TD values BBM at $800M after Facebook/WhatsApp. Tencent/Naver sell off.


TD Securities has doubled its estimated valuation for BBM to $800M following the Facebook/WhatsApp deal, and raised its BlackBerry (BBRY +5.5%) PT to $10.50 from $9.50.

TD observes Facebook is paying $42/user for WhatsApp ($19B for 450M MAUs), and that assigning a similar multiple to BBM's 80M MAUs would make the business worth $3.36B ($6.41/share). But (while believing the deal highlights the value of messaging platforms) it doesn't think BBM and WhatsApp's valuations are "really comparable," given the latter's smaller scale.

Wells Fargo notes another messaging platform, Viber, was recently sold at a price of $8.57/user ($900M for 105M MAUs), and is skeptical BlackBerry will try to sell BBM rather than monetize it.

While BlackBerry rallies on account of the deal, WhatsApp rivals Tencent (TCEHY -3.2%) and Naver (NHNCF -8.1%) have sold off overseas on worries about tougher competition. Tencent's WeChat is the dominant mobile messaging platform in China, and Naver's Line rules the roost in Japan.

Yesterday: BlackBerry rises AH due to Facebook/WhatsApp

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Comments (32)
  • Arduino_RaspberryPi
    , contributor
    Comments (376) | Send Message
     
    800 m 1/25 of Whatsapp. Lol. my new expedition is worth 400 dollars.
    20 Feb 2014, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Philip Marlowe
    , contributor
    Comments (1538) | Send Message
     
    Great, now analysts will start assigning sky high values to all kinds of free services based on that $42 per user metric.
    20 Feb 2014, 01:41 PM Reply Like
  • Cliff Hilton
    , contributor
    Comments (2663) | Send Message
     
    That's not analysis, that's follow the leader.

     

    ..."it doesn't THINK BBM and WhatsApp valuations are really comparable...."

     

    I totally agree, BBM is more valuable.
    20 Feb 2014, 02:09 PM Reply Like
  • David653
    , contributor
    Comments (4713) | Send Message
     
    BBM is a stand alone messaging platform and now that Whatsup is going to be a part of Facebook, just increased its value a hundred fold. I hate to say it but this merger lessoned the value of BBM by a large margin. I am very surprised that investor could possibly think that this would make Blackberry's BBM more valuable. mobile device users are going to flock to Facebooks new messaging app (Whatsup) in droves.
    20 Feb 2014, 02:47 PM Reply Like
  • gwynfryn
    , contributor
    Comments (6445) | Send Message
     
    If so, it should be a lesson well learned...
    21 Feb 2014, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • SivBum
    , contributor
    Comments (2694) | Send Message
     
    Replace /user with /eyeball and replace valuation with speculations. Viola, tech bubble all over again.
    20 Feb 2014, 02:12 PM Reply Like
  • Blue Corn Investments
    , contributor
    Comments (477) | Send Message
     
    John Chen is going to drop a bomb between now and March earnings. Count on it.
    20 Feb 2014, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • Mr. Durden
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    Wishful thinking..?
    20 Feb 2014, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • Blue Corn Investments
    , contributor
    Comments (477) | Send Message
     
    Never bet against John Chen.
    20 Feb 2014, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • Mr. Durden
    , contributor
    Comments (25) | Send Message
     
    Are you expecting him to completely turn this around or package it up and sell it to the highest bidder?
    20 Feb 2014, 02:56 PM Reply Like
  • Blue Corn Investments
    , contributor
    Comments (477) | Send Message
     
    Turn around with stock appreciation unless some white swan comes in and makes an offer he can't refuse.

     

    Airwatch, Whatsapp, what's next?

     

    These are building blocks that will in the next 6 months demonstrate the viability and value of BBRY.
    20 Feb 2014, 03:14 PM Reply Like
  • john001
    , contributor
    Comments (1167) | Send Message
     
    I just hope its not an F-bomb. He is making the right moves.
    20 Feb 2014, 07:07 PM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (12927) | Send Message
     
    @R.S. Analytics

     

    "Airwatch, Whatsapp, what's next?

     

    These are building blocks that will in the next 6 months demonstrate the viability and value of BBRY."

     

    I would agree with this suggestion had BlackBerry not already been for sale for $9 and both of these companies took a pass on BlackBerry and her offerings.
    22 Feb 2014, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • tiger8896
    , contributor
    Comments (719) | Send Message
     
    BBRY stock has had a pretty muted reaction today to the FB deal. Stock is up a 40 cents on slightly above average volume. Maybe this analyst is right about the modest valuation of BBM, the stock market is not valuing BBM to the moon today.
    20 Feb 2014, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • David653
    , contributor
    Comments (4713) | Send Message
     
    I think investor now realize that Whatsup just became even more popular, and does not help the popularity of BBM one bit.
    20 Feb 2014, 02:49 PM Reply Like
  • ATInsider
    , contributor
    Comments (424) | Send Message
     
    Absolutely not. There's still many missing information regarding BBM. We haven't heard subscriber numbers in a while. I believe there will be more news (Positive) in its upcoming quarterly financial.

     

    The last thing John Chen wants to do is spill the beans too soon. Looking forward to the March 2014 Quarter.
    21 Feb 2014, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (12927) | Send Message
     
    "Looking forward to the March 2014 Quarter."

     

    Me too ^.^
    22 Feb 2014, 12:57 PM Reply Like
  • abigchocoholic
    , contributor
    Comments (332) | Send Message
     
    Facebook is worth about 150b today so myspace is worth about 5b today.

