Seeking Alpha

3D printing stocks fall on Barron's piece

  • A weekend column titled "Beware 3-D Printing!" questions industry valuations, and suggests 3D Systems (DDD -4.2% premarket) could drop 80%.
  • The column highlights Whitney Tilson's critique of 3D Systems and the company's recent warning, argues 3D printing/additive manufacturing "remains slow and cumbersome," and notes the presence of rivals such as printing services firm Shapeways and leading metal printer maker EOS.
  • Barron's suggests software vendors Autodesk (ADSK) and Dassault (DASTY) are a better way to play the trend (ed: 3D printing use cases account for only a fraction of each company's sales), and notes the former's efforts to automate design work by leveraging real-life info. "The goal is for a designer to input a function, letting the computer dictate the most efficient design."
  • SSYS -3.1%. XONE -3.3%. VJET -1.7%.
Comments (31)
  • Esekla
    , contributor
    Comments (2266) | Send Message
     
    I agree with them about DDD, and to a lesser extent VJET. The companies mentioned here have very different technology and approaches to the market, though, as recent behavior shows:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    10 Mar, 09:35 AM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (4011) | Send Message
     
    VJET? There's an interesting one: Voxeljet made loans to customers to fund purchases, and in one case, was paid in barter.

     

    Even so, revenue is dismal, about 5 million EUR per Q. Other 3D Competitors at least have more meaningful revenue.

     

    I think most of the sector is out of whack valuation-wise.
    10 Mar, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Welt
    , contributor
    Comments (110) | Send Message
     
    VJET's CFO stated they have only helped finance 3 printers over the entirety of voxeljet's existence and only 1 in the most recent quarter. The citron report was incorrect.
    10 Mar, 12:10 PM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (4011) | Send Message
     
    So? Total revenue is at below 5 million EUR / quarter so they didn't sell a lot of printers in total.
    10 Mar, 12:28 PM Reply Like
  • Welt
    , contributor
    Comments (110) | Send Message
     
    All I was doing was correcting you about financing. I said nothing about revenues. I'm well aware they sell at a huge P/S ratio.

     

    Your response is irrelevant....
    10 Mar, 12:31 PM Reply Like
  • Tales From The Future
    , contributor
    Comments (4011) | Send Message
     
    Tell me how many printers they sold per Q?

     

    It's not like the sold thousands of printers, Citron Research cited from SEC material:

     

    "The Company sold three new 3D printers in the third quarter of 2013 compared to two used 3D printers in last year’s third quarter. "

     

    http://1.usa.gov/1cP5a6a

     

    That's from the official SEC doument. Emphasis: THREE printers.

     

    What's wrong here? My source is the official SEC document.
    10 Mar, 12:36 PM Reply Like
  • Welt
    , contributor
    Comments (110) | Send Message
     
    Citron report stated they financed all 3 printers which is simply untrue. Financing 1 out of 3 vs 3 out of 3 is a very big difference.

     

    I'm not stating VJET is a value play here...just saying if you are going to bash them at least bash them with correct info. Don't state, "Voxeljet made loans to customers to fund purchases, and in one case, was paid in barter" because that is a false statement.
    10 Mar, 12:41 PM Reply Like
  • Welt
    , contributor
    Comments (110) | Send Message
     
    Here's the 2/10/14 voxeljet video from Bloomberg. It's about 8 minutes long. The CFO debunks the so called "financing issue" by disclosing they have only financed 3 out of the 55 total printers since inception in 1999 (I understand that averages to roughly selling only 1 printer per quarter). Also, he makes the point that VJET selling 1 large printer is equivalent to Makerbot selling 1,200 of their largest printers. The Bloomberg interviewers in the video (who act like jerks IMO) and most people on here think they know all about VJET when in fact they do not.

     

    I'm no genius at all whatsoever, but I would like to clear up some common VJET misconceptions. I have no problem with people hating on the valuation of the stock, but the company is going to continue to innovate at an impressive clip and should be respected.

     

    http://bloom.bg/1cPbASI
    10 Mar, 01:17 PM Reply Like
  • AtonRa Partners
    , contributor
    Comments (337) | Send Message
     
    Agree as well, actually we set a $26 bear-case valuation for DDD.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

     

    Nice to see that the Barron's journalist did a copy & paste of our title "Autodesk: A Different And Safer Way To Play The 3-D Printing Revolution"
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    10 Mar, 09:47 AM Reply Like
  • newbie52
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    nonsense!
    10 Mar, 09:49 AM Reply Like
  • Dummy99
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    Vjet pushed a few 2013 contracts into 2014, so 2014 should be a better year.

