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Recent ADP job gains revised lower, but others pushed higher

  • Today's ADP jobs release (+139K in February vs. 150K expectations) is notable for major revisions to previous numbers, with the most recent months revised sharply lower as those months further back are revised significantly higher.
  • Originally reported as a gain of 175K, January is cut to 127K.
  • December cut to 191K from 227K, November raised to 245K from 215K, October to 196K from 130K, September to 215K from 166K.
  • Treasury prices briefly popped higher on release of the weakish print, but have returned to their previous level, the 10-year yield up one basis point at 2.71%. TLT -0.1%, TBT +0.2% premarket
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Comments (13)
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10154) | Send Message
     
    Year over year change is 2.165 million...no recession on the horizon...

     

    As a reference the original number reported for December 2013 was 114.776 million...that number for December 2013 has been revised to 115.577 million
    5 Mar 2014, 08:30 AM Reply Like
  • ant21b
    , contributor
    Comments (844) | Send Message
     
    Under Ronald Reagan in the 1980s we were creating 1 million jobs per month. 2 million jobs in a year are awful numbers.
    5 Mar 2014, 08:50 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10154) | Send Message
     
    The cellphone was nowhere to be seen in the 1980's..in September 1983
    1 million jobs were created...GDP per employee was 36,000...today it is 118,000 per employee...2 completely different worlds....

     

    P.S. Political focus takes an investor off his game....
    5 Mar 2014, 08:57 AM Reply Like
  • optionsexpert
    , contributor
    Comments (297) | Send Message
     
    Seriously... why would you even make a comment like this. Do you know what technology is? A job killer.
    5 Mar 2014, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • bigbear4511
    , contributor
    Comments (287) | Send Message
     
    Technology was chisel and slate back then. Things are a lot more automated now and may jobs are overseas. Not to mention he tripled the debt building weapons to stockpile.
    5 Mar 2014, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • d.chavo
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
     
    Recession is clearly on the horizon unless the taper gets stopped. By the way.. how are those ADP jobs so off in the revision? Whose doing the count? 4th graders? Like I said before the polls and surveys from ADP, HSBC, Bloomberg Comfort etc. are never accurate. They reflect whatever agenda there being paid to reflect. Say "hello to your bosses in the white house for me".
    6 Mar 2014, 01:04 AM Reply Like
  • Lakeaffect
    , contributor
    Comments (1138) | Send Message
     
    File 13
    5 Mar 2014, 08:34 AM Reply Like
  • Ocean Man
    , contributor
    Comments (582) | Send Message
     
    If the revisions swing by such large amounts months later, why should we pay any attention to today's number?
    5 Mar 2014, 08:35 AM Reply Like
  • bbro
    , contributor
    Comments (10154) | Send Message
     
    Look at year over year changes with a specific eye towards momentum changes
    5 Mar 2014, 08:37 AM Reply Like
  • quinnman
    , contributor
    Comments (117) | Send Message
     
    Which is declining quickly over last four months....must be the weather
    5 Mar 2014, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • PeakOiler
    , contributor
    Comments (298) | Send Message
     
    ADP - "Any Data Point" or "All DePends".
    5 Mar 2014, 08:54 AM Reply Like
  • Black Gold
    , contributor
    Comments (682) | Send Message
     
    139k doesn't even cover population growth...
    5 Mar 2014, 10:27 AM Reply Like
  • czkew
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    As other commenters have noted I don't understand the revisions to the ADP numbers. The detailed spec for this number says nothing about revisions, but it does say the raw input is payrolls processed by ADP. It also says that the goal of their data massage is to accurately predict the final BLS number. I would think that ADP would have a pretty good idea how many payroll checks they processed in a month, but maybe not.
    5 Mar 2014, 03:28 PM Reply Like
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