Seeking Alpha

PMI Manufacturing Flash at 56.7, hits highest level in almost 4 years

US Feb. PMI Manufacturing Flash 56.7 vs consensus of 53.5, 53.7 in Jan.

Comments (11)
  • Philip Marlowe
    , contributor
    Comments (1411) | Send Message
    Great news! Orders are growing, inventories are low, prices are going down. The last one means the fed is less likely to raise rates soon.
    20 Feb 2014, 09:11 AM Reply Like
  • Moon Kil Woong
    , contributor
    Comments (12411) | Send Message
    So what to believe Philly or leading indicators. Both are fundamentally flawed and are hardly leading. They serve to perpetuate mythology rather than provide real direction which was exactly what they did in the 2007-2008 downturn where everyone didn't realize the meltdown until over 4 months into the downturn.
    20 Feb 2014, 11:54 AM Reply Like
  • James Sands
    , contributor
    Comments (2437) | Send Message
    Just check demand via corporate earnings/metrics, things may be mixed somewhat, but overall positive. If those are flawed, then it's all just a game, but in that event, it is still worth playing....


    Too many people depend on this game......
    20 Feb 2014, 04:01 PM Reply Like
  • quabbin
    , contributor
    Comments (125) | Send Message
    "Too many people depend on this game......"


    James nailed it.
    20 Feb 2014, 06:41 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6591) | Send Message


    good numbers are flawed but bad numbers are embraced.. Priceless !!


    A thought on the "negative" bias..

    20 Feb 2014, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • quabbin
    , contributor
    Comments (125) | Send Message
    Whats with the Philly fed miss, FG?
    20 Feb 2014, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6591) | Send Message
    What else -- Weather :)


    The survey covers factories in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.


    They have been buried in Snow and temps well below normal >


    Philadelphia recently cited that this winter has made the top 5 in all time worst winter seasons in history ..
    20 Feb 2014, 01:24 PM Reply Like
  • quabbin
    , contributor
    Comments (125) | Send Message
    FG....can't tell if that's sarcasm or not.
    I need to look at what factories the survey uses to get it's data to see if weather really has an impact.
    I'm sure many factories function perfectly well in good or bad weather don't you think? your column on negative bias and would like to let you know I enjoyed it.
    One of the comments to your column of which you replied to had me scratching my chin.


    "Just before Christmas last December, we went to a mall in NJ, and it really helped me to see that things aren't that bad. People were smiling, enjoying shopping. At Costco, seeing people with their carts full, long lines at the check out helps. That happens almost every day."


    This has Quentin Tarantino written all over it.
    20 Feb 2014, 06:37 PM Reply Like
  • Land of Milk and Honey
    , contributor
    Comments (5584) | Send Message


    I was on the east coast... even areas used to snow in NY had to close schools enough that they're figuring out how to make up for it.


    Small local businesses closed down on some of the snow days. North west NJ had feet of snow, where they usually don't see much more than inches or dusting. Police told me the roads were littered with cars that they were towing.


    DC was it's usual paralyzed, but areas around saw an unusual over a foot of snow... with cold weather so it didn't melt in a day or two.


    I'd be surprised if factories were running at full steam the whole time. Factories require people to show up for work. Plus not to be so distracted that they slow down production. Also if they have equipment that involves any outside storage or swapping, or fuel deliveries, or clearances on roofs for safety, or materials delivered via canceled trucks, planes & trains and so on.
    20 Feb 2014, 06:49 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6591) | Send Message
    sorry , no sarcasm intended,, for me its reality, for the bears its labeled an excuse..


    we'l see who is right . I will add that the bear story hasn't been right in quite a while,,


    why listen to them now !


    and BTW check out the weather that occurred in Jan & Feb , I believe it shows to be much worse than the pre christmas season


    as for the factories . no orders or simply less coming in or going out due to weather..


    ordered anything online in jan or feb? see that the delays due to weather have been constant.


    and many are paying the extra money to heat their houses shovel the snow and just plain get to work---- so the absolute last thing on their mind is the ordering & buying mode..


    Now lets look at what the snapback of all of this might be as the weather normalizes..
    20 Feb 2014, 07:15 PM Reply Like
  • Fear & Greed Trader
    , contributor
    Comments (6591) | Send Message
    great points


    20 Feb 2014, 07:15 PM Reply Like
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