JG Capital, which started coverage on Sina (SINA +8.4%) with an Overweight and $110 PT today, thinks Weibo is worth $6.5B. That would spell a $5.1B valuation for Sina's 78% pre-IPO stake - the company's post-IPO stake will be lowered by both the sale of IPO shares, and Alibaba's (ABABA) right to up its stake to 30% from a current 19%.
Weibo disclosed in its F-1 its monthly active user count rose 5% Q/Q and 33% Y/Y in Q4 to 129.1M, in spite of intense competition from Tencent's WeChat. Sina has only been sharing Weibo's daily active users (61.4M at the end of Q4). For reference, Twitter had 241M MAUs at the end of Q4, and WeChat had 271.9M at the end of Q3 (+124% Y/Y).
The Chinese microblogging leader also states Alibaba-related ad/marketing sales totaled $49.1M in 2013 (26% of total revenue), and that its costs/expenses rose 50% on the year to $246.2M.
Weibo had a 2013 adjusted net loss of $30.8M, though that's better than 2012's $100.6M. Adjusted EBITDA was -$6.3M vs. 2012's -$81M.
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