Pandora +3.5% premarket following March audience metrics


Pandora's (P) listener hours rose 14% Y/Y in March to 1.71B. That growth rate is above February's 9% and January's 13%.

On the other hand, active listeners were flat M/M at 75.3M. They were up 8% Y/Y vs. 11% in February.

Pandora's U.S. radio listening share rose to 9.11% from 8.91% in February and 8.05% a year ago.

As previously announced, the company will stop providing monthly audience metrics following its May report. Quarterly numbers will still be posted.

Shares have fallen over 20% since the February metrics were released.

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Comments (14)
  • manicdvln
    , contributor
    Comments (1545) | Send Message
     
    These metrics are so messy you don't really know what is going on. But let's take them face value.

     

    75.3M ACTIVE LISTENERS not individual users which is flat from last month and down since its peak in Dec.

     

    9.11% of total US population is 28.3m users who are listening 2.6x a day. Which means they are not adding new users in Pandora, just the loyal ones keep listening more which is exact scenario that Pandora doesn't want since majority of its listeners are kids with no income raising the costs of Pandora with increased listening hours on their ad platform.

     

    This company has no growth left, just fudges numbers and when the bad starts they want to hide them. No profits over 10 years. Insiders keep selling at historical levels in high volume.

     

    THIS COMPANY WILL NEVER MAKE ANY SUSTAINABLE MONEY. Another dot com era bubble type stock.
    3 Apr 2014, 09:34 AM Reply Like
  • dgulick
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    "9.11% of total US population"

     

    Lol, 9.11% is the percent of US radio *listening*, not US population (and I know you know this, just like to spew your short thesis everywhere you can), and is a HUGE increase! Average hours/listener/month at an all time high of 22.7hrs (0.73 hrs/day). Flat active users, true, but higher engagement overall is the metric that sells ads.

     

    And the majority of P's listeners is between 25-54 yrs old (which you also know), with the average age of a P listener is 35 (which you also know), an enormous ad platform, ever look at their ad partners? BMW, Ford, Toyota, Hilton, Hyatt, Carnival, Westin Hotels, Shane Co., in addition to more mainstream, McDonalds, Coke, Budweiser, AT&T, Verizon, Home Depot, Comcast, Microsoft, Intel, Ebay, Walmart, Target, Wendy's, Whole Foods, etc.
    3 Apr 2014, 11:14 AM Reply Like
  • manicdvln
    , contributor
    Comments (1545) | Send Message
     
    Exactly dgulick the actual individual users listening to Pandora is actually much less than 28.3m because that's in theory and not possible that everyone is listening at once at all times.

     

    So you shooting yourself in the foot here. Reality is individuals listening to Pandora is very tiny and Pandora needs to come up with shady metrics to spruce up their market share.

     

    70% of people already have a smartphone in USA, and majority of that are the youth. Which means Pandora has no growth left and this is telling from flat active listeners month to month.

     

    There is no secret weapon here for Pandora, even their own employees have stated in Roccos they were just lucky in growth since they were the first.

     

    Not so anymore with the giant techs in the game and so are many little fish that will tear apart Pandora remaining core users.

     

    Spotify 4.99$ for students is reason enough for Pandora subs to decline.

     

    Even the dinosaurs at CNBC know that higher listening hours is bad for Pandora and they haven't made a dime since inception several years ago.
    3 Apr 2014, 12:58 PM Reply Like
  • dgulick
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    "just lucky in growth"

     

    1.7B hrs in March! That's up +8% over Pandora's next highest month ever! A record set just 2 months ago! Where's the competition?????? Beats, Milk, iTunes Radio, iHeartRadio, Spotify, Google Play All Access???

     

    Ask yourself, with the "giant techs in the game", how is it that Pandora's market share just continues to grow and grow? Now 9.1% of all US radio listening!
    3 Apr 2014, 01:10 PM Reply Like
  • umm??
    , contributor
    Comment (1) | Send Message
     
    9.11% is market share, not share of population who uses the product. That is, 9% of all radio hours in US were streamed through Pandora.

