Medivation hit by soft Xtandi guidance; subsequent downgrades

U.S. net sales are expected at $500M-$535M in 2014 vs. $392.4M for 2013.

Downgrading from Buy to Hold with PT reduced to $80 from $89, Jefferies Biren Amin says, "The revenue guidance implies very modest Xtandi growth in the post-chemo market with little contribution from off-label pre-chemo until the anticipated approval in at end of Q3."

Xtandi is now on a very different trajectory than previously thought, suggesting shares are about 30% overvalued, says Cowen, cutting to Underperform with $56 price target.

A material disappointment to investors who had become convinced Xtandi's revenue growth would accelerate after Prevail, says Bernstein.

MDVN -10.6% premarket

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Comments (1)
  • 17208242
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    I don't believe that these valuations are taking into consideration acquisition or in-licensing that may occur between now and the end of 3Q. It should be no surprise to investors that urologist do not write off label and hence pre-chemo use will not be significant until approval. Medivation has been saying this all along. There is also the possibility that Medivation may be an acquisition target for larger companies - JNJ or others.
    28 Feb 2014, 09:04 AM Reply Like
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