Seeking Alpha

Digging into K-Cup data

  • K-Cup data from IRI gives a look at which coffee companies are showing the most momentum.
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) is the market leader at 20% share, a tally which doesn't include partner brands such as Donut House (6%) or Revv (1%). Starbucks (SBUX) claims 13% and Folgers (SJM) is at 12% share.
  • On a unit growth sales basis, Starbucks was up 47% Y/Y (period ending 1/26/14) to power past Green Mountain's 29% pace and Folgers at 22%.
  • Private labels saw K-Cup unit growth of 471% as new brands emerged over the last year following patent freedom.
Comments (14)
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (1898) | Send Message
     
    The hullabaloo about GMCR has finally begun to dissipate this week. It's now down to $104.28 this morning and very soon, within a month, it will be back down to $90. So much for the hype and hoopla.
    7 Mar, 11:57 AM Reply Like
  • rvn0
    , contributor
    Comments (137) | Send Message
     
    Oh no! I bought in at $28/ share and now it's going to slide down to $90/ share. I'm devastated!
    7 Mar, 02:13 PM Reply Like
  • exp144
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    You should be devastated that you didn't see at $100+. That's a lot of money to leave on the table.
    7 Mar, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (1898) | Send Message
     
    rvn06....contrary to your sarcasm, I had been trading GMCR after its calamitous drop from its glorious heights some years ago, which went below $20 (I think), and I have been making money from its daily ups and downs since then. I heard about it from Fox Business Network when they mentioned its rapid crash, so I did my research on them and watched its movements for a couple of weeks before I decided that I CAN indeed make money from this stock (not from investing but from trading). How I decide is a trade secret which I'll take to my grave because I'm a nobody and my methods are of no interest to anyone. It's my favorite stock to make money, simply because of its wide intra-day movements. I made more money than if I had sat on my shares and did nothing with them, so go ahead and make fun of my honest comments with your dishonest remarks. Have a great weekend, my friend.
    8 Mar, 09:23 AM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (1898) | Send Message
     
    exp144....contrary to your cynicism, I had been shorting this stock as it made its way past $121, ever since it went past $90 and I had made money covering my short positions, as it came back down. I make money almost everyday with this stock. So, my friend, I didn't leave a single cent on the table. Not everyone can afford to do what I do and I don't recommend anyone to do as I do. Have a great weekend.
    8 Mar, 09:33 AM Reply Like
  • rvn0
    , contributor
    Comments (137) | Send Message
     
    @ benitus, Investors and traders are apples and oranges. Buffett has been following the exact opposite of your trading practices and he is on the Forbes 400 List. Will we be seeing you soon on the Forbes List?
    8 Mar, 11:06 PM Reply Like
  • gjc65
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
     
    Long time stock holder GMCR is expanding too fast
    7 Mar, 02:11 PM Reply Like
  • supersaverguy
    , contributor
    Comments (54) | Send Message
     
    GMCR margins are evaporating... that's going to catch up at some point...
    7 Mar, 04:07 PM Reply Like
  • Jrogers43
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    I have owned this stock for five years. I made a trip to Waterbury Vermont in 2009 and was staying at a Best Western there. In late march, the parking lot was full of cars and they were mostly sales people calling on GMC. I did not know about the company until then. When I found about it and did some research, I bought my original stock. Immediately, it jumped up and split. I sold 1/2 of my original holdings to protect my investment. I have held on to the rest and the results are history.

     

    From my view point, GMCR has morphed from a startup to a full blown industry leader. They have added Kureg, grown the brand and added world class leadership. They are a far different company now than they were when I first invested. The latest Coca Cola partnership is yet another example of continuing to stay in front of the curve. They are a solid company with innovative leadership. They will continue to grow and prosper although the crazy growth is probably behind them. They are beginning to pay dividends which is a further indication of their maturity. I look for them to be a great company for the foreseeable future. There is no indication to the contrary.
    7 Mar, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • benitus
    , contributor
    Comments (1898) | Send Message
     
    Jrogers, great job.....You did what I had done, doing due diligence and then making a decision on the play, whether up or down. No regrets. If it's any comfort, this company is indeed here to stay. My only beef is that it went up too much, too fast, which is why I expect it to come back down and consolidate its position before moving forward again, unless something else develops that will drive it one way or the other. Live long and prosper, my friend. God bless.
    8 Mar, 09:39 AM Reply Like
  • Just Saying IMO
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    this stock is all smoke and mirrors. They are bullies with little concern about the consumer
    7 Mar, 04:34 PM Reply Like
  • RAP77
    , contributor
    Comments (348) | Send Message
     
    GMCR is fundamentally a worthless enterprise. It depends on how it's viewed.

     

    Do a little research and you'll find that plastics cost us. All plastics emit BPA, an endocrine disrupter, especially when they're heated. Endocrine disrupters are responsible for a host of ailments that cost the health care system huge dollars.

     

    Drink three or four GMCR cups per day, microwave a couple of meals in plastic containers daily and people put their health at risk. But it's a long process so no one notices.

     

    The latest reports indicate that so-called BPA free plastics are no better. It's all sales hype by the plastics industry which does several hundred billion dollars per year.

     

    The World Health Organization just released a report estimating that in 20 years, cancer rates will rise by 70%. Considering that as it is nearly one third of Americans will get some form of cancer, by the 2030s half of Americans will get cancer at some point in their life.

     

    Who pays for the disposal of all those plastic cups? Most go to landfills.

     

    This is just part of due diligence. Once people realize that drinking K-cup coffees puts their long term health at risk and has environmental costs that are shifted onto taxpayers, I think the stock will do very poorly.
    7 Mar, 05:09 PM Reply Like
  • aminorex
    , contributor
    Comments (61) | Send Message
     
    Yeah because Philip Morris could never make money selling cigarettes.
    8 Mar, 05:15 AM Reply Like
  • Just Saying IMO
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    Nice Lawsuit dropped by Rogers on GMCR the day after GMCR lost its appeal in Federal court for "infringement"
    13 Mar, 07:30 PM Reply Like
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