     

    And more listening hours isn't a bad thing if they're monetizing at a faster rate (which they are). That means improved margins.

     

    You make grand claims but clearly don't understand the basics of the business.
    3 Apr 2014, 07:28 PM Reply Like
  • dgulick
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    Try as you may, you won't get through. I just end up correcting him every time he makes that comment, which is a lot. @manic is a P short that has gotten creamed by the run P has been on, he doesn't care for facts.
    3 Apr 2014, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • The-Stein
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    What a joke. Listener hours rise ~20% month over month, due to the increase in days in March over February. Active users remains static. Where is the growth and how is this good news?
    3 Apr 2014, 09:54 AM Reply Like
  • The-Stein
    , contributor
    Comments (23) | Send Message
     
    U.S. radio share is another meaningless metric. As users switch to subscription based services, the entire radio market will shrink. So a growing share in a decreasing market isn't necessarily a bullish indicator
    3 Apr 2014, 10:11 AM Reply Like
  • dgulick
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    P is not "growing share in a decreasing market". The U.S. radio share that P reports already includes subscription (SiriusXM at 8% of total) it just does not include on-demand streaming. And it's not shrinking, relatively constant 18B hrs/month representing ~80% of all music listening. But is definitely under assault, not just from P, though P is the fastest growing.
    3 Apr 2014, 01:16 PM Reply Like
  • Andrei Volgin
    , contributor
    Comments (624) | Send Message
     
    You know very well that iTunes Radio is the fastest growing, not Pandora. iTR added 20 million users since last September. Pandora added 2.6 million.

     

    As for the market share, iTunes Radio, Spotify (which also has a radio feature), Google All Access, Songza, Beats, Milk, Nokia MixRadio - none of these services are included in your "radio market". How convenient.

     

    Not to mention that the total number of hours for the "radio" market is calculated by asking a few random people questions:

     

    "Did you listen to a radio last month?"
    "Yeah..."
    "How many hours did you listen to a radio last month?"
    "I don't know..."
    "How about I put down 30 hours?"
    "Ok, I guess..."

     

    These reports are produced by a radio association that tries to prove that they are not a dying breed.
    3 Apr 2014, 01:31 PM Reply Like
  • dgulick
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    iTR added 20M in the first month, where are they now? 20.8M, that's only 800k in 5 months! Who's growing faster? P!

     

    And as for your market share, sure, count them, count them all, let me know what you come up with! (Milk, Nokia, Songza, Lol. Beats now at 28k listeners! Lol.)

     

    But sure, maybe the radio association is inflating listening hrs, but that makes P's increasing share of a fixed number a fine metric. We could look at P's share of ALL MUSIC LISTENING, it would still be growing at the same clip.

     

    Or lets just take the +8% increase in hours over P's prior record month set just 2 months ago at face value, that is GROWTH!!
    3 Apr 2014, 01:55 PM Reply Like
  • Andrei Volgin
    , contributor
    Comments (624) | Send Message
     
    This year March is flat. Last year Pandora added 1.8m users in March. In fact, Pandora lost 0.9m users since December.

     

    Enjoy you 8% yoy growth while it lasts. This rate is dropping for 14 months in a row now.

     

    Your argument about Beats is valid - Pandora is falling apart on its own, not because of Beats. There was absolutely nothing special about this March that can be used as an excuse to explain flat number of users.
    3 Apr 2014, 02:18 PM Reply Like
  • dgulick
    , contributor
    Comments (2324) | Send Message
     
    As you know, I look at listener hours, because that is what advertisers look at. And growth has reaccelerated 1.7B hrs is +15% y/y, up from +9% y/y last month, not "falling apart" at all, an ad platform whose growth is accelerating.
    3 Apr 2014, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • manicdvln
    , contributor
    Comments (1545) | Send Message
     
    $SOCL broke its 200 day support, this is the beginning of the bursting of bubble stocks, including $P

     

    Like I said, a huge risk to go long when markets are ATH and bubble stocks sitting on support levels.
    3 Apr 2014, 02:47 PM Reply Like
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