     

    The printers cost millions. Most companies require financing for a purchase that large, so it's understandable that they had to make loans.

     

    I've abandoned the consumer end printing companies and moved into industrial 3D manufacturers like xone and Vjet.
    10 Mar, 10:01 AM Reply Like
  • Esekla
    , contributor
    Comments (2266) | Send Message
     
    Ok, but be aware that ExOne controls the core technology that Voxeljet uses, even though VoxelJet is the original patent assignee.

     

    See the relevant section from the VJET IPO filing with the SEC:

     

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    10 Mar, 10:14 AM Reply Like
  • Dummy99
    , contributor
    Comments (16) | Send Message
     
    Thanks. That might be good to know. It might be time to rotate out of one.
    11 Mar, 09:50 AM Reply Like
  • HoracioMateus
    , contributor
    Comments (35) | Send Message
     
    The shorts are starting to panick. They made money a while back, now they're trying to go for a second helping with another barage of "fear" tactics.
    I'm very grateful, how else could I buy on the cheap.
    10 Mar, 10:21 AM Reply Like
  • tinsley09
    , contributor
    Comments (233) | Send Message
     
    This rag is covering something that is totally outside its scope of comprehension,but the gullible and decorticate investors will panic and sell.
    10 Mar, 10:43 AM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4050) | Send Message
     
    I buy the dip AGAIN ;P - $$$$
    10 Mar, 10:59 AM Reply Like
  • User 7143901
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    Thanks for the dip
    10 Mar, 11:35 AM Reply Like
  • Darbyred
    , contributor
    Comments (98) | Send Message
     
    The Barron's article raises a few good points (software and GE's success with a nozzle), however, it is shallow, poorly researched and distorts DDD's focus, as well as the 3 D industry. The other companies (SYSS, XONE and VJET) are mentioned almost in passing. The Barron's article makes a number of conclusive, negative assertions without any foundation. This is because the Barron's writer does not appear to understand the industry his article is supposedly addressing. For example, DDD has three sizes of machines: consumer, professional and production. Depending upon the pariclar model of machine, the materials used in additive manufacturing can run from metals to ceramics. Another example, the article misses reporting the importance of taking images and replicating them, as is ongoing in the dental and medical fields on a daily basis.
    10 Mar, 11:36 AM Reply Like
  • YONSU
    , contributor
    Comments (161) | Send Message
     
    It is what Barrons does, try to move a stock with a negative article for a headline, wait a couple months and see how right or wrong they are today. Not my favorite publisher.
    10 Mar, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • movies555
    , contributor
    Comments (576) | Send Message
     
    Bought after the drop, sold in the 70's. Barrons trying to push Hedgeye's thesis of Kinder Morgan and now Tilson's thesis on 3D....I dunno, it's a little dismaying that a publication starts to feel like it's pushing cases for financial companies/managers who need to move a stock. No disrespect to Tilson, but I will say that I was a little surprised when he published his seekingalpha article that he was shorting into the drop when DDD warned.

     

    I don't have any view on DDD, but don't like that Barrons has recently started to feel a little like it's a tool for managers looking to push a thesis.
    10 Mar, 12:51 PM Reply Like
  • shiloh8
    , contributor
    Comments (4) | Send Message
     
    Barron's is always wrong. Of they say sell, buy. If they say buy, unload it as fast as you can. It's not analysis, or insight, it's pure sensationalistic journalism. If you read them and believe them on anything, you deserve the loss.
    10 Mar, 02:23 PM Reply Like
  • jackson0030
    , contributor
    Comments (7) | Send Message
     
    Back in the day -- 80's -- 90's Barrons made it's money with hit pieces (Abelson, I think, if memory serves). I had a stock blasted by Cheryl Einhorn (by any chance related to David Einhorn, the hedge fund king??). Totally a front running operation in your face! I won't touch that rag, or believe anything they print! //jackson
    10 Mar, 04:37 PM Reply Like
  • LeMarJackson
    , contributor
    Comments (117) | Send Message
     
    Tilson was dead wrong on Google! Didn't recommend it eons ago and look at the chart since inception.
    10 Mar, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • Toubz
    , contributor
    Comments (5) | Send Message
     
