Plug Power -4%, article says unlikely DCF analysis implies $2.50 share price

Early gains turn to sharp losses after Kerrisdale Capital, which Notable Calls labels a "smart money short," is out with a negative article on Plug Power (PLUG -3.8%).

Kerrisdale believes PLUG is worth less than $2.50/share even in a best-case discounted cash flow scenario where it achieves its $70M revenue target in 2014, quadruples its sales over an eight-year period, and achieves a long-term gross profit target of 32%; in the much more likely scenario that PLUG disappoints investors and misses its long-term guidance targets, PLUG shares are worth much less.

Evidence strongly suggests that fuel cells will remain a niche solution in the warehouse, the writer adds, a criticism leveled earlier by a top GE executive.

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Comments (14)
  • Weighing Machine
    , contributor
    Comments (912) | Send Message
    This is probably the best short I have ever seen.
    2 Apr 2014, 11:42 AM Reply Like
  • Doc's Trading
    , contributor
    Comments (1847) | Send Message
    PLUG... Am still recommending shorting the stock but with the same stop of $9.11 as before. There is NO reason for the stock to trade over $9. Also suggest selling calls and buying puts.
    Another idea: sell the 8 calls, buy the 8 puts and buy stock....Wait for right moment and sell the stock opening up a double short position..... This is called "putting on a "conversion"...."
    more later....
    2 Apr 2014, 12:01 PM Reply Like
  • leopardtrader
    , contributor
    Comments (3804) | Send Message
    Those Mr. Know all that are better than PLUG the company, Walmart and FEdex et all must get it that market will continue to be irrational as long as you are liquid. PLUG is at the center of a disruptive industry that the time is here. PLUG will likely trade above $20 this year or even higher. Spreading of panic by short term "gamers" are only for entertainment and for the media talk shows. Investors bet with money and are patient enough to allow what they have planted to mature to harvest
    2 Apr 2014, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Weighing Machine
    , contributor
    Comments (912) | Send Message
    Ignore Leo's jibberish. Being long PLUG will only disrupt your path to building wealth! Short PLUG. Short Leopard.
    2 Apr 2014, 01:51 PM Reply Like
    , contributor
    Comments (69) | Send Message
    I hope your shorting this weighing machine. That way you can see how bad it feels to get bashed
    2 Apr 2014, 05:41 PM Reply Like
  • Weighing Machine
    , contributor
    Comments (912) | Send Message
    From the way you misspelled your I can see you are very bright Brando
    3 Apr 2014, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • User 509088
    , contributor
    Comments (1749) | Send Message
    not me, leopard, I ride the rides and eat the candy floss and that's part of how I make my money. short term gains and falls allow me to increase my load with opm.
    2 Apr 2014, 12:17 PM Reply Like
  • Doewap
    , contributor
    Comments (1037) | Send Message
    This sort of 'news flash' lacks a disclaimer.


    I suggest: 'The SA Editorial Team is Short Plug Power'
    2 Apr 2014, 02:02 PM Reply Like
  • litefun1
    , contributor
    Comments (38) | Send Message
    This is how Shorts work:


    They write a Negative article and put it by their bedside.


    Then they go long and enjoy the ride. They sell at short term tops, buy puts, and then hit the PUBLISH button. If you look into their eyes you will see a devilish smile.


    And then oftimes, the smile turns into a stare as the article fails to have a long enough impact.


    Rings a bell?
    2 Apr 2014, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • Amatot
    , contributor
    Comments (12) | Send Message
    So I can look up the 200 day moving average and say the same thing $2.60 yes I would love to get in at the 200 day moving average also. This is what I think. There is not enough to go around at 103.48mil and a float of 89.65mil Ride it out Oh remember an other contract coming soon. DD long PLUG
    2 Apr 2014, 09:38 PM Reply Like
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
    I'm afraid that the GE scientist is quite right about fuel cells. The economics don't work out when the electricity that you produce costs more than the energy used to create it.
    2 Apr 2014, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • Doorsman
    , contributor
    Comments (22) | Send Message
    You've got to love the stock market! This stock is certainly not for the feint of
    heart! But there is much money to be made either way,like they say TIMING IS
    3 Apr 2014, 07:35 AM Reply Like
  • GameKing13
    , contributor
    Comments (725) | Send Message
    Doorsman: yeah but it's quite difficult to do that right
    3 Apr 2014, 07:48 AM Reply Like
    , contributor
    Comments (2) | Send Message
    I am a scientist who has reasonable familiarity with the technology and economics of fuel cells. My interest in the stock market, like all of these good responders is to try to make a dollar or two.
    3 Apr 2014, 05:10 PM Reply Like
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