Treasurys gain after home price numbers

"The strongest part of the recovery in home values may be over," says S&P's David Blitzer following the latest Case-Shiller numbers from his group. He notes prices in Phoenix fell in December after 26 consecutive months of gains, Sunbelt cities saw lower annual rates of growth, and the six cities at the top of the list in annual growth - Las Vegas, San Francisco, L.A., Atlanta, San Diego, and Detroit - saw rates decline.

“Recent economic reports suggest a bleaker picture for housing," he adds, acknowledging the cold weather, but also reminding about the effect of higher home prices and interest rates.

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Treasury yields slip a couple of basis points following the softish report, with the 10-year yield now at 2.72%. TLT +0.5%, TBT -1%.

Homebuilder ETFs: XHB, ITB.

Earlier: Toll Brothers reports light FQ1 revenue

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Comments (9)
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (11240) | Send Message
    The all time high for median existing home prices will be exceeded in the next three years....the all time high for the S&P Case Shiller 20 Index will not be exceeded in the next three years....
    25 Feb 2014, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • Lakeaffect
    , contributor
    Comments (1481) | Send Message
    BBro, are you anticipating the housing mix to move toward higher end?
    BTW, I enjoy your riddles.
    25 Feb 2014, 09:24 AM Reply Like
  • mobyss
    , contributor
    Comments (2653) | Send Message
    Next three years?


    There is still a lot more inventory to work off, and foreclosures have risen substantially again as banks finally start working through the backlog.


    It will take another rate increase/decrease cycle to really bump house prices. As mortgage rates rise back to 7 or 8%, prices will flatten with growth equal to inflation at best. Then, as rates drop, prices will move upward as "the monthly payment stays the same". I give this cycle about 6-7 years from now.
    25 Feb 2014, 10:47 AM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (4504) | Send Message
    J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) just announced another 6,000 mortgage jobs cuts in addition to the 13,000 to 15,000 cuts announced a year ago
    25 Feb 2014, 10:13 AM Reply Like
  • Brian Bobbitt
    , contributor
    Comments (2087) | Send Message
    Has anyone noticed the weather across most of the country? Do you suppose it may have something to do with a drop in housing starts? Do you suppose it may get kick-started again when weather begins to moderate? After the 'Gore Effect' goes away, our weather, as usual, will change.
    Geezo, why do you make it so hard? [You, being everyone out there.]
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    JPMorgan is cutting mtg people because more and more people are being replace by computers. All industry is cutting jobs, or haven't you noticed? There are jobs being lost which will never come back. Remember the coalman on the trains. The unions bought them a few years of sitting in the cab whittling, but now there are none. This is called progress. Progress does not discriminate, if you're in the way, you're OUT!
    25 Feb 2014, 10:56 AM Reply Like
  • pollyserial
    , contributor
    Comments (1113) | Send Message
    right, the weather. which is why the housing markets in the west (where we are having an unseasonably sunny winter, with drought conditions) are the ones doing the worst. come on, people!
    25 Feb 2014, 11:05 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (11240) | Send Message
    "All industry is cutting jobs, or haven't you noticed?' No they aren't...geez
    25 Feb 2014, 12:37 PM Reply Like
  • quabbin
    , contributor
    Comments (127) | Send Message
    In the Northeast we frame all year if we can.
    Not much going on outside 495 and I hear inside 495 isn't so hot either.
    25 Feb 2014, 05:51 PM Reply Like
  • Eudaimonia
    , contributor
    Comments (952) | Send Message
    Housing prices up BUBBLE... Housing prices down CRASH.


    I think its neither.
    25 Feb 2014, 11:20 AM Reply Like
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