Whereas iPhones (AAPL) are typically replaced in the U.S. once every two years (as contracts expire), a CIRP survey of 2K consumers who bought an iPhone, iPad, or Mac in 2013 leads the firm to think iPads will see upgrade cycles closer to Macs (2-4 years) or TVs (5-10 years).
Even as of Dec. 2013, 78% of iPad buyers were purchasing a unit for the first time. That figure is down just moderately from March's 84%, and implies both healthy installed base growth and a slow pace to upgrades. Moreover, upgrading iPad owners were more than twice as likely as iPhone owners to give an older model to a friend or family member.
The survey provides some context for the broader tablet industry's growth slowdown. IDC expects both tablet and smartphone shipments to grow 19% this year, even though the smartphone market is nearly 5x the size of the tablet market.
The iPhone accounted for 56% of Apple's Dec. quarter revenue, and the iPad 20%.
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