"Severe winter weather contributes to weak business activity," says the Philadelphia Fed, leading off its business outlook survey for February.
The headline number of -6.3 fell from 9.4 in January and is the first negative print in nine months. New Orders fell to -5.2 from 5.1. Shipments plunged to -9.9 from 12.1. Delivery Times -10.6 from -2.8. Prices paid 35.3 vs. 18.7.
Asked about the state of underlying demand, more than 45% said it was increasing, while 19% said it was decreasing.
Optimism remains about the next six months, with the future general activity index rising 5.8 points to 40.2.
The Treasury market is buying the bad weather excuse, with prices remaining lower and yields higher. TLT -0.2% and the 10-year yield up a basis point at 2.75%.