Seeking Alpha

Treasurys set for first monthly loss of year

  • If this is a bear move, bulls say "bring it on." The 10-year Treasury yield (including today's 3 bp increase) is at 2.71% vs. 2.67% at the start of March. Not a perfect gauge, the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is actually higher by 0.8% this month.
  • The move in fixed-income comes as the S&P 500 held flat and the FOMC signaled a sooner-than-expected end to QE and quicker-than-expected possible boost in the Fed Funds rate. More tied to what the Fed may or may not do with its benchmark, the 2-year note yield jumped a big 14 basis points to 0.45% in March.
  • Taken together, the yield curve is flatter today than it was at the start of the month - not great news for those trying to earn a spread - and maybe suggesting slower growth going forward amid a Fed thinking of tapping the brakes on the economy.
  • ETFs: TBT, TLT, TMV, SHY, IEF, TBF, PST, EDV, TTT, TMF, SBND, ZROZ, TLH, IEI, DLBS, TYO, DTYS, VGLT, BIL, UST, SHV, TBX, UBT, VGIT, VGSH, TLO, SCHO, GSY, DTYL, SCHR, ITE, LBND, TENZ, TYD, TYBS, DTUL, SST, DTUS, TUZ, TBZ, DFVL, FIVZ, DFVS, DLBL, TYNS
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