Precious metals outlook boosted at Nomura

"Instead of a multi-year downtrend, with disinvestment putting pressure on prices over time, many of the variables that drive gold prices (lower in 2013) have already reset to an extent," says Nomura, boosting its gold target to $1,335 this year (it's at $1,338 right now) and $1,460 in 2015 from $1,138 and $1,200, respectively. Silver's target is raised to $21.52 from $16.25 (silver's at $21.21 right now).

ETF outflows are slowing, speculative short positions have cooled, and producers are cutting back new projects. "Long-term demand support from Asian nominal income growth, an evolving post-QE macroeconomic environment and lower disinvestment potential move our gold equilibrium model to now expect price increases over the next three years."

The team also has a variant take on what might have caused last year's big decline in price, attributing it maybe to an arbitrage opportunity between Chinese and London pricing. "The potential for such negative supply swings has far less potential impact than in late 2012."

Last week: Gold ETF sees inflow in February.


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Comments (11)
  • DeepValueLover
    , contributor
    Comments (11221) | Send Message
    Funny how quick these "analysts" change their tune.


    If gold drops $300 in the next two months they will switch again.


    5 Mar 2014, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • tunaman4u2
    , contributor
    Comments (3489) | Send Message
    Their price target for silver is 30c higher than it is now... how bullish of you!
    5 Mar 2014, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Johnny b 1889
    , contributor
    Comments (20) | Send Message
    More like how bull shit of
    5 Mar 2014, 03:34 PM Reply Like
  • Brian Bobbitt
    , contributor
    Comments (2084) | Send Message
    Where in the stratosphere do these articles come from, and why are they allowed and how to they get past the editors. I have fought tooth and nail to get articles published, following all the rules, and get turned down to the point of exhaustion.
    This is why I have not attempted another article. Hoping folks read my comments and get my message across via that bridge.
    This is a fine article. [Don't dare say anything negative or I get banned]
    Capt. Brian
    The Lost Navigator
    [I did not write this]
    5 Mar 2014, 03:51 PM Reply Like
  • John Leszar
    , contributor
    Comments (293) | Send Message
    Captain. I read everything you write, TWICE. Thanks for your words of wisdom. I appreciate them very much.
    5 Mar 2014, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • phdinsuntanning
    , contributor
    Comments (1349) | Send Message
    Capt. keep showing us the lighthouse for many years to come.
    I do not miss one of your valuable comments.
    5 Mar 2014, 04:47 PM Reply Like
  • james.
    , contributor
    Comments (1342) | Send Message
    Welcome to the party Nomura. However, Nomura is still well behind the curve. Gold is now on its 3rd Leg Up taking it to new all-time highs of $2700 per oz in May 2015; Gold price completed a normal Buill Market correction on Semilog Paper in 2013, with this ongoing Gold Bull Market beginning at $253 per oz circa 2000. Look to it Nomura , and all ! March 5, 2014 at 3:57 pm PST.
    5 Mar 2014, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Piero A.
    , contributor
    Comments (333) | Send Message
    Making a call after the move has been made shows nothing other than the incompetency of Nomura.
    5 Mar 2014, 09:24 PM Reply Like
  • Dorleans
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
    To me, it is very simple; without any proof other than the rebuff to Germany from the United States when they asked for their Gold, I tend to think the U.S.A. has been dumping gold to hold prices down, and that is largely finished as they are probably about out. Unless of course they pull a FDR and seize it all back (don't rule it out). Net, there are no natural sellers, and with mining costs for gold around $1200; the reader will notice that acted as strong support on several occasions, I see great risk/reward medium and long-term. Short-term, this market reminds me of late 1999 when REITs and electric utilities and then finally major Dow stocks were dumped wholsesale for .coms.
    6 Mar 2014, 04:35 AM Reply Like
  • 6151621
    , contributor
    Comments (1172) | Send Message
    A useful reminder how useless to follow analysts. Better trade ahead of them and use them as sentiment confirm action.
    6 Mar 2014, 01:50 PM Reply Like
  • citizentod
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
    This outlook is ridiculous. Theyve proven that they have no idea by changing the target on silver from 16 to 21...when its already 21. Its like picking the winner of the monday night game...on tuesday morning. Worthless!
    7 Mar 2014, 01:39 AM Reply Like
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