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Intercept Pharmaceuticals EPS beats by $0.06, misses on revenue

  • Intercept Pharmaceuticals (ICPT): Q4 EPS of -$0.64 beats by $0.06.
  • Revenue of $405K (flat Y/Y) misses by $485K.
  • Says it expects to be able to fund operations into Q3 2015 based upon currently expected level of program commitment and expected operating expenditures.
  • Shares -13.6% AH.
  • Press release
Comments (16)
  • LSYMD
    , contributor
    Comments (71) | Send Message
     
    I am only guessing that the aftermarket weakness in the stock may relate to future studies announced that Wall Street may have not expected to be needed. I continue to focus on GALT, GILD and newly public GLMD. Intercept will have a conference call Monday morning.
    14 Mar, 06:57 PM Reply Like
  • Paulo Santos
    , contributor
    Comments (17737) | Send Message
     
    The revenues aren't in millions ... they're in thousands. Not that it matters much at this point.
    14 Mar, 07:12 PM Reply Like
  • 1980XLS
    , contributor
    Comments (3311) | Send Message
     
    Bubbles bursteth.

     

    Efficient markets indeed.
    14 Mar, 07:24 PM Reply Like
  • Patent News
    , contributor
    Comments (1312) | Send Message
     
    bubble?

     

    buy weakness?
    14 Mar, 08:41 PM Reply Like
  • ACJ
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    If you look at the volume, it is a lot of small trades - mostly at or under 100 shares. This is not the "smart money" fleeing the stock. If there were a heavy hitter dumping, you would expect a consistent downward drop in the after hours trading, and that trend is not there.

     

    Beyond even the mention that Paulo said of thousands not millions, the 10K filed today shows revenues of $1.6M vs $2.4M last year, not at all consistent with the numbers in this release, and really when you are investing in a company because they have a drug that appears to have a multi-billion dollar market potential, is it even worth digging deeper into that minor trickle of licensing revenue? DSP has the rights to OCA in Asia, and they have a minor licensing deal on TGR5.

     

    There doesn't appear to be anything in the 10K to justify the sell-off, and unless that changes then I think there might be some investors who are mighty sorry they panicked before they got the story right.
    15 Mar, 01:47 AM Reply Like
  • sandyseeworld
    , contributor
    Comments (9) | Send Message
     
    I'm just waiting for the money to roll in from the class action suit.
    15 Mar, 01:48 AM Reply Like
  • ACJ
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    My earlier comment did not come through, don't know why.

     

    I see nothing that changes the value proposition that has caused the analysts to upgrade this stock and give it target valuations in the $500 to $700 range. No delays in the development cycle, no surprising studies. The price move makes no sense based upon the release and the 10K.

     

    Revenues are a trifle for this company, they have no drugs in the marketplace, only minor licensing deals. The whole headline does not make sense here. As Paulo Santos pointed out, they are off by a factor of 1000 in the state revenues, and they don't even properly report the revenue figures - which are 2.4M for '12 and 1.6M for '13.
    15 Mar, 02:14 AM Reply Like
  • jawdoc19@gmail.com
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    Medical studies use p-value of 5% for "statistical significance". This means 95% probability adverse effects were due to pure chance. This is great buying opportunity, below 410 would be great.
    15 Mar, 07:05 AM Reply Like
  • khlim115
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message
     
    Heart trouble at ICPT ? This is a must read if you have not seen it already. http://bit.ly/1kT7cKs

     

    While the cardiac events in the two groups were statistically not significant, there may be a trend. The question is will it become statistically significant as the number of users increase?
    15 Mar, 08:58 AM Reply Like
  • ACJ
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    @sandyseeworld What money could possibly roll in from the lawsuit? It seems irrational to argue that stockholders were damaged by later concerns about LDL levels when the stock ultimately priced higher even with that news. In order to win the lawsuit, it must be presumed that a reasonable person could have anticipated the astronomic rise in the price from the first announcement and the subsequent, temporary, drop that partially resulted from the later LDL news.

