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Japanese quake seen affecting Micron's DRAM output, stabilizing prices

  • Micron (MU) thinks Friday's Japanese earthquake (6.2 on the Richter scale) will affect its DRAM output by a low-single digit percentage over the next 90 days.
  • RBC (Outperform) estimates the quake could affect May quarter revenue and EPS by $50M and $0.02, respectively, and potentially affect its near-term market share.
  • At the same time, the firm thinks the quake could have a stabilizing impact on DRAM prices, which have come under pressure after a very strong 2013 fueled by industry consolidation, strong mobile DRAM demand, and a September fire at an SK Hynix (HXSCL) fab.
  • TrendForce estimates Micron had a 23% Q4 DRAM share. Industry giant Samsung (SSNLF, SSNGY) had a 48.9% share, and Hynix a 25.9% share.
Comments (6)
  • same123
    , contributor
    Comments (92) | Send Message
     
    So they will have blowout earnings anyway. I don't think the. 02 cents will make an effect at all.
    18 Mar, 06:51 PM Reply Like
  • haschultz
    , contributor
    Comments (607) | Send Message
     
    All things equal, a day is ~1.1% of a 90 day quarter (working 24/7 as these plants do). So, this would seem to be around a 2 day impact????
    18 Mar, 08:02 PM Reply Like
  • Ed Porter
    , contributor
    Comments (564) | Send Message
     
    Their quarter has already finished anyway (February). So whatever impact it has will be in the next quarter...
    18 Mar, 08:43 PM Reply Like
  • Dorleans
    , contributor
    Comments (26) | Send Message
     
    Ed Porter is right about this quarter ending. I would think that the firming of prices would more than offset the loss of $.02 from lack of inventory and therefore be a net positive.
    18 Mar, 09:25 PM Reply Like
  • platonicbomb
    , contributor
    Comments (1121) | Send Message
     
    Best case scenario: 'bad' news keeps MU down right up until blowout earnings that immediately push the stock price to $28-30.
    19 Mar, 12:23 AM Reply Like
  • gabecalvo
    , contributor
    Comments (11) | Send Message
     
    Elementary my dear.... Micron will double by Q4...
    19 Mar, 03:44 AM Reply Like
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