     

    A guy in my town won the lotto so my $1 lotto ticket is with about $50,000 because it might win too.

     

    There was a guy who bought a tea cup at a garage sale for $1 that turned out to be worth 1m at auction so I'm putting each of my teacups up for sale at $400 a piece in case someone wants to anticipate one of them being bringing 1m at auction.

     

    See, I can do it too.
    20 Feb 2014, 02:42 PM Reply Like
  • bud zeedee
    , contributor
    Comments (620) | Send Message
     
    Just not very well.
    20 Feb 2014, 03:36 PM Reply Like
  • Blue Corn Investments
    , contributor
    Comments (477) | Send Message
     
    Your business, website, applications, etc...are worth what a company will pay for it. Who cares what happens a few years down the road? We can all look back at bad buys...so what. At the time they made a lot of people a lot of money.

     

    The tide is rising and all boats are rising with it. BBRY's full value will be unlocked and you couldn't have a better gentleman to turn the key for you than John Chen.

     

    1. He is rich.
    2. He didn't need to do this.
    3. He had done this before.
    4. Cut the chaff and keep the wheat - that is what you will see.
    20 Feb 2014, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • iBBB
    , contributor
    Comments (150) | Send Message
     
    Facebook could have bought BB outright for about 5 bil and in addition to getting (what BBrs are screaming) the best Text App, but also (what BBrs are screaming), the best phone (Z30) and (what BBrs are screaming), the best enterprise with unlimited cash potential and the best OS (what BBrs are screaming) in QNX and (what BBrs are screaming) the gazillion cars it will be running.

     

    All this at a 1/4 of the price they just payed for a text app.....Amazing how only BB diehards see these things.
    20 Feb 2014, 10:13 PM Reply Like
  • iBBB
    , contributor
    Comments (150) | Send Message
     
    The problem is there is no chaff or wheat. Question for the all knowledgeable BBrs?

     

    How many Z30s have been sold to date?
    How many BES10 have been bought (Not in Trial...Confirmed)
    How many iOS and Android owners use BBM regularly (my guess is none).

     

    We all know how many iphones sold last quarter...same for S4's
    20 Feb 2014, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • ATInsider
    , contributor
    Comments (424) | Send Message
     
    "Facebook could have bought BB outright for about 5 bil"
    BBRY is worth "A Lot" more than $5B. More like $50+ per share MINIMUM.
    21 Feb 2014, 08:14 AM Reply Like
  • Philberg
    , contributor
    Comments (108) | Send Message
     
    For me it's really hard to understand how WhatsApp can become MORE popular, as I've never heard of anything of comparable quality. I don't like Viber too much, I have no belief in BBM, Threema might win users but Tencent/WeChat really shouldn't fear rising competition... what changes actually? for users nothing.... except that they feel more insecure than before... In fact, in discussions today all over the web I read WeChat over and over again, preferred from Western countries user. That really surprised me, but in fact, why not? As far as I heard WeChat is superior to WhatsApp in terms of functionality.

     

    The question is: Who tells us, any other communication service does NOT sell the user data? Maybe services like Threema are the only alternative, but there you'll miss some functionality yet...
    20 Feb 2014, 03:18 PM Reply Like
  • BlurredLines
    , contributor
    Comments (118) | Send Message
     
    BBM --800 mln
    Whatsapp - 16 bln.Nobody wants to touch BBRY staff even if is dirt cheap .
    20 Feb 2014, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • rmiers1
    , contributor
    Comments (53) | Send Message
     
    Big difference is the war on privacy. Goog want to know and have a say who, what, and how you are doing anything. Blackberry is the opposite. You can't hear or see what I am doing. It is mine, not yours or theirs.
    Blackberry does not fit with their plans.
    Blackberry must stand on it's own,
    21 Feb 2014, 01:15 AM Reply Like
  • gwynfryn
    , contributor
    Comments (6445) | Send Message
     
    Didn't Madonna sing that one?
    21 Feb 2014, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (12927) | Send Message
     
    Speaking about the war on privacy, ...

     

    Bangladesh Operators Ordered to Stop BlackBerry Services http://bit.ly/1fjn4nh
    22 Feb 2014, 01:04 PM Reply Like
  • 4121
    , contributor
    Comments (248) | Send Message
     
    I think I read somewhere recently that Whatsapp does receives advertising revenue it places on its service, and that was sold for 32 times revenues. BBM, at least for now, does not advertise. My gut tells me they won't do so in the future, either. So the Whatsapp and BBM businesses are very different, making it hard to project the value of BBM off of Whatsapp. Would welcome comments on this subject.
    21 Feb 2014, 03:43 PM Reply Like
  • Philberg
    , contributor
    Comments (108) | Send Message
     
    and furthermore, whatsapp charges a fee of 1€ or so per year, with users willing to pay that, there's even the option to pay years in advance.
    bbm doesn't have a fee right?
    21 Feb 2014, 04:23 PM Reply Like
  • gwynfryn
    , contributor
    Comments (6445) | Send Message
     
    Maybe they should, Ph; even with a nominal fee, it still encourages more use of the system...
    22 Feb 2014, 09:29 AM Reply Like
  • KIA Investment Research
    , contributor
    Comments (12927) | Send Message
     
    Phil,

     

    I can almost guarantee that the $.99 per year charge for WhatsApp will be dismissed with the new Facebook deal.
    22 Feb 2014, 01:06 PM Reply Like
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