    Barrons did this to Priceline and Tesla last year, the pps has since doubled.These analysts and big money hedge funds do this to steer the stock in the direction they want it to go. It's a quick way to make money. They use fear tactics to wear you down to sell. All illegal games but the SEC is unable to keep up with them.Check out this article by G. Hudson,"How the big players manipulate the stock market." Jim Cramer even admitted he has done so back in the day when he traded .
    10 Mar, 05:38 PM Reply Like
  • Glenway Fripp
    , contributor
    Comments (827) | Send Message
     
    I still believe that if you are invested on the promise of home 3D printing than out should get out now! It isn't going to happen. When and if it does, Chinese knock off printers will be in the competition. Meanwhile there is this:

     

    http://bit.ly/PlvPTm

     

    Simple 3D prints on a home printer can take hours........ Materials and energy usage make parts expensive. 3D Fails aren't as simple as loosing a couple of pieces of paper. Significant amounts of time and materials go down the drain.
    10 Mar, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Stewart Gordon
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    I have difficult time believing a quality publication would quote a short as calling DDD a "dream short" and a couple of paragraphs later allow same person to suggest its correct price is 20% of its current market price. I wonder what Barrons' legal counsel or the SEC would think of that?

     

    Article is so unbalanced and negatively targeted as to be manipulative.

     

    Whonoze
    10 Mar, 10:38 PM Reply Like
  • Glenway Fripp
    , contributor
    Comments (827) | Send Message
     
    Oh really? I think it is Abraham Reichental, CEO of DDD, who is the master manipulator here, (Not Barrons), and that you have bought his snake oil! It doesn't help the stock that Obama has stopped mentioning 3D printing every time he gives a speech about the new economy and bringing back jobs to America. Maybe it is all the senators and congressmen that did the pumping and are now doing the dumping. Who Knows? Eventually Share price/ PE always comes in line with earnings; one way or another. In this case earnings aren't looking like they are going up as anticipated. Therefore the share price must go down.
    11 Mar, 11:00 AM Reply Like
  • malc9141
    , contributor
    Comments (132) | Send Message
     
    I've written elsewhere in agreement with this, not looking at numbers, but just "common sense". One, if you spot a Gravy Train, by definition you're too late. Two, no 3D printer company has a moat.

     

    But DASTY (and for all I know, ADSK) is another matter. Its not a 3D printer manufacturer. Good company, good management, hamstrung by their own product (essentially, no-one will upgrade till s/he is ready to, and that means writing off an existing asset, namely, DASTY's current product). There is a much better, more profitable (but not more costly) product ready to go but its hard to get people to jump tracks. But in time they will. Its not going from one company to a competitor, its buying a new product.
    IMO, it will happen.
    I own DASTY shares and am long on the ticker.
    11 Mar, 07:18 AM Reply Like
  • 3D Printing Investor
    , contributor
    Comments (416) | Send Message
     
    Since Barron's recommends companies with diverse revenues entering 3D printing software sales, I think $CIMT (with trailing PE of 16 and record revenue/income for 2013) now entering 3D printing software sales is a good buy here. More on my Instablog at : http://seekingalpha.co...
    12 Mar, 11:43 AM Reply Like
  • nap.jerry
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    3D printing has yet to find its niche. I'm not sure if everyone will have one but I am pretty sure their application will be widespread. Anyone that thinks differently probably thinks Capt Kirk's flip phone would never be a reality either!!!!
    14 Mar, 08:18 AM Reply Like
  • malc9141
    , contributor
    Comments (132) | Send Message
     
    No doubt you are right. I would certainly agree and its not just "everyone" - these things are already embedded in industry. My point is they are not versatile in the sense that a household one wouldn't be the model to build a mould for metal casting, or make something tiny or OTH, big.

     

    So the industry will boom, I agree. But which manufacturer do you buy into? That's my point.

     

    So I'm on the side of the "guy with superior software" to program any of the printers.
    15 Mar, 08:49 AM Reply Like
DJIA (DIA) S&P 500 (SPY)
ETF Tools
Find the right ETFs for your portfolio:
Seeking Alpha's new ETF Hub
ETF Investment Guide:
Table of Contents | One Page Summary
Read about different ETF Asset Classes:
ETF Selector

Next headline on your portfolio:

|