Traders pound Exelixis


Shares of Exelixis (EXEL -37.7%) are down big on a 10x surge in volume in response the DMC recommendation to continue the Comet-1 trial. Apparently, many shareholders expected the committee to recommend stopping the trial because of significant efficacy of cabozantinib.

Some observers now believe the drug may not be successful.

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Comments (15)
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4207) | Send Message
     
    This is quite frankly ridiculous. Apparently many observers have no clue as to how difficult clinical trials are. I did not anticipate that the Phase III would be stopped early. I expect it to be a close call but that it will be ok.
    26 Mar 2014, 02:21 PM Reply Like
  • lakeshow5
    , contributor
    Comments (17) | Send Message
     
    Agreed. No one should expect a trial to succeed. The trial being halted because of efficacy was the best case scenario. Biotech is taking a hit as a whole and these people with ridiculous expectations have done nothing, but helped fuel the biotech sell off
    26 Mar 2014, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Bureaucrat
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    I double my holdings today and will buy more, if it goes lower.
    26 Mar 2014, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • fafatooey
    , contributor
    Comments (435) | Send Message
     
    Made a bundle shorting this pig. Thank you God.
    27 Mar 2014, 12:36 AM Reply Like
  • Martin Brenner
    , contributor
    Comments (172) | Send Message
     
    Me too, I'm doubling down first thing in the morning, it'll be back to $6.50 in a month or less. And I just sold a bunch of covered calls on them for .50 cents a contract two weeks ago. And now I can pick up more at half price. It's a beautiful thing.
    27 Mar 2014, 02:52 AM Reply Like
  • PharmacologyPhD
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    I agree... especially given this cohort which is pre-treated ( any prior treatment, in fact). There are several phase 3 right around the corner and the data released last night doesn't suggest anything negative. Wouldn't the study have been pulled if it wasn't showing some reasonable efficacy?

     

    Even that being said most of the news I have read has been positive... I don't understand why it keeps going down.
    27 Mar 2014, 09:43 AM Reply Like
  • Mafp
    , contributor
    Comments (3) | Send Message
     
    Very good morning from Spain. I am a fan of your investment forum and I think they are very useful if we are not lead nor the euphoria nor disillusion. in relation to EXEL say that many pharmaceutical companies are positioned in the clinical analysis of this great company BioPharma, in conclusion to these prices EXEL is a complacent grandisima for both corto.medio long term investment
    A big hello from Madrid Spain
    28 Mar 2014, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • MedTechBio
    , contributor
    Comments (3059) | Send Message
     
    Many outlets suggested competing treatments had their PIII cut short due to efficacy. As a result, though there may be some benefit, if it doesn't exceed what's on the market, it won't be approved, simple as that.
    29 Mar 2014, 10:40 AM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4207) | Send Message
     
    The other stuff on the market doesn't do anything about the bone metastasis that you find in the disease. Also, the other trials had a different design and the $EXEL trial had no futility analysis at this point and thus couldn't be stopped early. No one seems to understand these simple facts.

     

    When $ECYT was at $4 and $3 I also bought a ton. Guess who was laughing recently ;P? Me. And that is all recorded. On $ARIA I bought in heavy when it was sub $3. Guess who sold at $10? And what am I doing here? I BUY! Do I care whether I buy at $3.3 or $4.2 - no, not much!
    29 Mar 2014, 12:27 PM Reply Like
  • MedTechBio
    , contributor
    Comments (3059) | Send Message
     
    No futility, but it had efficacy analysis. They would have stopped it if efficacy was overwhelming in favor.
    29 Mar 2014, 02:48 PM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4207) | Send Message
     
    "overwhelming in favor" is pretty rare, isn't it? Also, you haven't countered the mets argument. Obviously, I would have loved an early stop but it wasn't likely. I still think even reduction in pain for patients with bone metastasis would justify using the medication.

     

    But we have to wait now which I will patiently do.
    29 Mar 2014, 03:21 PM Reply Like
  • MedTechBio
    , contributor
    Comments (3059) | Send Message
     
    Look I agree it will have use, but there was some expectation that it would be stopped. Too much wishful thinking? Yes. We both agree on that. That's what caused the price drop. Simple. The biggest risk is use in a small subset of patients, that's what is playing out now. Not likely that it will dominate the market, hence, selloff.
    29 Mar 2014, 04:12 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Bureaucrat
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    How long do we have to wait for the trial to be completed and and any results on efficacy announced?
    30 Mar 2014, 09:38 PM Reply Like
  • TruffelPig
    , contributor
    Comments (4207) | Send Message
     
    5-6 months I guess.
    30 Mar 2014, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • Retired Bureaucrat
    , contributor
    Comments (36) | Send Message
     
    Thanks.
    1 Apr 2014, 11:07 PM Reply Like
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