > investing in growth. So the only thing that would allow BBRM to enjoy the same value/user is if someone sees FB's acquisitions as the same kind of existential threat.

     

    Also, Instagram and WhatsApp enjoy *perceptions* (incorrect or not) re: growth rate that BBRM does not enjoy (fairly or not).

     

    I cannot speak to the Viber situation.

     

    Cheers.
    20 Feb 2014, 08:04 AM Reply Like
  • Yasch22
    , contributor
    Comments (849) | Send Message
     
    Tricky -- just realized that I agree almost entirely with you. For some reason I read something more negative or dismissive in your original post than was actually there. The simple prorating of BBM's value to WhatsApp's on per-user basis (i.e. 450m X $42 : 80m X $42) is absurd for all the reasons you make clear. Unlike Whatsapp, cross-platform BBM does not yet represent a major challenge to FB (does not inspire anxiety/fear), would not yet confer any cool factor to FB (does not inspire desire), and doesn't yet have a defined, significant income stream or monetizing strategy.

     

    My argument is simply that investors are not wrong in getting excited about the present and prospective value of BBM to BB. Sure, the ones who are saying BBM is worth $4 or $5 billion are in the grip of a religious enthusiasm, but the ones who are talking more along the lines of $500m to $1.5 billion (for present-day value) have solid sober reasons for thinking that way. That's the reason for the analogy with Viber, which claims to have 300m users and was bought for $900m by Rakuten just a week ago. A year from today, it's not exactly a giant stretch to see BBM with 200m+ active users, a new inclusion of Windows Phones, and a BBM that has the full suite of texting, voice messaging (some of the major messaging apps stop here), full voice calling, and video chatting -- and all of this with BB's best in class security, antenna/tuning (through Paratek), and network back-up through its NOCs. At that time, I don't think it's absurd to think that BBM's valuation will get into the $3 or $4b range. Part of that will be due to the reasons you talk about, including the threat BBM will represent to all kinds of players, including the other messaging apps, to Microsoft/Skype, and even to Facebook, especially if BBM starts to add FB features such as Likes + Status updates to BBM Channels.

     

    Last note re: growth rate. Again, I think you're absolutely right that this will be key. One hopeful sign is that BBM is being preloaded on more than a dozen Android OEMs. http://bit.ly/1nUdlmC Most of these companies are small (selling 2 to 10 million handsets per year), but two of them are Samsung (for phones sold in Africa & the Middle East) and LG on its G Pro Lite phones. http://bit.ly/1nUdjuV
    21 Feb 2014, 03:57 PM Reply Like
  • Tricky
    , contributor
    Comments (2326) | Send Message
     
    Yasch22 -- and where I'll come back around and agree with your point of view... these transactions have probably raised the "baseline" market value of mobile messaging franchises, or at least a better appreciation of the future monetization potential even without M&A activity.

     

    But we're in agreement that nothing currently in view will cause BBM to enjoy WhatsApp's silly market-value-user.

     

    Cheers.
    21 Feb 2014, 06:23 PM Reply Like
  • LYogi
    , contributor
    Comments (3107) | Send Message
     
    Nothing save for the fact bbm is currently the only secured messaging system. So business will have to pay for that privilege!
    21 Feb 2014, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Ben Hofstede
    , contributor
    Comments (87) | Send Message
     
    This explains why Dan Loeb bought 1,9% of BBRY's shares.
    He knew all along.
    19 Feb 2014, 10:25 PM Reply Like
  • iBBB
    , contributor
    Comments (150) | Send Message
     
    How does this help BB? ...they could have had all of BB today for under 5.5 billion but instead chose Whats App, a company BBrs claim is not even close to BBM.
    19 Feb 2014, 11:10 PM Reply Like
  • howieLONG
    , contributor
    Comments (42) | Send Message
     
    Facebook could have bought blackberry twice for the amount of what's app. Kinda a head scratcher but you have to perhaps look at the other side of the coin when saying it makes BBM that much more valuable. Seems based on what just happened they valued BBM far under that of what's app. The stock is only up 4% after the sell off today. If many of these conclusions above were true it should be much higher. Again, who knows what's happening behind closed doors, let just all keep in perspective the insiders know more than we do.
    19 Feb 2014, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • Rayman48
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Smart people use BlackBerry!
    19 Feb 2014, 11:12 PM Reply Like
  • EditBio
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    The valuation of whatsapp is on potential and the "hope" is adoption rate will continue on to a billion users. thats all. Much of the money around FB is all about looking for the next high/fast growth company like instagram. They are insanely overvalued at the time when purchased. They know there is no guarantee it will pan out.

     

    You guys are looking for missing pieces to a puzzle in an image of $. This acquisition has nothing to do with bbry. Much of the market is ignoring bbry except for those in denial and the dumb money.

     

    Calling it now. BBRY at 6$ by mid year.

     

    19 Feb 2014, 11:16 PM Reply Like
  • anonymous1234212
    , contributor
    Comments (167) | Send Message
     
    Hi Marcap! Thanks for your price target. I will act accordingly
    20 Feb 2014, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • SA User 74XXXXX
    , contributor
    Comments (832) | Send Message
     
    One notable characteristic of the stock $BBRY is the tendency to perform such a big V bounce. It is definitely not a good target for the short sellers to attack, no matter what trend it is going.

     

    IMHO
    20 Feb 2014, 12:14 AM Reply Like
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