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Plug Power, Fuel Cell, Ballard Power see profit taking

  • High-flying fuel cell names are sputtering after two research firms downgraded Plug Power (PLUG -5.4%) earlier today; FuelCell Energy (FCEL -6.7%) and Ballard Power (BLDP -0.6%) also are lower.
  • Roth Capital thinks bookings still appear set to grow at a rate that exceeds historic levels, but much of that growth is already reflected in the stock; the firm also warns that some of PLUG's shipments could be delayed because most of its products are being shipped to customers that still have to add hydrogen infrastructure, which could take longer than expected.
  • Cowen mentioned that the broader segment was getting a little rich: "Fuel cell and hydrogen-related companies are trading in a range of 2.9-8.2x EV/2015E sales... PLUG is at the high end, consistent with 2015E sales growth of 100% (vs. 19-39% for peers)."
  • ZBB Energy (ZBB), which announced a 5.5M-share public offering at $2.25/share, is -22%.
Comments (9)
  • Doc's Trading
    , contributor
    Comments (1356) | Send Message
     
    The entire market looks tired and the trading patterns look entirely different from last year. Expect an orderly market decline with NO news to account for it over the next 3 months. Advise NOT to buy into any decline since it will go further than most people think. This goes especially for PLUG and fuel cells, NFLX, TSLA, SCTY, Biotech and even AAPL (which should outperform with a smaller decline.
    14 Mar, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • alan ljl
    , contributor
    Comments (257) | Send Message
     
    If this is considered breaking news as the tab indicates, one must ask, where have you been??
    Suggest you re-title the tab to reflect what is going on. You should call it "Pump and Dump".
    Or maybe another tab for "Day Trader's Dreams"
    These three companies were way overdue for corrections, after another 50% decline from today they'll come down to earth.
    FCEL has been between $1&$2 for the last FIVE years. There is nothing in their products or process that even remotely justifies the price movements.
    14 Mar, 08:17 PM Reply Like
  • manfredthree
    , contributor
    Comments (1955) | Send Message
     
    Bad news folks... the stocks you are shorting are going to run primarily, good or bad, off their own inflection points. With small allocations, we longs too are looking for pullbacks so we can add while waiting for the inevitable good news events. But if you are short when the good news comes, do not expect market volatility to bail you out.
    14 Mar, 09:26 PM Reply Like
  • jglr
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    manfred, stocks go down much faster than they go up (as a general, time tested rule). shorts will have plenty of time to cover on this one and, ultimately create the rally your waiting for by covering. i'm riding this thing all the way back to the nether regions from whence it came. you may want to wait a week or two before adding to your position.
    15 Mar, 01:37 AM Reply Like
  • manfredthree
    , contributor
    Comments (1955) | Send Message
     
    @jglr... We are in full agreement. How much of the spike was speculative and how much was short covering we will never know. And being a speculative stock, we know that upward and downward spikes will continue to occur from news events that confirm speculations. The worst time for shorts to cover although we expect some have. Forward, we believe the balance of actual events will be very positive. Shorts face the risk that instead of many small inflection points that contribute to a somewhat manageable rise (why short anything that has a bright future?) , one or more unexpected events can take it much higher.
    The problem we have with the CNBC stuff is that it is extremely irresponsible for pros to promote vigilante shorting of any small cap knowing the extreme dangers. We do believe in free speech, but SEC/rules set a much higher standard as they should for public media.
    15 Mar, 12:56 PM Reply Like
  • Fotonomad2
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    Cowen & Company, the nice folks who just brazenly manipulated the extreme run-up in PLUG, FCEL, etc. - and are only now back-peddling their price targets (of course, only after profiting from the 2 recent PLUG additional share offerrings - may be in for some multiple class-action lawsuits. Cowen is itself a publicly traded company, under the ticker COWN. Legal defence is expensive.
    How about shorting COWN if news of big lawsuits emerge?
    15 Mar, 01:46 AM Reply Like
  • speculative
    , contributor
    Comments (648) | Send Message
     
    The next reporting for these companies will be pivotal. Management has got their work cut out and must prove they are worth more than they are analytically valued. Andy Marsh stated they WILL be profitable in 3Q14 so his sales team needs to work around the clock from now until their 3rd Qtr window closes. Same with FCEL. They need to have at least 5 years worth of backlog and continuously add more. The projects also need to be completed at a more efficient pace while reducing cost/expenses to collect revenue and start reporting profits above estimates. Easier said than done but it can be done. Donald Trump is know for accelerated completion of projects and does not accept excuses.

     

    These CEO's are now playing in the big leagues and need to perform accordingly. You can make it all the way to third base but if you don't make it to Home plate, you don't score.
    15 Mar, 02:26 AM Reply Like
  • manfredthree
    , contributor
    Comments (1955) | Send Message
     
    How much "backlog" do you think any mega cap tech has ? Apple perhaps 5 months ? CSCO perhaps 12 months ? The only one I know of with anything resembling 5 years (and hold) is GE . And even in GE's case, we hear the constant bash that much of that business will not be profitable. OK. Let's go on to the next silly artificial bar that naysayers find convenient.
    The simple reality in PLUG's case is that most shorts do not see how the technology (forget the company) can be profitable , which sets them apart from the dozens of large and mid caps that have major investments in hydrogen and its future. In which case they would find it much safer to short an hydrogen ETF where liquidity to cover is not an issue as with PLUG. And there would still be bulls who would short the ETF to buy PLUG !
    15 Mar, 01:11 PM Reply Like
  • Fotonomad2
    , contributor
    Comments (28) | Send Message
     
    ZBB: a new offering of 5.5 million shares, plus an option for another 825,000 - all at a price of $2.25! Well, considering this stock traded at 83 CENTS a share just 13 trading days ago (prior to the irrational run-up via the PLUG hysteria) ,and now each ZBB share value is about to become even more diluted, how is an offering at $2.25 justified? Less than 5 months ago ZBB was forced by the NYSE to execute a 5-1 reverse split, just to maintiain their minimum share price and avoid being de-listed altogether. Their last quarterly report was a disaster. Their stock has a very, very small float (1%) allocated for shorting. ZBB was off-radar, until being swept up in the PLUG / Fuel cell buying mania. I can only suggest extreme caution - whether long or short - on this one.
    16 Mar, 11:23 AM Reply Like
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