IDC cuts 2014 tablet forecast; ASP decline expected to narrow


Citing "slowing consumer purchases" amid high penetration rates in mature markets, IDC now forecasts tablet shipments will grow 19.4% in 2014 (to 260.9M units), down from a prior estimate of 22% (271M units).

Tablet growth steadily slowed in 2014: Shipments rose an estimated 142% in Q1, but just 28% in Q4. IDC puts full-year growth at 52%.

Two silver linings for high-end/enterprise leader Apple (AAPL - 33.8% Q4 share): 1) ASPs are only expected to drop 3.6% in 2014, after falling 14.6% in 2013, as more consumers embrace "higher-end devices." 2) Commercial buyers are expected to account for 14% of shipments, up from 11% in 2013.

IDC also thinks Windows (MSFT) tablets, struggling to gain a strong consumer foothold, will take over a quarter of the commercial segment thanks to rising convertible adoption.

The revised forecast still puts tablet sales within striking distance of eclipsing PC sales: IDC expects PC shipments to drop 6% this year to 295.9M. Smartphone shipments are expected to grow 19% to 1.2B.

Major tablet OEMs (besides Apple): SSNLF, LNVGY, AKCPF

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Comments (22)
  • jjkiam
    , contributor
    Comments (393) | Send Message
     
    These new forecasts are simply a reflection of a product reaching a more mature state. Tablets are now the preference for most consumers including Enterprise and this is GOOD news for Apple! Nothing from MSFT or Samsung is poised to replace the IPad in any meaningful manner! The truth is that people love their IPads,ESP the IPad Air!
    7 Mar 2014, 07:19 PM Reply Like
  • wil3714
    , contributor
    Comments (2208) | Send Message
     
    IPad decline is starting, how is lower sales going to help adoption?

     

    "Tablets are now the preference for most consumers including Enterprise and this is GOOD news for Apple!"

     

    How is it used for the enterprise?
    7 Mar 2014, 07:27 PM Reply Like
  • dmarilley
    , contributor
    Comments (661) | Send Message
     
    Love them enough to keep, like keeping a car 30 years. Need to factor lack of repeat buying frequency into AAPL earnings model.
    7 Mar 2014, 11:42 PM Reply Like
  • David at Imperial Beach
    , contributor
    Comments (4385) | Send Message
     
    Not sure "convertibles" are going to be a very significant market segment. See http://bit.ly/NIo092
    8 Mar 2014, 12:00 AM Reply Like
  • Ruffdog
    , contributor
    Comments (2722) | Send Message
     
    I have trouble running excel on an ipad. Also, can someone show me how to see my bosses powerpoint presentation on an ipad?
    8 Mar 2014, 09:36 AM Reply Like
  • 6684001
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    I think in some industries convertibles (2 in 1's) will be extremely prevalent and will be windows based, of course. But, dmarilley is correct, people/businesses don't have to replace their ipads with new models of the ipad there are only slight changes being made that just don't matter. (Curse of their high quality) However, for those that do not own a tablet (far smaller segment) I believe that the convertibles (now being a true 2 in 1 product) will take some market share from Apple's tables and laptops. Apple used to have no competition to their high-end products, those days are over having lost their monopoly on quality.
    8 Mar 2014, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • 6684001
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    Tech enthusiast and student of the market/economy.
    8 Mar 2014, 10:38 AM Reply Like
  • DanoX
    , contributor
    Comments (3172) | Send Message
     
    Sadly misinformed, Apple is in Business at a higher level with portable mobile devices, Samsung, Google, Microsoft can't match, in fact Microsoft is lucky Apple isn't bigger in business. iPhones and iPads are at the front lines of use.

     

    Some of the larger companies are writing their own software to be used on iPads and iPhones, particularity colleges, teaching hospitals, and IT departments at some of the large companies.

     

    http://bit.ly/155f96E
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    8 Mar 2014, 03:29 PM Reply Like
  • curreyr
    , contributor
    Comments (730) | Send Message
     
    Ruffdog,
    Take a look at HopTo ...
    8 Mar 2014, 03:48 PM Reply Like
  • wil3714
    , contributor
    Comments (2208) | Send Message
     
    IPads are just boring now, convertibles continue to come out like the Helix, XPS 12, Yoga etc. Its basically best of both worlds with windows and tablet features
    8 Mar 2014, 05:48 PM Reply Like
  • wil3714
    , contributor
    Comments (2208) | Send Message
     
    I dont buy this Apple enterprise idea since no one know how to program or develop on Linux. Its the same argument over and over again.
    8 Mar 2014, 05:52 PM Reply Like
  • King Rat
    , contributor
    Comments (1357) | Send Message
     
    Actually this is not good news for Apple as commoditization follows saturation meaning continued falling ASPs and profit margins.
    As long as Apple stubbornly refuses to release real iOS products anything but the high end, they are dooming themselves to slip into a niche. The only time Apple ever avoided falling into a niche was when Apple released iPod Minis, Nanos, and Shuffles. When Apple did that they actually boosted sales of high end iPods thus avoiding any cannibalization. Every other innovative product line Apple ever released, they avoided serving the largest markets and eventually suffered.
    7 Mar 2014, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • TimmiesRegular
    , contributor
    Comments (3058) | Send Message
     
    @King Rat - iPods are barely a blip on Apple revenue, so it doesn't matter how many models you have if the market changes and you can get a multifunction device that completely eliminates the need for an iPod. Apple understands the market very well.

     

    I'm pretty sure that Apple has a plan to go down market, but won't do it until they have milked the high end. They will only do this in $100 increments slowly pushing any profit out of the rest of industry. They will never go cheap and will only go down if growth stalls. It's not about market share, it's about profit share and long term customer satisfaction.
    7 Mar 2014, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • Jack Baker
    , contributor
    Comments (1205) | Send Message
     
    Are people still listening to IDC?
    7 Mar 2014, 08:13 PM Reply Like
  • dmarilley
    , contributor
    Comments (661) | Send Message
     
    Evidently not.
    7 Mar 2014, 11:43 PM Reply Like
  • Riverrun
    , contributor
    Comments (263) | Send Message
     
    More nosie...just watch the net income...
    7 Mar 2014, 08:30 PM Reply Like
  • marklihsu
    , contributor
    Comments (480) | Send Message
     
    Yeah I believe it was lower compared to the same quarter last year.
    8 Mar 2014, 01:12 AM Reply Like
  • dmarilley
    , contributor
    Comments (661) | Send Message
     
    That is what institutional sellers of AAPL are doing.
    7 Mar 2014, 11:44 PM Reply Like
  • june1234
    , contributor
    Comments (3797) | Send Message
     
    a 19.4% growth demand is a growth rate most business models can only dream of.
    8 Mar 2014, 02:45 AM Reply Like
  • FAT BANKER
    , contributor
    Comments (1078) | Send Message
     
    RE june1234. Comment 1790

     

    "a 19.4% growth demand is a growth rate most business models can only dream of."

     

    Yes agreed, but most people commenting on this site are neither Apple users
    nor Apple share holders. It's all envious hot air !
    8 Mar 2014, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • FAT BANKER
    , contributor
    Comments (1078) | Send Message
     
    RE docs trading. Comment 50

     

    Gambler you are the problem not the solution!
    8 Mar 2014, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • fancy.wei@kornerstonemateri...
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    about growth rate of 2014 tablet:
    IDC now forecasts tablet shipments will grow 19.4% in 2014 (to 260.9M units)
    IDC puts full-year growth at 52%.

     

    What is the difference between 19.4% and 52%?which one is right?
    Who can help to verify?
    10 Mar 2014, 06:44 AM Reply Like
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