With bank capital levels really no longer in question, don't expect any big pops in the banks surrounding the stress tests and CCAR results, says Citi in its "2014 CCAR Playbook." If anything - given that the stress tests are supposedly tougher this year - the risk to banks could be on the downside.
The team expects the stress test results - which looks at bank balance sheets under different scenarios - sometime around March 7 and the CCAR results - on which the Fed approves/disapproves capital return plans - about a week later.
Look for modestly higher average gross payout ratios of 62% vs. 55% last year. Individual banks: BAC 11% dividend (payout ratio) + 32% buyback for 43%; BBT 33% dividend +19% buyback; FITB 32% dividend + 37% buyback; JPM 27% dividend + 18% buyback; WFC 28% dividend + 43% buyback; GS 14% dividend + 78% buyback for an industry-leading payout ratio of 91%; MTB 34% dividend + 0% buyback; MS 17% dividend + 36% buyback; PNC 31% dividend + 49% buyback; USB 30% dividend +46% buyback.