     

    I have seen these lawsuits that attempt to remedy the damage done to momentum traders before, and don't recall any of them ever resulting in any material settlement. As the latest drop clearly reveals, this is a volatile stock that will react disproportionately to news events. There are two ways to play that, be a long-term holder and know the underlying value proposition, or get out a dart board and try to get your timing just right on your quick buys and sells.
    15 Mar, 11:27 AM Reply Like
  • ACJ
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
     
    @khlim115 - I had time to read that article last night while my postings were in limbo, and it finally offers the explanation for the drop! Nothing in the headline comments or financials offered a plausible explanation, but the cardia events at least offer a reason why some would panic.

     

    It begs the question though, if the high LDL levels that contributed to the first correction did not have staying power, then shouldn't we rationally expect that this drop also will lack staying power? After all, if the high LDL levels really were a significant contributor to any cardiac condition, shouldn't we have seen a statistically significant increase? The NIDDK did not see a statistically significant increase in cardiac incidents, which actually undermines the significance of this report, and also undermines the significance of the LDL levels.

     

    To your specific question, if an incidence rate is not significant in a smaller population, then logically expanding the pool would not inherently increase the odds of statistical significance. It could go either way.

     

    I would be curious to see if someone here thinks that the report changes the value proposition for Intercept.
    15 Mar, 11:31 AM Reply Like
  • khlim115
    , contributor
    Comments (72) | Send Message
     
    ACJ, I cannot disagree with anything you said. It's just too hard to know how this will pan out. Although probable, LDL may not be the main reason for the cardiac event and the current trend may or may not hold. I only have a small position in this (long). I plan to increase my position very slowly as the price fluctuates. I like the fact that Oppenheim upgraded the stock the day of the earnings. Can't comment on their timing, but they must see something they like. No matter what, this one is going to be a wild ride. I cannot think of any other way to trade this stock.
    15 Mar, 04:46 PM Reply Like
  • aggletow
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    There are no surprises in this earnings report. Mostly 1zees and 2 zees trading. Highest trade I saw was 100 shares. The institutional and hedge fund traders are going to have a field day on Monday. I suspect it will close above last Thursday's highs. Anyone that has studied this company knows, there are only 45 employees, a ----load of stock holders equity, no products on the market......but.....their new drug potential has 10's of million patients that will pay to get this drug.
    So....rest up.......Monday will prove to be a wild day in the world of ICPT. I'm not sure those that sold off yesterday should haveC!!
    16 Mar, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • loucaserin
    , contributor
    Comments (27) | Send Message
     
    sunday morning great release..we open over 600 monday. bashers are now dealing with ceo;s that frankly have had enough

     

    ICPT

     

    LJPC

     

    ARNA

     

    ECT ECT

     

    shorting these quality companys is now more then dangerous for your financial life
    16 Mar, 09:51 PM Reply Like
  • LSYMD
    , contributor
    Comments (71) | Send Message
     
    Friday aftermarket trading volumes are historically light and in small lots. I would not be encouraged by the lack of significant trades, as they would likely not be fulfilled. I remain concerned regarding the lipid profile changes and the apparent need for an additional study. I would in no way expect the stock to open higher on Monday. NASH is a prevalent disease and several companies have promising compounds in clinical trials.
    16 Mar, 10:14 PM Reply Like
  • parts1
    , contributor
    Comments (13) | Send Message
     
    10-K 14-03-2014
    http://1.usa.gov/1fCDP7k

     

    There are currently no therapeutic products approved for the treatment of NASH, NAFLD, portal hypertension, complications of cirrhosis or alcoholic hepatitis. There are several marketed therapeutics that are currently used off-label for the treatment of NASH, such as vitamin E (an antioxidant), insulin sensitizers (e.g., metformin), antihyperlipidemic agents (e.g., gemfibrozil), pentoxifylline and ursodiol, but none has been clearly shown in clinical trials to alter the course of the disease. We are aware of several companies that have product candidates in Phase 2 clinical or earlier stage preclinical development for the treatment of NASH, including Gilead Sciences, Inc., Raptor Pharmaceutical Corp., Genfit SA, Galmed Medical Research Ltd., Novo Nordisk A/S, Immuron Ltd., Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd, Phenex Pharmaceuticals AG, Conatus Pharmaceuticals Inc., Galectin Therapeutics Inc., Kadmon Corporation LLC, Tobira Therapeutics, La Jolla Pharmaceutical Company, Lumena Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Mochida Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., and NasVax Ltd.
    17 Mar, 08:38 AM Reply Like
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